This bibliography provides a list of known publications that have utilised data in the ALA or ALA infrastructure to support their research. The inclusion of publications remains a work in progress and this list will grow as the ALA works through historical data. If you have any questions please contact us at ala_references@csiro.au.

Have you used data in the ALA or ALA infrastructure in your publication (such as scientific journal, report, book chapter, thesis, etc) and it isn’t listed here? Please let us know about it via this form.

2021

  1. Alfonzetti, M., Rivers, M. C., Auld, T. D., Breton, T. L., Cooney, T., Stuart, S., Zimmer, H., Makinson, R., Wilkins, K., Delgado, E., Dimitrova, N., & Gallagher, R. V. (2021). Shortfalls in extinction risk assessments for plants. Australian Journal of Botany, 68(6), 466–471. https://doi.org/10.1071/BT20106

    Australian Journal of Botany
    Abstract

    Research on species recovery‚ reintroduction‚ and conservation disproportionally focusses on birds and mammals. Typically‚ less attention is given to hyper-diverse but ecologically important groups such as plants and invertebrates. In this study‚ we focussed on a continent with one of the world’s highest proportions of endemic plant species (Australia) comparing the number of extinction risk assessments relative to birds and mammals. Specifically‚ we generated a checklist of Australian endemic vascular plants and used three resources which differ in styles and scope to collate information on how many have an extinction risk assessment – the ThreatSearch database‚ International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List‚ and Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999‚ (EPBC Act). Between 76 and 93% of endemic Australian plants examined lack an extinction risk assessment based on data from our three sources. We also compared the proportions of endemic plants assessed relative to birds and mammals. Of all endemic plant taxa examined‚ only 6.8% have been assessed under the EPBC Act‚ compared with 9.4% of birds and 28.9% of mammals. Similarly‚ only 8.8% of endemic plants have been assessed for the IUCN Red List‚ compared with 29.1% of birds and 61.1% of mammals‚ whereas all birds and mammals have been examined in National Action Plans. This represents a significant underestimation of the actual proportion of Australian endemic plants that are likely to satisfy extinction-risk criteria for listing as threatened. This shortfall in risk assessments for plants is a matter of international significance for conservation given Australia’s high rate of plant endemism. A change in policy and approach to assessing extinction risk is needed to ensure adequate assessment effort across different taxonomic groups.
    Citation

    Alfonzetti, M., Rivers, M. C., Auld, T. D., Breton, T. L., Cooney, T., Stuart, S., Zimmer, H., Makinson, R., Wilkins, K., Delgado, E., Dimitrova, N., & Gallagher, R. V. (2021). Shortfalls in extinction risk assessments for plants. Australian Journal of Botany, 68(6), 466–471. https://doi.org/10.1071/BT20106

  2. Lozano, V. (2021). Distribution of Five Aquatic Plants Native to South America and Invasive Elsewhere under Current Climate. Ecologies, 2(1), 27–42. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies2010003

    Ecologies
    Ecologies
    Abstract

    Biological invasions and climate pose two of the most important challenges facing global biodiversity. Certainly‚ climate change may intensify the impacts of invasion by allowing invasive plants to increase in abundance and further expand their ranges. For example‚ most aquatic alien plants in temperate climate are of tropical and subtropical origins and the northern limits of their ranges are generally determined by minimum winter temperatures‚ and they will probably expand their distributions northwards if climate warms. The distribution of five invasive aquatic plants in freshwater systems across continents were investigated. Their global distributions in the current climate were modeled using a recently developed ensemble species distribution model approach‚ specifically designed to account for dispersal constraints on the distributions of range-expanding species. It was found that the species appear capable of substantial range expansion‚ and that low winter temperature is the strongest factor limiting their invasion. These findings can be used to identify areas at risk of recently introduction of neophytes‚ and develop future monitoring programs for aquatic ecosystems‚ prioritizing control efforts‚ which enables the effective use of ecological niche models to forecast aquatic invasion in other geographic regions.
    Citation

    Lozano, V. (2021). Distribution of Five Aquatic Plants Native to South America and Invasive Elsewhere under Current Climate. Ecologies, 2(1), 27–42. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies2010003

  3. Lucas, J., & Harris, R. M. B. (2021). Changing Climate Suitability for Dominant Eucalyptus Species May Affect Future Fuel Loads and Flammability in Tasmania. Fire, 4(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4010001

    Fire
    Fire
    Abstract

    Fire management is becoming increasingly relevant in our changing climate as fire frequency and intensity increases both on a global scale and locally in Tasmania. The distribution of fuel across the landscape has significant impacts on fire regimes‚ influencing connectivity and flammability of fuel load. Remote sensing techniques are often used to assess current fuel loads‚ but projections of future fuel distributions are necessary for longer term planning of fire management. Eucalyptus species are an important‚ dominant component of many Tasmanian forests‚ influencing fuel load and flammability. We modelled the current and future climate suitability for two Eucalyptus species (E. delegatensis and E. obliqua)‚ using a suite of species distribution models (SDMs) and global climate models (GCMs) for mid (2041–2060) and end of century (2061–2080) time periods. The implications these changes may have for the distribution of these important fuel species in the future are discussed. All GCMs projected notable changes in potential distribution‚ with both species contracting substantially in some areas and E. obliqua also exhibiting considerable expansions in the west of Tasmania. On average‚ suitability for E. delegatensis expanded by 5% ± 1.8% (1658 km2)‚ contracted by 67% ± 22.7% (24‚591 km2) and remained unchanged in 26% ± 7.8% (8783 km2) by the end of the century. For E. obliqua suitability expanded by a much greater 17% ± 6.3% (24‚398 km2)‚ contracted by slightly less at 55% ± 16.8% (81‚098 km2) and remained unchanged in 45% ± 16.8% (63‚474 km2) by the end of the century. These changes in climate suitability have the potential to cause changes in the composition and structure of Tasmania’s forests‚ impacting fuel loads. However‚ the two species exhibited different responses‚ reflecting their current distributions and suggesting that generalisations regarding species’ responses to changing climates are not appropriate‚ even where the species are closely related. These results suggest that future fuel loads and flammability at the landscape scale may change‚ requiring longitudinal‚ flexible and adaptive future fire management. Assessing the specific effects of distributional changes and the mechanisms driving different responses to climate change are highlighted as further research opportunities.
    Citation

    Lucas, J., & Harris, R. M. B. (2021). Changing Climate Suitability for Dominant Eucalyptus Species May Affect Future Fuel Loads and Flammability in Tasmania. Fire, 4(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire4010001

  4. Ryeland, J., Derham, T. T., & Spencer, R. J. (2021). Past and future potential range changes in one of the last large vertebrates of the Australian continent, the emu Dromaius novaehollandiae. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 851. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79551-0

    Scientific Reports
    Abstract

    In Australia‚ significant shifts in species distribution have occurred with the loss of megafauna‚ changes in indigenous Australian fire regime and land-use changes with European settlement. The emu‚ one of the last megafaunal species in Australia‚ has likely undergone substantial distribution changes‚ particularly near the east coast of Australia where urbanisation is extensive and some populations have declined. We modelled emu distribution across the continental mainland and across the Great Dividing Range region (GDR) of eastern Australia‚ under historical‚ present and future climates. We predicted shifts in emu distribution using ensemble modelling‚ hindcasting and forecasting distribution from current emu occurrence data. Emus have expanded their range northward into central Australia over the 6000 years modelled here. Areas west of the GDR have become more suitable since the mid-Holocene‚ which was unsuitable then due to high precipitation seasonality. However‚ the east coast of Australia has become climatically sub-optimal and will remain so for at least 50 years. The north east of NSW encompasses the range of the only listed endangered population‚ which now occurs at the margins of optimal climatic conditions for emus. Being at the fringe of suitable climatic conditions may put this population at higher risk of further decline from non-climatic anthropogenic disturbances e.g. depredation by introduced foxes and pigs. The limited scientific knowledge about wild emu ecology and biology currently available limits our ability to quantify these risks.
    Citation

    Ryeland, J., Derham, T. T., & Spencer, R. J. (2021). Past and future potential range changes in one of the last large vertebrates of the Australian continent, the emu Dromaius novaehollandiae. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 851. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79551-0

2020

  1. Anderson, J., Keppel, G., Thomson, S.-M., Gibbs, J., & Brunetti, G. (2020). High diversity of native plants and vegetation types in the Morialta Conservation Park and the threat of invasive species. Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/03721426.2020.1786779

    Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia
    Abstract

    Morialta Conservation Park is a scenic protected area that contains important vegetation remnants of the Mount Lofty Ranges. Here we investigate the vegetation ecology‚ soils and plant diversity of the park. Using a stratified‚ quantitative survey of woody vegetation and topsoils throughout the park within forty-five 10 × 10 m plots‚ we identified ten distinct vegetation types‚ nine being native and the other being dominated by the invasive European olive (Olea europaea). Soil conductivity and fertility‚ as well as aspect‚ were significant predictors of species composition‚ indicating that high environmental heterogeneity in soils and topography are important in facilitating the high biodiversity in the Morialta Conservation Park. The European olive and Boneseed (Chrysanthemoides monilifera ssp. monilifera) are widespread in the park and a threat to native vegetation. Using published plant lists and the Atlas of Living Australia‚ we report 486 native (and 300 introduced) plant taxa from the park and its immediate surrounds‚ including species considered endangered at either the state or national level‚ or the IUCN Red List. Therefore‚ the park is highly important for conservation and the threat posed by the European olive‚ Boneseed and other invasive species should be effectively managed.
    Citation

    Anderson, J., Keppel, G., Thomson, S.-M., Gibbs, J., & Brunetti, G. (2020). High diversity of native plants and vegetation types in the Morialta Conservation Park and the threat of invasive species. Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/03721426.2020.1786779

  2. Bein, B., Ebach, M. C., Laffan, S. W., Murphy, D. J., & Cassis, G. (2020). Quantifying vertebrate zoogeographical regions of Australia using geospatial turnover in the species composition of mammals, birds, reptiles and terrestrial amphibians. Zootaxa, 4802(1), 61–81. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.4802.1.4

    Zootaxa
    Zootaxa
    Abstract

    A geospatial analysis of 1‚906‚302 records of 1938 species of Australian vertebrates has shown that the original regions proposed in the 19th century‚ namely the Eyrean‚ Torresian and Bassian still hold. The analysis has shown that the Eyrean region has an east-west divide‚ forming two‚ possibly independent arid regions (Eastern Desert and Western Desert provinces)‚ that are shaped by topography and rainfall. A revised and interim zoogeographical area taxonomy of the Australian region is presented herein.
    Citation

    Bein, B., Ebach, M. C., Laffan, S. W., Murphy, D. J., & Cassis, G. (2020). Quantifying vertebrate zoogeographical regions of Australia using geospatial turnover in the species composition of mammals, birds, reptiles and terrestrial amphibians. Zootaxa, 4802(1), 61–81. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.4802.1.4

  3. Bino, G., Kingsford, R. T., & Wintle, B. A. (2020). A stitch in time – Synergistic impacts to platypus metapopulation extinction risk. Biological Conservation, 242, 108399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108399

    Biological Conservation
    Abstract

    The unique platypus is currently listed as ‘Near-Threatened’ under the IUCN Red List based on observed population declines and local extinctions‚ though significant uncertainty exists about its current distribution and abundance. We did the first population viability analysis across its entire range‚ using distribution and metapopulation data and models that integrate key threatening processes. We quantified the individual and synergistic impacts of water resource development‚ land clearing and invasive species on population viability of the platypus. Under current climate and threats‚ platypus abundance and metapopulation occupancy were predicted to respectively decline by 47%–66% and 22%–32% over 50 years. This would cause extinction of local populations across about 40% of the range. Under climate change projections (2070)‚ increased extreme drought frequencies and duration were predicted to further expose platypuses to increased local extinctions‚ reducing abundance and metapopulation occupancy by 51–73% and 36–56% within 50 years respectively. Predicted estimates of key threatening processes on platypus populations strongly suggested increased risk of extinction‚ including listing as ‘Vulnerable’‚ under IUCN criterion A. This adds to the increasing evidence of decline and local extinction of platypus populations. There is an urgent need to implement national conservation efforts for this unique mammal by increasing surveys‚ tracking trends‚ mitigating threats and improving management of platypus habitat in rivers.
    Citation

    Bino, G., Kingsford, R. T., & Wintle, B. A. (2020). A stitch in time – Synergistic impacts to platypus metapopulation extinction risk. Biological Conservation, 242, 108399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108399

  4. Bello, C., Cintra, A. L. P., Barreto, E., Vancine, M. H., Sobral-Souza, T., Graham, C. H., & Galetti, M. (2020). Environmental niche and functional role similarity between invasive and native palms in the Atlantic Forest. Biological Invasions. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-020-02400-8

    Biological Invasions
    Abstract

    Invasive species can significantly affect native species when their niches are similar. Ecological and morphological similarities between the invasive Australian palm‚ Archontophoenix cunninghamiana‚ and the native palm from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest‚ Euterpe edulis‚ suggest that they have similar environmental requirements and functional roles (i.e.‚ the function a species performs in an ecosystem). This similarity raises concerns about how the invasive palm could impact the native species in the present and future. We used spatial (species occurrences) and ecological information (frugivory events) to characterize the environmental niche and functional role of the two palms and assess their overlap. In addition‚ we predicted the potential area of occurrence of each palm within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest under current and future climate conditions.We estimated the environmental conditions used by the invasive plant based on its native distribution only‚ and based on all areas where the species is able to establish across the globe. We found that the environmental niches of the two palm species overlap up to 39%‚ which corresponds to 50% of the current geographic distribution of E. edulis in the Atlantic Forest. In the areas where the two species potentially co-occur‚ the impact of the invasive species on the native should be influenced by the invasive species interactions with frugivores. We found that the frugivory functional role of the two palms was similar (84% overlap) which suggest that A. cunninghamiana might disrupt the seed dispersal of the native palm. However‚ co-occurrence between the palms may decline with future climate change‚ as the potentially environmental suitable area for the invasive palm is predicted to decline by 10% to 55%. Evaluating the similarity in both the environmental niche‚ of the native and global extent‚ and the functional role of native and invasive plants provides a detailed understanding of the potential impact of invasive species on native species now and in the future.
    Citation

    Bello, C., Cintra, A. L. P., Barreto, E., Vancine, M. H., Sobral-Souza, T., Graham, C. H., & Galetti, M. (2020). Environmental niche and functional role similarity between invasive and native palms in the Atlantic Forest. Biological Invasions. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-020-02400-8

  5. Booth, T. H., & Muir, P. R. (2020). Climate change impacts on Australia’s eucalypt and coral species: Comparing and sharing knowledge across disciplines. WIREs Climate Change, e657. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.657

    WIREs Climate Change
    Abstract

    Two of Australia’s most iconic ecosystems have recently sustained heavy damage related to climatic changes: the extensive eucalypt forests from catastrophic bushfires and the Great Barrier Reef from mass coral bleaching. Despite obvious differences‚ eucalypt trees and reef corals share some similarities in biology and ecology‚ particularly in relation to climate change impacts and adaptation. Both groups are the focus of an increasing research effort to characterize and respond to climate changes and here we examine how sharing research experiences can benefit both fields. Four key areas of research are considered: (a) modeling current distributions‚ (b) assessing impacts of climate change on future distributions‚ (c) using human-assisted migration to improve survival‚ and (d) applying genetic enhancement to improve the species’ survival. Examples of each research area are used to examine potential crossovers‚ limitations of the methods‚ and future requirements. We conclude that eucalypt and coral researchers‚ and indeed researchers for many other endangered taxa‚ can gain much by comparing experiences and methods‚ despite the apparent differences in their respective taxa. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change
    Citation

    Booth, T. H., & Muir, P. R. (2020). Climate change impacts on Australia’s eucalypt and coral species: Comparing and sharing knowledge across disciplines. WIREs Climate Change, e657. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.657

  6. Brennan, I. G., Lemmon, A. R., Lemmon, E. M., Portik, D. M., Weijola, V., Welton, L., Donnellan, S. C., & Keogh, J. S. (2020). Phylogenomics of monitor lizards and the role of competition in dictating body size disparity. Systematic Biology. https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syaa046

    Systematic Biology
    Abstract

    Organismal interactions drive the accumulation of diversity by influencing species ranges‚ morphology‚ and behavior. Interactions vary from agonistic to cooperative and should result in predictable patterns in trait and range evolution. However‚ despite a conceptual understanding of these processes‚ they have been difficult to model‚ particularly on macroevolutionary timescales and across broad geographic spaces. Here we investigate the influence of biotic interactions on trait evolution and community assembly in monitor lizards (Varanus). Monitors are an iconic radiation with a cosmopolitan distribution and the greatest size disparity of any living terrestrial vertebrate genus. Between the colossal Komodo dragon Varanus komodoensis and the smallest Australian dwarf goannas‚ Varanus length and mass vary by multiple orders of magnitude. To test the hypothesis that size variation in this genus was driven by character displacement‚ we extended existing phylogenetic comparative methods which consider lineage interactions to account for dynamic biogeographic history and apply these methods to Australian monitors and marsupial predators. Incorporating both exon-capture molecular and morphological datasets we use a combined evidence approach to estimate the relationships among living and extinct varaniform lizards. Our results suggest that communities of Australian Varanus show high functional diversity as a result of continent-wide interspecific competition among monitors but not with faunivorous marsupials. We demonstrate that patterns of trait evolution resulting from character displacement on continental scales are recoverable from comparative data and highlight that these macroevolutionary patterns may develop in parallel across widely distributed sympatric groups.
    Citation

    Brennan, I. G., Lemmon, A. R., Lemmon, E. M., Portik, D. M., Weijola, V., Welton, L., Donnellan, S. C., & Keogh, J. S. (2020). Phylogenomics of monitor lizards and the role of competition in dictating body size disparity. Systematic Biology. https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syaa046

  7. Brookes, D. R., Hereward, J. P., Wilson, L. J., & Walter, G. H. (2020). Multiple invasions of a generalist herbivore—Secondary contact between two divergent lineages of Nezara viridula Linnaeus in Australia. Evolutionary Applications. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12971

    Evolutionary Applications
    Abstract

    The presence of distinct evolutionary lineages within herbivorous pest insect taxa requires close attention. Scientific understanding‚ biosecurity planning and practice‚ and pest management decision-making each suffer when such situations remain poorly understood. The pest bug Nezara viridula Linnaeus has been recorded from numerous host plants and has two globally distributed mitochondrial (mtDNA) lineages. These mtDNA lineages co-occur in few locations globally‚ and the consequences of their divergence and recent secondary contact have not been assessed. We present evidence that both mtDNA lineages of N. viridula are present in Australia and their haplotype groups have a mostly separate distribution from one another. The north-western population has only Asian mtDNA haplotypes‚ and the population with an eastern distribution is characterized mostly by European mtDNA haplotypes. Haplotypes of both lineages were detected together at only one site in the north of eastern Australia‚ and microsatellite data indicate that this secondary contact has resulted in mating across the lineages. Admixture and the movement of mtDNA haplotypes outside of this limited area of overlap has not‚ however‚ been extensive. Some degree of mating incompatibility or differences in the climatic requirements and tolerances of the two lineages‚ and perhaps a combination of these influences‚ might limit introgression and the movement of individuals‚ but this needs to be tested. This work provides the foundation for further ecological investigation of the lineages of N. viridula‚ particularly the consequences of admixture on the ecology of this widespread pest. We propose that for now‚ the Asian and European lineages of N. viridula would best be investigated as subspecies‚ so that “pure” and admixed populations of this bug can each be considered directly with respect to management and research priorities.
    Citation

    Brookes, D. R., Hereward, J. P., Wilson, L. J., & Walter, G. H. (2020). Multiple invasions of a generalist herbivore—Secondary contact between two divergent lineages of Nezara viridula Linnaeus in Australia. Evolutionary Applications. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12971

  8. Burns, P. A., Clemann, N., & White, M. (2020). Testing the utility of species distribution modelling using Random Forests for a species in decline. Austral Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12884

    Austral Ecology
    Abstract

    Habitat suitability estimates derived from species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to guide management of threatened species. Poorly estimating species’ ranges can lead to underestimation of threatened status‚ undervaluing of remaining habitat and misdirection of conservation funding. We aimed to evaluate the utility of a SDM‚ similar to the models used to inform government regulation of habitat in our study region‚ in estimating the contemporary distribution of a threatened and declining species. We developed a presence-only SDM for the endangered New Holland Mouse (Pseudomys novaehollandiae) across Victoria‚ Australia. We conducted extensive camera trap surveys across model-predicted and expert-selected areas to generate an independent data set for use in evaluating the model‚ determining confidence in absence data from non-detection sites with occupancy and detectability modelling. We assessed the predictive capacity of the model at thresholds based on (1) sum of sensitivity and specificity (SSS)‚ and (2) the lowest presence threshold (LPT; i.e. the lowest non-zero model-predicted habitat suitability value at which we detected the species). We detected P. novaehollandiae at 40 of 472 surveyed sites‚ with strong support for the species’ probable absence from non-detection sites. Based on our post hoc optimised SSS threshold of the SDM‚ 25% of our detection sites were falsely predicted as non-suitable habitat and 75% of sites predicted as suitable habitat did not contain the species at the time of our survey. One occupied site had a model-predicted suitability value of zero‚ and at the LPT‚ 88% of sites predicted as suitable habitat did not contain the species at the time of our survey. Our findings demonstrate that application of generic SDMs in both regulatory and investment contexts should be tempered by considering their limitations and currency. Further‚ we recommend engaging species experts in the extrapolation and application of SDM outputs.
    Citation

    Burns, P. A., Clemann, N., & White, M. (2020). Testing the utility of species distribution modelling using Random Forests for a species in decline. Austral Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12884

  9. Burwell, C. J., Theischinger, G., Leach, E. C., & Burwell-Rodriguez, A. I. (2020). Dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata) of the Eungella region, central coastal Queensland, Australia. Proceedings of The Royal Society of Queensland, 125, 10.
    http://www.royalsocietyqld.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Individual_Web_PDFs/PRSQ_Volume_125_5_Burwell_Odonata_Web.pdf

    Proceedings of The Royal Society of Queensland
    Abstract

    We collate records of species of dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata) from the broader Eungella region within the Clarke Range‚ central coastal Queensland‚ Australia‚ comprising the Eungella plateau‚ the upper Pioneer Valley as far east as Gargett‚ and the area around Eungella Dam on the western side of the Clarke Range. Records are based on specimens collected on Griffith University and Queensland Museum surveys of the region in 2013 and 2014‚ specimen records in museum collections‚ and observational records sourced using the Atlas of Living Australia and accompanied by identifiable photographs. A total of 58 species are recorded from the Eungella region: 37 dragonflies and 21 damselflies‚ representing 12 families. Four species appear to be endemic to the Clarke Range. Another six are southern species that occur as far north as Eungella and the broader Clarke Range but do not cross the Burdekin-Lynd Barrier. Two species are essentially confined to northern Queensland and occur south of the Burdekin-Lynd Barrier but only as far south as the Eungella region. The majority of the region’s species are widespread‚ occurring from northern to southern Queensland and often far beyond.
    Citation

    Burwell, C. J., Theischinger, G., Leach, E. C., & Burwell-Rodriguez, A. I. (2020). Dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata) of the Eungella region, central coastal Queensland, Australia. Proceedings of The Royal Society of Queensland, 125, 10.

  10. Campbell, H. A., Loewensteiner, D. A., Murphy, B. P., Pittard, S., & McMahon, C. R. (2020). Seasonal movements and site utilisation by Asian water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in tropical savannas and floodplains of northern Australia. Wildlife Research. https://doi.org/10.1071/WR20070

    Wildlife Research
    Abstract

    Abstract Context The Asian water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) is an introduced herbivore of the savannas and floodplains of northern Australia. Despite the significant environmental damage caused by water buffalo‚ important cultural and commercial stakeholders request this species is managed rather than eradicated. However‚ gaps in knowledge of buffalo ecology limit effective policy and planning. Aims To better understand how buffalo‚ at current population densities‚ respond to seasonally changing resources in the two key habitat types that they occupy in northern Australian – upland eucalypt savanna and seasonally inundated floodplain. Methods Satellite telemetry was used to record the location of a single female buffalo from each of 11 independent clans every hour over a 12-month period. Generalised linear mixed modelling was used to assess the extent to which buffalo movements‚ activity-space and site revisitation correlated with forage quality (inferred from the normalised difference vegetation index – NDVI) and localised buffalo density. Key results As the dry season progressed‚ forage quantity and quality within the activity-space of buffalo clans decreased. In response‚ buffalo inhabiting floodplain exhibited increased rates of movement and enlarged the size of their activity-space. This resulted in low repeated visitation of foraging areas in the late dry season and NDVI remained relatively high within these areas. In comparison‚ buffalo in upland savanna maintained similar rates of activity and occupied the same activity-space size throughout the year. This resulted in frequent revisitation of the same areas in the late dry season and NDVI reached as low as zero in these foraging areas. Clan size and localised buffalo density had no significant effect on measured movement parameters. Conclusions Buffalo exhibited a behavioural strategy in upland savanna that resulted in acute removal of green herbaceous vegetation within a few kilometres of the clan’s permanent water source. Buffalo inhabiting the floodplain used multiple wallows that reduced grazing impacts‚ but likely resulted in hoof-derived impacts over a broad area. Implications Current buffalo densities in Kakadu National Park appear to be well below carrying capacity but localised environmental degradation around permanent water sources remains severe in upland savanna.
    Citation

    Campbell, H. A., Loewensteiner, D. A., Murphy, B. P., Pittard, S., & McMahon, C. R. (2020). Seasonal movements and site utilisation by Asian water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in tropical savannas and floodplains of northern Australia. Wildlife Research. https://doi.org/10.1071/WR20070

  11. Caswell, B. A., Dissanayake, N. G., & Frid, C. L. J. (2020). Influence of climate-induced biogeographic range shifts on mudflat ecological functioning in the subtropics. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 106692. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2020.106692

    Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
    Abstract

    A growing volume of evidence shows that the broad-scale biogeographic redistribution of species is occurring in response to increasing global temperatures. The present study documents poleward movements of up to eight species of nominally ‘tropical’ macroinvertebrates (molluscs‚ polychaetes‚ crustaceans and foraminifera) from intertidal mudflats on the south east coast of Australia. The speed of movement was comparable with that for Australian marine fauna generally‚ but was particularly fast for worms and molluscs (∼70–300 km decade−1) and may be facilitated by the southward flowing East Australia Current. Further‚ two temperate taxa appear to have extended their ranges northwards. Changes in species biogeographic ranges raises questions surrounding the response of ecological processes within the altered and novel species combinations‚ including processes that underpin valuable ecosystem services. Using biological traits analysis to investigate how the observed species range changes might have impacted mudflat ecosystem functioning‚ and to predict the possible impacts of further poleward movements of tropical taxa. Our models suggest the changes to date‚ and those likely to occur in the near future‚ are within the envelope whereby ecological functioning is maintained by functional compensation and redundancy within the mudflat assemblage. However‚ in the most extreme scenario the replacement of temperate by tropical taxa resulted in major changes in ecological functioning with potential impacts on nutrient cycling and C-cycling‚ undermining the potential of these mudflats to continue to deliver critical ecosystem services. The widespread nature of biogeographic range shifts and the value of coastal systems should add further weight to calls for global action to mitigate global temperature change.
    Citation

    Caswell, B. A., Dissanayake, N. G., & Frid, C. L. J. (2020). Influence of climate-induced biogeographic range shifts on mudflat ecological functioning in the subtropics. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 106692. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2020.106692

  12. Catelotti, K., Bino, G., & Offord, C. A. (2020). Thermal germination niches of Persoonia species and projected spatiotemporal shifts under a changing climate. Diversity and Distributions. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13040

    Diversity and Distributions
    Abstract

    Aim Seasonal germination is critical in synchronizing seedling emergence with optimal conditions for survival but will be disrupted by climate change. Understanding how germination of threatened species with complex dormancy patterns will be affected by climate change is a priority for their management. By exploring the effects of temperature on germination for six Persoonia species ranging in rareness‚ this study aims to improve ex situ plant production and better understand the probable impacts of climate change on persistence of local populations. Location South-eastern Australia. Methods The role of temperature on seed dormancy was explored using generalized additive models to predict germination probabilities for six Persoonia species ranging in rarity. Embryos were exposed to 24-hr cycles of alternating 12-hr warmer/light and 12-hr cooler/dark combinations of temperatures between 8°C and 45°C. Optimal temperature conditions for germination were determined‚ and spatiotemporal changes in germination probability were predicted in response to expected temperatures under future climate change scenarios. Results Unique germination niches representing complex responses across diurnal regimes were identified for each species. Germination probability was predicted to decline in four species in response to warmer day or night temperatures and in two species in response to cooler day or night temperatures. Across bioregions‚ areas of likely germination largely aligned with species-specific temperature sensitivity‚ with suitable germination niche declining in four species‚ one staying roughly the same and one increasing in physical range under predicted climate warming. Main conclusions In response to increased temperatures associated with climate change‚ germination probability varied from current rates. These changes were quantified both spatially and temporally and highlight expected challenges for persistence of some populations‚ particularly range restricted and rare species. Current understanding of extinction threat must consider future conditions‚ and these results highlight the urgent need to protect populations of these six Persoonia species that are currently threatened by habitat destruction and encourage future population persistence through restoration efforts.
    Citation

    Catelotti, K., Bino, G., & Offord, C. A. (2020). Thermal germination niches of Persoonia species and projected spatiotemporal shifts under a changing climate. Diversity and Distributions. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13040

  13. Chari, L. D., Martin, G. D., Steenhuisen, S. L., Adams, L. D., & Clark, V. R. (2020). Biology of Invasive Plants 1. Pyracantha angustifolia (Franch.) C.K. Schneid. Invasive Plant Science and Management, 13(3), 120–142. https://doi.org/10.1017/inp.2020.24

    Invasive Plant Science and Management
    abstract
    Citation

    Chari, L. D., Martin, G. D., Steenhuisen, S. L., Adams, L. D., & Clark, V. R. (2020). Biology of Invasive Plants 1. Pyracantha angustifolia (Franch.) C.K. Schneid. Invasive Plant Science and Management, 13(3), 120–142. https://doi.org/10.1017/inp.2020.24

  14. Coman, A., Potter, S., Moritz, C., Campbell, C. D., & Joseph, L. (2020). Biotic and abiotic drivers of evolution in some Australian thornbills (Passeriformes: Acanthiza) in allopatry, sympatry, and parapatry including a case of character displacement. Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/jzs.12355

    Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research
    Abstract

    Disentangling historical‚ ecological‚ and abiotic drivers of diversity among closely related species can benefit from morphological diversity being placed in a phylogenetic context. It can also be aided when the species are variously in allopatry‚ parapatry‚ and sympatry. We studied a clade of Australian thornbills (Passeriformes: Acanthizidae: Acanthiza) comprising the Brown Thornbill (A. pusilla)‚ Inland Thornbill (A. apicalis)‚ Mountain Thornbill (A. katherina)‚ and Tasmanian Thornbill (A. ewingii) whose distributions and ecology facilitate this approach. We first clarified phylogenetic relationships among them and then detected a low level of gene flow in parapatry between a non-sister pair (Brown‚ Inland). Further work could partition relative roles of past and current hybridization. We identify likely cases of ecologically driven divergent selection and one of convergent evolution. Divergent selection was likely key to divergence of Inland Thornbills from the Brown–Mountain sister pair. In contrast‚ convergence in plumage between the non-sister Brown and Inland Thornbills has been driven by their mesic forest habitats on opposite sides of the Australian continent. Finally‚ morphological distinctiveness of Tasmanian populations of Brown Thornbills could reflect character displacement in sympatry with the ecologically similar Tasmanian Thornbills. Collectively‚ the combined morphological‚ genetic‚ and ecological evidence points to diverse evolutionary processes operating across this closely related group of birds.
    Citation

    Coman, A., Potter, S., Moritz, C., Campbell, C. D., & Joseph, L. (2020). Biotic and abiotic drivers of evolution in some Australian thornbills (Passeriformes: Acanthiza) in allopatry, sympatry, and parapatry including a case of character displacement. Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/jzs.12355

  15. Cooke, B. D. (2020). Swamp wallaby (Wallabia bicolor) distribution has dramatically increased following sustained biological control of rabbits. Australian Mammalogy. https://doi.org/10.1071/AM19037

    Australian Mammalogy
    Abstract

    Swamp wallabies have dramatically extended their distribution through western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia over the last 40 years. Newspaper reports from 1875 onwards show that on European settlement‚ wallaby populations were confined to eastern Victoria‚ including the ranges around Melbourne‚ the Otway Ranges and Portland District of south-western Victoria‚ and a tiny part of south-eastern South Australia. Populations contracted further with intense hunting for the fur trade until the 1930s. In the late 1970s‚ however‚ wallabies began spreading into drier habitats than those initially recorded. Possible causes underlying this change in distribution are discussed; some seem unlikely but‚ because wallabies began spreading soon after the introduction of European rabbit fleas as vectors of myxomatosis‚ the cumulative effects of releases of biological agents to control rabbits appear important. A caution is given on assuming that thick vegetation in high-rainfall areas provides the only habitat suitable for swamp wallabies‚ but‚ most importantly‚ the study shows how native mammals may benefit if rabbit abundance is reduced.
    Citation

    Cooke, B. D. (2020). Swamp wallaby (Wallabia bicolor) distribution has dramatically increased following sustained biological control of rabbits. Australian Mammalogy. https://doi.org/10.1071/AM19037

  16. Cornejo-Páramo, P., Lira-Noriega, A., Ramírez-Suástegui, C., Méndez-de-la-Cruz, F. R., Székely, T., Urrutia, A. O., & Cortez, D. (2020). Sex determination systems in reptiles are related to ambient temperature but not to the level of climatic fluctuation. BMC Evolutionary Biology, 20(1), 103. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12862-020-01671-y

    BMC Evolutionary Biology
    Abstract

    Vertebrates exhibit diverse sex determination systems and reptiles stand out by having highly variable sex determinations that include temperature-dependent and genotypic sex determination (TSD and GSD‚ respectively). Theory predicts that populations living in either highly variable or cold climatic conditions should evolve genotypic sex determination to buffer the populations from extreme sex ratios‚ yet these fundamental predictions have not been tested across a wide range of taxa.
    Citation

    Cornejo-Páramo, P., Lira-Noriega, A., Ramírez-Suástegui, C., Méndez-de-la-Cruz, F. R., Székely, T., Urrutia, A. O., & Cortez, D. (2020). Sex determination systems in reptiles are related to ambient temperature but not to the level of climatic fluctuation. BMC Evolutionary Biology, 20(1), 103. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12862-020-01671-y

  17. Cross, A. T., Krueger, T. A., Gonella, P. M., Robinson, A. S., & Fleischmann, A. S. (2020). Conservation of carnivorous plants in the age of extinction. Global Ecology and Conservation, e01272. c81e08a7-2f2e-3374-802e-f90f6d4c9d7c. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01272

    Global Ecology and Conservation
    Abstract

    Carnivorous plants (CPs)—those possessing specific strategies to attract‚ capture and kill animal prey and obtain nutrition through the absorption of their biomass—are harbingers of anthropogenic degradation and destruction of ecosystems. CPs exhibit highly specialised and often very sensitive ecologies‚ being generally restricted to nutrient-impoverished habitats where carnivory offers a competitive advantage. As such‚ they are often the first species to disappear following habitat degradation‚ land use change‚ and alteration to natural ecological processes‚ and are at significant risk from processes such as eutrophication and weed invasion‚ and even poorly-understood impacts such as airborne nitrogen inputs. Many of the world’s 860 species of CPs are found in wetland habitats‚ which represent some of the most cleared and heavily degraded ecosystems on Earth. Global diversity hotspots for CPs are likewise located in some of the most heavily cleared and disturbed areas of the planet—southwestern Western Australia‚ Southeast Asia‚ Mediterranean Europe‚ central eastern Brazil‚ and the southeastern United States—placing their conservation at odds with human developmental interests. Many carnivorous plant species exhibit extreme range-restriction and are wholly localised to specific geological formations‚ microhabitats or elevations‚ with nowhere to move to in the face of environmental change such as a warming‚ drying climate. We provide the first systematic examination of the conservation status and threats to all CPs globally‚ compiling full or partial assessments of conservation status category for 860 species from 18 genera‚ and provide ten recommendations towards better conservation and management of this iconic group. A total of 69 species were assessed as Critically Endangered (8% of all species)‚ 47 as Endangered (6%)‚ 104 as Vulnerable (12%)‚ and 23 as Near Threatened (3%). Slightly over 60% of CPs (521 species) were assessed as Least Concern. At least 89 species are known from only a single location based on current knowledge. Data on threatening processes were available for 790 species‚ with the most common threatening processes including Agriculture and Aquaculture (impacting 170 species)‚ Natural Systems Modifications (168 species)‚ Climate Change and Severe Weather (158 species)‚ Energy Production and Mining (127 species)‚ Human Intrusions and Disturbance (126 species)‚ and Biological Resource Use (98 species). Almost a quarter of all species were impacted upon by three or more threatening processes. The most significant threats placing species at imminent risk of extinction include the continuing clearing of natural habitat for urban and agricultural development and the illegal collection of individuals from the wild for horticultural trade. The complex and specialised ecological requirements of CPs‚ together with the multifaceted threats they face‚ make conservation difficult and repatriation even to restored areas challenging. As the number of vulnerable‚ endangered and extinct carnivorous plant species continues to grow‚ despite significant conservation efforts in many regions and greater awareness of their ecological requirements‚ it is clear that a paradigm shift is required in our approach to the preservation of this unique group of plants in order to achieve long-term conservation successes.
    Citation

    Cross, A. T., Krueger, T. A., Gonella, P. M., Robinson, A. S., & Fleischmann, A. S. (2020). Conservation of carnivorous plants in the age of extinction. Global Ecology and Conservation, e01272. c81e08a7-2f2e-3374-802e-f90f6d4c9d7c. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01272

  18. Cutajar, T. P., & Rowley, J. L. (2020). Surveying frogs from the bellies of their parasites: Invertebrate-derived DNA as a novel survey method for frogs. Global Ecology and Conservation, e00978. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e00978

    Global Ecology and Conservation
    Abstract

    Biodiversity conservation is reliant on thorough species occurrence data. However‚ the collection of such data is often difficult for species with poor detectability. Recently‚ invertebrate-derived DNA (iDNA) has emerged as a potentially powerful survey method to increase the detectability of terrestrial vertebrates. Parasitic invertebrates are effective samplers of some vertebrate diversity and can be used to detect and identify their host species by sequencing the DNA contained in their meals. Among taxa that can be very difficult to detect using traditional survey methods are many frog species‚ which are often of a high conservation priority. However‚ the potential for frog-specific iDNA surveys has not been explored; most iDNA surveys have targeted mammals. We carried out traditional audio-visual and iDNA frog surveys in eastern Australia to determine whether frog-biting midges (Corethrella and Sycorax spp.) can be used as an effective survey method for frogs. The frog species detected through each method differed. Five species were detected only during traditional surveys‚ three by both methods‚ and one exclusively via iDNA. We demonstrate for the first time that iDNA can be used in targeted surveys of frog diversity and that it may increase the detectability of some species compared to traditional surveys. iDNA holds particular promise in the search for rare species‚ including those that are missing‚ feared extinct‚ and may also be useful in biosecurity‚ detecting invasive species.
    Citation

    Cutajar, T. P., & Rowley, J. L. (2020). Surveying frogs from the bellies of their parasites: Invertebrate-derived DNA as a novel survey method for frogs. Global Ecology and Conservation, e00978. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e00978

  19. Dinnage, R., Skeels, A., & Cardillo, M. (2020). Spatiophylogenetic modelling of extinction risk reveals evolutionary distinctiveness and brief flowering period as threats in a hotspot plant genus. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287(1926), 20192817. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.2817

    Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
    Abstract

    Comparative models used to predict species threat status can help identify the diagnostic features of species at risk. Such models often combine variables measured at the species level with spatial variables‚ causing multiple statistical challenges‚ including phylogenetic and spatial non-independence. We present a novel Bayesian approach for modelling threat status that simultaneously deals with both forms of non-independence and estimates their relative contribution‚ and we apply the approach to modelling threat status in the Australian plant genus Hakea. We find that after phylogenetic and spatial effects are accounted for‚ species with greater evolutionary distinctiveness and a shorter annual flowering period are more likely to be threatened. The model allows us to combine information on evolutionary history‚ species biology and spatial data‚ calculate latent extinction risk (potential for non-threatened species to become threatened)‚ estimate the most important drivers of risk for individual species and map spatial patterns in the effects of different predictors on extinction risk. This could be of value for proactive conservation decision-making based on the early identification of species and regions of potential conservation concern.
    Citation

    Dinnage, R., Skeels, A., & Cardillo, M. (2020). Spatiophylogenetic modelling of extinction risk reveals evolutionary distinctiveness and brief flowering period as threats in a hotspot plant genus. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 287(1926), 20192817. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.2817

  20. Finch, J. T. D., & Cook, J. M. (2020). Flies on vacation: evidence for the migration of Australian Syrphidae (Diptera). Ecological Entomology. https://doi.org/10.1111/een.12856

    Ecological Entomology
    Abstract

    1. Hover flies (Syrphidae: Diptera) are a cosmopolitan group of insects that provide important ecosystem services including pollination and pest control. The seasonal migration of hover flies is probably best known in Europe‚ but it remains unstudied in many other parts of the world. 2. Australia is believed to be home to around 160 hover fly species‚ some of which are common in urban and agricultural environments. The current evidence for hover fly migration in Australia is scarce and anecdotal‚ yet migration may be critical to the success of pollination and the biological control of aphids. 3. In this study‚ species occurrence records from an online biodiversity database (Atlas of Living Australia) were used to look for evidence of migratory behaviours in all Australian hover flies with more than 200 occurrence records. 4. Four of the 10 species displayed seasonal changes in their distribution consistent with migration‚ including Australia’s two most abundant species: Melangyna viridiceps and Simosyrphus grandicornis. This work is an important first step in understanding the prevalence of migration in Australian hover flies. However‚ confirmation of our findings requires additional evidence to rule out other plausible explanations for the observed patterns. 5. Based on changes in summer and winter latitudinal distribution‚ it is estimated that some Australian hover flies may make annual migrations of 400–1800 km. 6. This work suggests that the management of beneficial insects requires consideration of factors at both local and continental scales‚ as landscape use changes may have an impact on ecosystem services delivered hundreds of kilometres away.
    Citation

    Finch, J. T. D., & Cook, J. M. (2020). Flies on vacation: evidence for the migration of Australian Syrphidae (Diptera). Ecological Entomology. https://doi.org/10.1111/een.12856

  21. Dorey, J. B., Fagan-Jeffries, E. P., Stevens, M. I., & Schwarz, M. P. (2020). Morphometric comparisons and novel observations of diurnal and low-light-foraging bees. Journal of Hymenoptera Research, 79, 117–144. https://doi.org/10.3897/jhr.79.57308

    Journal of Hymenoptera Research
    Abstract

    Low-light adapted bees are substantially understudied components of the bee fauna‚ particularly in Australia. Whilst several species in Australia are thought to be adapted to low-light conditions‚ explicit records of these taxa actually foraging at twilight or night are absent from the scientific literature. We present the first observations of Australian bees foraging in low-light conditions as well as the first evidence of low-light foraging behaviour in the colletid bee subfamily‚ Hylaeinae. Using morphometrics of Australian and more broadly-distributed diurnal‚ facultative low-light and obligate low-light adapted bees‚ we explore the use of morphological traits to objectively assess possible low-light behaviour and corroborate low-light collection events. Our results show that it is possible to morphologically distinguish between diurnal and low-light adapted bees‚ and that there is a spectrum of characters that are associated with low light conditions. We use GIS to show that low-light adapted species occur mostly in the tropics‚ but that some species have subtropical‚ arid and even temperate distributions. As low-light foraging behaviour in bees is infrequently reported‚ it appears that low-light foraging behaviour is more common than currently appreciated‚ highlighting the need for extended bee-sampling periods and more consistent collection data to increase the understanding of this little-understood aspect of bee behaviour.
    Citation

    Dorey, J. B., Fagan-Jeffries, E. P., Stevens, M. I., & Schwarz, M. P. (2020). Morphometric comparisons and novel observations of diurnal and low-light-foraging bees. Journal of Hymenoptera Research, 79, 117–144. https://doi.org/10.3897/jhr.79.57308

  22. García‐Navas, V., Kear, B. P., & Westerman, M. (2020). The geography of speciation in dasyurid marsupials. Journal of Biogeography. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13852

    Journal of Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim To determine the effects of competition and divergence time on morphological dissimilarity and geographical range overlap between dasyurid species at both regional and local scales. Our hypothesis is that speciation in this group has been largely allopatric at regional scale‚ but involved morphological divergence at local scale through sympatric character displacement. Location Australia‚ New Guinea and surrounding islands. Taxon Dasyurid (Dasyuridae) marsupials‚ 67 species. Methods Geographical range overlap was quantified using polygons representing the outer limits of species distributions. Local-scale range overlap was quantified as the degree of co-occurrence of two taxa across a set of ecological survey plots representing 83 sampled communities. Phylogenies were generated using a novel DNA dataset‚ with divergence times estimated via total-evidence dating incorporating fossils. Morphological divergence was determined using body mass and lower molar row length as proxy traits for reconstructing niche exploitation. Results Sister species pairs were found to be sympatric in 52% (11/21) of cases. Range overlap tended to increase with node age‚ which supports the hypothesis that mammalian speciation is routinely allopatric. We detected no evidence of character displacement with increasing range overlap between sister species pairs. However‚ a negative relationship was observed between morphological divergence in body mass and range overlap across all sampled taxa‚ suggesting that selection in sympatry is convergent‚ while divergent selection occurs in allopatry. Local-scale co-occurrences revealed no trace of species aversion‚ indicating that competition has not impacted on the spatial distribution of dasyurids. Main conclusions Despite moderate levels of sympatry through time‚ our results evince low rates of spatial co-occurrence between dasyurid species. Although this may be indicative competitive exclusion‚ the lack of character displacement suggests that biotic interactions have likely not acted as a dominant driver of phenotypic evolution in this radiation. We alternatively posit that abiotic factors including aridity and geographical connectivity have more feasibly propagated character convergence‚ and led to both niche conservatism and speciation in this ubiquitous australidelphian clade.
    Citation

    García‐Navas, V., Kear, B. P., & Westerman, M. (2020). The geography of speciation in dasyurid marsupials. Journal of Biogeography. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13852

  23. Higgins, S. I., Larcombe, M. J., Beeton, N. J., Conradi, T., & Nottebrock, H. (2020). Predictive ability of a process-based versus a correlative species distribution model. Ecology and Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6712

    Ecology and Evolution
    Abstract

    Species distribution modeling is a widely used tool in many branches of ecology and evolution. Evaluations of the transferability of species distribution models—their ability to predict the distribution of species in independent data domains—are‚ however‚ rare. In this study‚ we contrast the transferability of a process-based and a correlative species distribution model. Our case study uses 664 Australian eucalypt and acacia species. We estimate models for these species using data from their native Australia and then assess whether these models can predict the adventive range of these species. We find that the correlative model—MaxEnt—has a superior ability to describe the data in the training data domain (Australia) and that the process-based model—TTR-SDM—has a superior ability to predict the distribution of the study species outside of Australia. The implication of this analysis‚ that process-based models may be more appropriate than correlative models when making projections outside of the domain of the training data‚ needs to be tested in other case studies.
    Citation

    Higgins, S. I., Larcombe, M. J., Beeton, N. J., Conradi, T., & Nottebrock, H. (2020). Predictive ability of a process-based versus a correlative species distribution model. Ecology and Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6712

  24. Hirst, M. J., Griffin, P. C., Wu, L. H., & Hoffmann, A. A. (2020). Testing the environmental warming responses of Brachyscome daisy species using a common garden approach. Austral Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12885

    Austral Ecology
    Abstract

    As temperatures increase in a warming world‚ there will be different responses among related plant species‚ with some species able to increase growth rate under warmer conditions and others less likely. Here‚ we identify survival and growth parameters in a group of 19 related Australian daisies from the genera Brachyscome and Pembertonia when exposed to higher soil temperature‚ focusing particularly on species from the alpine environment. We used a common garden approach to measure growth and survival under warming. We tested for the effects of evolutionary history by investigating phylogeny and testing for a phylogenetic signal‚ and for the effects of ecological history by considering climatic variables associated with species distributions in their native range. Evolutionary history did not have a detectable effect on warming responses. While there was a moderate signal for plant growth in the absence of warming‚ there was no signal for growth changes in response to warming‚ despite variability among species to warming that ranged from positive to negative growth responses. There was no strong effect of climate context‚ as species that showed a positive response to warming did not necessarily originate from hotter environments. In fact‚ several species from hot environments grew relatively poorly when exposed to higher soil temperature. However‚ species endemic to alpine areas were less likely to benefit from warming than widespread species. We found a strong phylogenetic signal for climate history‚ in that closely related species tend to occur in areas with similar annual variability in precipitation. Species differences in response to soil warming were variable and difficult to link to climate conditions except for the poor response of alpine endemics. There was no significant association between survival and warming responses of species. However‚ as some species showed weak growth responses‚ this may reduce their fitness into the future.
    Citation

    Hirst, M. J., Griffin, P. C., Wu, L. H., & Hoffmann, A. A. (2020). Testing the environmental warming responses of Brachyscome daisy species using a common garden approach. Austral Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12885

  25. Ibalim, S., Groom, S. V. C., Dorey, J. B., Velasco-Castrillon, A., Schwarz, M. P., & Stevens, M. I. (2020). Origin and dispersal of Homalictus (Apoidea: Halictidae) across Australia, Papua New Guinea and Pacific. Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/03721426.2020.1740957

    Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia
    Abstract

    The halictine bee genus Homalictus (Apoidea: Halictidae) is distributed broadly across south east Asia‚ Indonesia‚ Australia and the archipelagos of the Pacific. The group is well represented in the bee faunas of Australia and Papua New Guinea‚ but Homalictus is particularly important in the Pacific where it plays a keystone pollination role as the only endemic bee group in many islands. Understanding the origin and radiation of this genus is therefore important for understanding plant-bee co-evolution‚ not only in the Pacific‚ but the greater Oceania region. Previous studies have suggested that Homalictus has an Australian origin‚ and then dispersed northwards‚ but this is yet to be phylogenetically examined. Here we combine DNA sequences from the mitochondrial COI gene from Homalictus species from Papua New Guinea‚ the Pacific and Australia to infer the geographical and climatic origins of this group and subsequent dispersal events. Our results indicate a tropical origin for Homalictus in Australia‚ followed by multiple dispersals into the Pacific and subtropical‚ temperate and arid Australia. A tropical origin for Homalictus not only indicates the likely dispersal corridors for the ancestor of the group but has important implications for understanding social evolution in halictine bees.
    Citation

    Ibalim, S., Groom, S. V. C., Dorey, J. B., Velasco-Castrillon, A., Schwarz, M. P., & Stevens, M. I. (2020). Origin and dispersal of Homalictus (Apoidea: Halictidae) across Australia, Papua New Guinea and Pacific. Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/03721426.2020.1740957

  26. Jordan, R., Prober, S. M., Hoffmann, A. A., & Dillon, S. K. (2020). Combined Analyses of Phenotype, Genotype and Climate Implicate Local Adaptation as a Driver of Diversity in Eucalyptus microcarpa (Grey Box). Forests, 11(5), 495. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11050495

    Forests
    Forests
    Abstract

    Trees are a keystone species in many ecosystems and a critical component of ecological restoration. Understanding their capacity to respond to climate change is essential for conserving biodiversity and determining appropriate restoration seed sources. Patterns of local adaptation to climate between populations within a species can inform such conservation decisions and are often investigated from either a quantitative trait or molecular genetic basis. Here‚ we present findings from a combined analysis of phenotype (quantitative genetic analysis)‚ genotype (single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) trait associations)‚ and climate associations. We draw on the strength of this combined approach to investigate pre-existing climate adaptation and its genetic basis in Eucalyptus microcarpa (Grey box)‚ an important tree for ecological restoration in south-eastern Australia. Phenotypic data from a 26-year-old provenance trial demonstrated significant genetic variation in growth and leaf traits at both the family and provenance levels. Growth traits were only associated with temperature‚ whilst leaf traits were associated with temperature‚ precipitation and aridity. Genotyping of 40 putatively adaptive SNPs from previous genome-wide analyses identified 9 SNPs associated with these traits. Drawing on previous SNP–climate association results‚ several associations were identified between all three comparisons of phenotype‚ genotype and climate. By combining phenotypic with genomic analyses‚ these results corroborate genomic findings and enhance understanding of climate adaptation in E. microcarpa. We discuss the implication of these results for conservation management and restoration under climate change.
    Citation

    Jordan, R., Prober, S. M., Hoffmann, A. A., & Dillon, S. K. (2020). Combined Analyses of Phenotype, Genotype and Climate Implicate Local Adaptation as a Driver of Diversity in Eucalyptus microcarpa (Grey Box). Forests, 11(5), 495. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11050495

  27. Le, T. S., & Morgenroth, J. (2020). Strategic expansion of existing forest monitoring plots: a case study using a stratified GIS-based modelling approach. New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science, 50. https://doi.org/10.33494/nzjfs502020x41x

    New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science
    Abstract

    Background: Understanding the relationship between sites and the plant species they support is essential for effective vegetation management. Site-species matching requires knowledge of the growth response of a given species to the full range of environmental conditions in potential planting sites. This can be achieved by repeatedly measuring species growth at a comprehensive network of sample plots that cover a range of environmental conditions‚ including topography‚ climate‚ and soil factors. The New Zealand Dryland Forests Initiative has established permanent sample plots (PSPs) of a plantation species‚ Eucalyptus bosistoana F.Muell.‚ across New Zealand. However‚ these PSPs do not cover the entire range of environmental conditions available for the species and hence there is a need to expand the network of sites. The aim of this study was to determine optimal locations for new PSPs to provide more unique information to support site-species matching studies for Eucalyptus bosistoana in New Zealand.
    Methods: A geographic information system (GIS) and stratified random sampling method were used to generate a model to identify optimal locations for E. bosistoana PSP establishment. The variables used in this study included topography‚ climate‚ and soil data. Redundancy between the initial set of potential explanatory variables was reduced by a multi-collinearity analysis. The potential habitat for the species was restricted to land with environmental conditions that could support E. bosistoana. All environmental variables were stratified and an initial priority index for each stratum in each variable was calculated. Then a weighted-overlay analysis was conducted to create the final priority index‚ which was mapped to identify high-priority areas for targeted PSP expansion.
    Results: The existing PSP network for E. bosistoana generally covers the environmental conditions in low-elevation New Zealand dry lands‚ which are located alongside the east coast of the South Island‚ and the southern part of the North Island. The model identified high priority areas for PSP expansion‚ including several large regions in the North Island‚ especially in Rangitikei and Taupo Districts.
    Conclusions: The model successfully allowed identification of areas for a strategic expansion of permanent sample plots for E. bosistoana. Newly identified areas expand upon the topographic‚ climatic‚ and soil conditions represented by the existing PSP network. The new area for PSP expansion has potential to provide valuable information for further site-species matching studies. The methodology in this paper has potential to be used for other plot networks of a different species‚ or even natural forests.
    Citation

    Le, T. S., & Morgenroth, J. (2020). Strategic expansion of existing forest monitoring plots: a case study using a stratified GIS-based modelling approach. New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science, 50. https://doi.org/10.33494/nzjfs502020x41x

  28. Matley, K. A., Sniderman, J. M. K., Drinnan, A. N., & Hellstrom, J. C. (2020). Late-Holocene environmental change on the Nullarbor Plain, southwest Australia, based on speleothem pollen records. Holocene. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683619895589

    Holocene
    Holocene
    Abstract

    Fossil pollen from two stalagmites is examined to reconstruct a c. 2400-year history of vegetation change on the Nullarbor Plain. Environmental changes are reflected by variation in chenopod species abundance‚ and by a peak in woody taxa between 1000 and 800 years ago which is interpreted as evidence of increased moisture conditions associated with a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. While no strong palynological signal is observed at the time of European colonization of Australia‚ a significant change occurs in the past 40 years‚ which is interpreted as a vegetation response to a recorded fire event. As speleothems (secondary cave carbonates including stalagmites‚ stalactites and flowstones) rarely contain enough fossil pollen for analysis‚ the taphonomic biases of speleothem archives remain poorly understood. This study‚ as well as being a high-resolution record of environmental change‚ presents an opportunity to examine these taphonomic filters. The record is shown to be sensitive to episodic deposition of presumably insect-borne pollen‚ but overall appears to provide a faithful representation of local and regional vegetation change. There is a need for greater research into taphonomic processes‚ if speleothem palynology is to be developed as a viable alternative to lacustrine sediments in the investigation of past environmental change.
    Citation

    Matley, K. A., Sniderman, J. M. K., Drinnan, A. N., & Hellstrom, J. C. (2020). Late-Holocene environmental change on the Nullarbor Plain, southwest Australia, based on speleothem pollen records. Holocene. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683619895589

  29. Miller, A. D., Nitschke, C., Weeks, A. R., Weatherly, W. L., Heyes, S. D., Sinclair, S. J., Holland, O. J., Stevenson, A., Broadhurst, L., Hoebee, S. E., Sherman, C. D. H., & Morgan, J. W. (2020). Genetic data and climate niche suitability models highlight the vulnerability of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia. Evolutionary Applications, 13(8), 2014–2029. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12958

    Evolutionary Applications
    Abstract

    Habitat fragmentation imperils the persistence of many functionally important species‚ with climate change a new threat to local persistence due to climate niche mismatching. Predicting the evolutionary trajectory of species essential to ecosystem function under future climates is challenging but necessary for prioritizing conservation investments. We use a combination of population genetics and niche suitability models to assess the trajectory of a functionally important‚ but highly fragmented‚ plant species from south-eastern Australia (Banksia marginata‚ Proteaceae). We demonstrate significant genetic structuring among‚ and high level of relatedness within‚ fragmented remnant populations‚ highlighting imminent risks of inbreeding. Population simulations‚ controlling for effective population size (Ne)‚ suggest that many remnant populations will suffer rapid declines in genetic diversity due to drift in the absence of intervention. Simulations were used to demonstrate how inbreeding and drift processes might be suppressed by assisted migration and population mixing approaches that enhance the size and connectivity of remnant populations. These analyses were complemented by niche suitability models that predicted substantial reductions of suitable habitat by 2080; 30% of the current distribution of the species climate niche overlaps with the projected distribution of the species climate niche in the geographic region by the 2080s. Our study highlights the importance of conserving remnant populations and establishing new populations in areas likely to support B. marginata in the future‚ and adopting seed sourcing strategies that can help populations overcome the risks of inbreeding and maladaptation. We also argue that ecological replacement of B. marginata using climatically suited plant species might be needed in the future to maintain ecosystem processes where B. marginata cannot persist. We recommend the need for progressive revegetation policies and practices to prevent further deterioration of species such as B. marginata and the ecosystems they support.
    Citation

    Miller, A. D., Nitschke, C., Weeks, A. R., Weatherly, W. L., Heyes, S. D., Sinclair, S. J., Holland, O. J., Stevenson, A., Broadhurst, L., Hoebee, S. E., Sherman, C. D. H., & Morgan, J. W. (2020). Genetic data and climate niche suitability models highlight the vulnerability of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia. Evolutionary Applications, 13(8), 2014–2029. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12958

  30. Moles, A. T., Laffan, S. W., Keighery, M., Dalrymple, R. L., Tindall, M. L., & Chen, S. C. (2020). A hairy situation: Plant species in warm, sunny places are more likely to have pubescent leaves. Journal of Biogeography. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13870

    Journal of Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim Leaf pubescence has several important roles‚ including regulating heat balance‚ reducing damage from UV radiation‚ minimizing water loss and reducing herbivory. Each of these functions could affect a plant’s ability to tolerate the biotic and abiotic stresses encountered in different parts of the world. However‚ we know remarkably little about large scale biogeographic patterns in leaf pubescence. Our aims were: (a) to determine whether a higher proportion of species have pubescence at sites where it is hot‚ dry and solar radiation is high‚ and (b) to quantify the latitudinal gradient in pubescence. Location Australia. Taxon Vascular land plants. Methods We compiled data on the presence/absence of pubescence on mature photosynthetic organs for 4‚183 species‚ spanning 107 families. We combined these data with over 1.9 million species occurrence records from the Atlas of Living Australia to calculate the proportion of species with pubescence in 3‚261 grid cells spanning the Australian continent. Results The proportion of pubescent species was most closely related to solar radiation (R2 = 0.33)‚ followed by maximum temperature in the warmest month (R2 = 0.30). Mean annual precipitation was very weakly related to pubescence (R2 = 0.01). We found a significant negative relationship between latitude and pubescence (R2 = 0.19)‚ with the average percentage of species with pubescence dropping from 46% at 10° S to 35% at 44° S. This cross-species relationship remained significant after accounting for phylogenetic relationships between species. We found that a quadratic model explained more variation in pubescence across latitudes than did a linear model. The quadratic model shows a peak in the proportion of pubescent species at 19° S (within the tropics). Main conclusions Our findings are consistent with the idea that leaf pubescence may have a protective function in areas with high solar radiation and high temperatures. Our data are also consistent with the idea that species towards the tropics should be better defended than are species at higher latitudes.
    Citation

    Moles, A. T., Laffan, S. W., Keighery, M., Dalrymple, R. L., Tindall, M. L., & Chen, S. C. (2020). A hairy situation: Plant species in warm, sunny places are more likely to have pubescent leaves. Journal of Biogeography. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13870

  31. Morris, S. D., Johnson, C. N., & Brook, B. W. (2020). Roughing it: terrain is crucial in identifying novel translocation sites for the vulnerable brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata). Royal Society Open Science, 7(12), 201603. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201603

    Royal Society Open Science
    Abstract

    Translocations—the movement of species from one place to another—are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires. The recent Australian mega-fires burnt almost 40% of the habitat of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata)‚ a threatened species whose distribution is already restricted‚ primarily due to predation by invasive species. This chronic threat of over-predation‚ coupled with the possible extinction of the genetically distinct southern population (approx. 40 individuals in the wild)‚ makes this species a candidate for a conservation translocation. Here‚ we use species distribution models to identify translocation sites for the brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Our models exhibited high predictive accuracy‚ and show that terrain roughness‚ a surrogate for predator refugia‚ is the most important variable. Tasmania‚ which currently has no rock-wallabies‚ showed high suitability and is fox-free‚ making it a promising candidate site. We outline our argument for the trial translocation of rock-wallaby to Maria Island‚ located off Tasmania’s eastern coast. This research offers a transparent assessment of the translocation potential of a threatened species‚ which can be adapted to other taxa and systems.
    Citation

    Morris, S. D., Johnson, C. N., & Brook, B. W. (2020). Roughing it: terrain is crucial in identifying novel translocation sites for the vulnerable brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata). Royal Society Open Science, 7(12), 201603. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201603

  32. Noble, M. M., Harasti, D., Fulton, C. J., & Doran, B. (2020). Identifying spatial conservation priorities using Traditional and Local Ecological Knowledge of iconic marine species and ecosystem threats. Biological Conservation, 249, 108709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108709

    Biological Conservation
    Abstract

    Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) can be an effective spatial approach to conservation‚ especially when they involve genuine consultation that considers the diversity of stakeholders. Participatory mapping and semi-structured interviews were conducted with 52 stakeholders and 22 managers and scientists to identify ecological priorities and concerns across a large temperate MPA in Port Stephens-Great Lakes Marine Park‚ Australia. There were 19 iconic species of fish‚ dolphins‚ whales‚ and sea turtles that were the focus of ecological priorities and stakeholder interactions with the marine environment. Effectiveness of the current MPA management plan for addressing stakeholder priority and concerns‚ was assessed using GIS spatial modelling that created fuzzy-set species distribution models (SDMs) based on Traditional and Local Ecological Knowledge as well as scientific and citizen-science survey data. These spatial models for the iconic species across the MPA were then overlaid with ecological concerns of the stakeholders to create a spatial understanding of local threats‚ and priority areas for targeted management. Poor water quality from terrestrial primary sources was the main concern of stakeholders‚ more so than in-water threats such as poor fishing practices or impacts to iconic species. While local managers and scientists were relatively reluctant to answer interview questions‚ there was a general misalignment in approaches to iconic species management‚ especially for mobile and migratory species‚ and misunderstanding of stakeholder perceptions of threats. Participatory mapping of social-ecological values provides a method for stakeholders and decision-makers to better understand‚ discuss‚ and adapt marine spatial management approaches that support a diversity of conservation and management priorities.
    Citation

    Noble, M. M., Harasti, D., Fulton, C. J., & Doran, B. (2020). Identifying spatial conservation priorities using Traditional and Local Ecological Knowledge of iconic marine species and ecosystem threats. Biological Conservation, 249, 108709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108709

  33. Nimbs, M. J., Hutton, I., Davis, T. R., Larkin, M. F., & Smith, S. D. A. (2020). The heterobranch sea slugs of Lord Howe Island, NSW, Australia (Mollusca: Gastropoda). Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria, 132(1), 12–41. https://doi.org/10.1071/rs20002

    Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria
    Abstract

    The distribution of heterobranch sea slugs is generally poorly documented at a regional scale. Thus‚ it is currently difficult to quantify biodiversity‚ identify endemic and invasive species‚ and track range shifts at scales relevant to conservation management. For Lord Howe Island‚ which lies \textasciitilde600 km east of the New South Wales (NSW) mid-north coast‚ data from a range of taxa indicate high biodiversity and endemism‚ but this has not been examined for heterobranch sea slugs. To address this deficit‚ we collated occurrence data on sea slugs from both private and public sources‚ including museum records‚ scientific literature‚ field guides and citizen science activities. A total of 186 nominal (formally described) species in 82 genera and 31 families were identified from intertidal and subtidal habitats. Of these‚ two species are endemic to Lord Howe Island‚ two have not been recorded elsewhere in Australia‚ and 28 have not been recorded on the mainland coast of NSW. These results support studies of other taxa suggesting that the relative isolation of the island has facilitated the development of diverse and unique assemblages. However‚ this isolation is moderated by larval transport from surrounding regions‚ resulting in considerable overlap of the species pool with the mainland coast of NSW and tropical areas to the north.
    Citation

    Nimbs, M. J., Hutton, I., Davis, T. R., Larkin, M. F., & Smith, S. D. A. (2020). The heterobranch sea slugs of Lord Howe Island, NSW, Australia (Mollusca: Gastropoda). Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria, 132(1), 12–41. https://doi.org/10.1071/rs20002

  34. Orr, M. C., Hughes, A. C., Chesters, D., Pickering, J., Zhu, C. D., & Ascher, J. S. (2020). Global Patterns and Drivers of Bee Distribution. Current Biology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2020.10.053

    Current Biology
    Abstract

    Insects are the focus of many recent studies suggesting population declines‚ but even invaluable pollination service providers such as bees lack a modern distributional synthesis. Here‚ we combine a uniquely comprehensive checklist of bee species distributions and >5‚800‚000 public bee occurrence records to describe global patterns of bee biodiversity. Publicly accessible records are sparse‚ especially from developing countries‚ and are frequently inaccurate throughout much of the world‚ consequently suggesting different biodiversity patterns from checklist data. Global analyses reveal hotspots of species richness‚ together generating a rare bimodal latitudinal richness gradient‚ and further analyses suggest that xeric areas‚ solar radiation‚ and non-forest plant productivity are among the most important global drivers of bee biodiversity. Together‚ our results provide a new baseline and best practices for studies on bees and other understudied invertebrates.
    Citation

    Orr, M. C., Hughes, A. C., Chesters, D., Pickering, J., Zhu, C. D., & Ascher, J. S. (2020). Global Patterns and Drivers of Bee Distribution. Current Biology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2020.10.053

  35. Rossetto, M., Wilson, P. D., Bragg, J., Cohen, J., Fahey, M., Yap, J. Y. S., & van der Merwe, M. (2020). Perceptions of Similarity Can Mislead Provenancing Strategies—An Example from Five Co-Distributed Acacia Species. Diversity, 12(8), 306. https://doi.org/10.3390/d12080306

    Diversity
    Diversity
    Abstract

    Ecological restoration requires balancing levels of genetic diversity to achieve present-day establishment as well as long-term sustainability. Assumptions based on distributional‚ taxonomic or functional generalizations are often made when deciding how to source plant material for restoration. We investigate this assumption and ask whether species-specific data is required to optimize provenancing strategies. We use population genetic and environmental data from five congeneric and largely co-distributed species of Acacia to specifically ask how different species-specific genetic provenancing strategies are based on empirical data and how well a simple‚ standardized collection strategy would work when applied to the same species. We find substantial variability in terms of patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation across the landscape among these five co-distributed Acacia species. This variation translates into substantial differences in genetic provenancing recommendations among species (ranging from 100% to less than 1% of observed genetic variation across species) that could not have been accurately predicted a priori based on simple observation or overall distributional patterns. Furthermore‚ when a common provenancing strategy was applied to each species‚ the recommended collection areas and the evolutionary representativeness of such artificially standardized areas were substantially different (smaller) from those identified based on environmental and genetic data. We recommend the implementation of the increasingly accessible array of evolutionary-based methodologies and information to optimize restoration efforts.
    Citation

    Rossetto, M., Wilson, P. D., Bragg, J., Cohen, J., Fahey, M., Yap, J. Y. S., & van der Merwe, M. (2020). Perceptions of Similarity Can Mislead Provenancing Strategies—An Example from Five Co-Distributed Acacia Species. Diversity, 12(8), 306. https://doi.org/10.3390/d12080306

  36. Robinson, S. A., Baker, G. B., & Barclay, C. (2020). Controlling the rainbow lorikeet in Tasmania: is it too late? Emu, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1080/01584197.2020.1852574

    Emu
    Emu
    Abstract

    Throughout the world‚ many parrot species have established wild populations outside their natural range through accidental escapes and deliberate releases from captivity. The Rainbow Lorikeet (Trichoglossus moluccanus)‚ native to coastal northern and eastern continental Australia‚ has established viable populations in Western Australia and New Zealand from escaped or released pets and more recently have established in Tasmania. The Western Australian experience with introduced Rainbow Lorikeets‚ clearly shows that significant costs and impacts to agriculture‚ the environment and human amenities can be expected if this species is not controlled in the early stages of population increase‚ while in New Zealand‚ early intervention has proven successful in removing the species from the wild. This study examines sighting records of Rainbow Lorikeets in Tasmania which have gradually established over 20 years and we present a model to assist in determining likely population trajectories under various scenarios of control. Modelling indicates that the removal of 200 birds per year from each of the three Tasmanian sub-populations would decrease numbers to near-zero within 4.6 years. This demonstrates the opportunity to effectively control the Rainbow Lorikeet in Tasmania still exists and substantial damage to agriculture and impacts to conservation values can be avoided‚ resulting in significant cost savings to the Tasmanian community.
    Citation

    Robinson, S. A., Baker, G. B., & Barclay, C. (2020). Controlling the rainbow lorikeet in Tasmania: is it too late? Emu, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1080/01584197.2020.1852574

  37. Sanchez‐Martinez, P., Martínez‐Vilalta, J., Dexter, K. G., Segovia, R. A., & Mencuccini, M. (2020). Adaptation and coordinated evolution of plant hydraulic traits. Ecology Letters. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13584

    Ecology Letters
    Abstract

    Hydraulic properties control plant responses to climate and are likely to be under strong selective pressure‚ but their macro-evolutionary history remains poorly characterised. To fill this gap‚ we compiled a global dataset of hydraulic traits describing xylem conductivity (Ks)‚ xylem resistance to embolism (P50)‚ sapwood allocation relative to leaf area (Hv) and drought exposure (ψmin)‚ and matched it with global seed plant phylogenies. Individually‚ these traits present medium to high levels of phylogenetic signal‚ partly related to environmental selective pressures shaping lineage evolution. Most of these traits evolved independently of each other‚ being co-selected by the same environmental pressures. However‚ the evolutionary correlations between P50 and ψmin and between Ks and Hv show signs of deeper evolutionary integration because of functional‚ developmental or genetic constraints‚ conforming to evolutionary modules. We do not detect evolutionary integration between conductivity and resistance to embolism‚ rejecting a hardwired trade-off for this pair of traits.
    Citation

    Sanchez‐Martinez, P., Martínez‐Vilalta, J., Dexter, K. G., Segovia, R. A., & Mencuccini, M. (2020). Adaptation and coordinated evolution of plant hydraulic traits. Ecology Letters. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13584

  38. Sandoval-Castillo, J., Gates, K., Brauer, C. J., Smith, S., Bernatchez, L., & Beheregaray, L. B. (2020). Adaptation of plasticity to projected maximum temperatures and across climatically defined bioregions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921124117

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Abstract

    Resilience to environmental stressors due to climate warming is influenced by local adaptations‚ including plastic responses. The recent literature has focused on genomic signatures of climatic adaptation‚ but little is known about how plastic capacity may be influenced by biogeographic and evolutionary processes. We investigate phenotypic plasticity as a target of climatic selection‚ hypothesizing that lineages that evolved in warmer climates will exhibit greater plastic adaptive resilience to upper thermal stress. This was experimentally tested by comparing transcriptomic responses within and among temperate‚ subtropical‚ and desert ecotypes of Australian rainbowfish subjected to contemporary and projected summer temperatures. Critical thermal maxima were estimated‚ and ecological niches delineated using bioclimatic modeling. A comparative phylogenetic expression variance and evolution model was used to assess plastic and evolved changes in gene expression. Although 82% of all expressed genes were found in the three ecotypes‚ they shared expression patterns in only 5 out of 236 genes that responded to the climate change experiment. A total of 532 genes showed signals of adaptive (i.e.‚ genetic-based) plasticity due to ecotype-specific directional selection‚ and 23 of those responded to projected summer temperatures. Network analyses demonstrated centrality of these genes in thermal response pathways. The greatest adaptive resilience to upper thermal stress was shown by the subtropical ecotype‚ followed by the desert and temperate ecotypes. Our findings indicate that vulnerability to climate change will be highly influenced by biogeographic factors‚ emphasizing the value of integrative assessments of climatic adaptive traits for accurate estimation of population and ecosystem responses.
    Citation

    Sandoval-Castillo, J., Gates, K., Brauer, C. J., Smith, S., Bernatchez, L., & Beheregaray, L. B. (2020). Adaptation of plasticity to projected maximum temperatures and across climatically defined bioregions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921124117

  39. Santos, A. A., Leijs, R., Picanço, M. C., Glatz, R., & Hogendoorn, K. (2020). Modelling the climate suitability of green carpenter bee (Xylocopa aerata) and its nesting hosts under current and future scenarios to guide conservation efforts. Austral Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12853

    Austral Ecology
    Abstract

    Due to local extinction‚ the endangered green carpenter bee (Xylocopa aerata) has a disjunct distribution in the southeast of Australia. The species relies on dead softwood from a small selection of plant species for making its nests. Habitat fragmentation‚ combined with deleterious fire events‚ is thought to have negatively impacted on nesting substrate availability and recolonisation chances. Here‚ we use MaxEnt algorithm to model both the current distribution and the effect of climate change scenarios on the distribution of both X. aerata and four plant species that provide most of its nesting substrate: Banksia integrifolia‚ B. marginata‚ Xanthorrhoea arborea and Xanthorrhoea semiplana subsp. tateana. The annual mean temperature is the strongest climatic predictor of the distribution of X. aerata and its host plants. The modelled distribution of the bee under current climatic conditions indicates that climatic factors are unlikely to cause local extinctions. In all future scenarios‚ suitable areas for X. aerata and each of its nesting hosts are expected to contract towards the southeast of mainland Australia. The suitability of Kangaroo Island for the bee and its current local current host species is maintained in all scenarios‚ while Tasmania will become increasingly suitable for all species. The Grampians National Park in western Victoria‚ where the bee species were last seen outside of its current range (in the 1930s)‚ is predicted to remain suitable for X. aerata and several host plants under all scenarios. Therefore‚ this relatively large area of native vegetation may be a good case study for re-introduction as part of future conservation efforts.
    Citation

    Santos, A. A., Leijs, R., Picanço, M. C., Glatz, R., & Hogendoorn, K. (2020). Modelling the climate suitability of green carpenter bee (Xylocopa aerata) and its nesting hosts under current and future scenarios to guide conservation efforts. Austral Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12853

  40. Shabani, F., Ahmadi, M., Kumar, L., Solhjouy-fard, S., Shafapour Tehrany, M., Shabani, F., Kalantar, B., & Esmaeili, A. (2020). Invasive weed species’ threats to global biodiversity: Future scenarios of changes in the number of invasive species in a changing climate. Ecological Indicators, 116, 106436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106436

    Ecological Indicators
    Abstract

    Invasive weed species (IWS) threaten ecosystems‚ the distribution of specific plant species‚ as well as agricultural productivity. Predicting the impact of climate change on the current and future distributions of these unwanted species forms an important category of ecological research. Our study investigated 32 globally important IWS to assess whether climate alteration may lead to spatial changes in the overlapping of specific IWS globally. We utilized the versatile species distribution model MaxEnt‚ coupled with Geographic Information Systems‚ to evaluate the potential alterations (gain/loss/static) in the number of potential ecoregion invasions by IWS‚ under four Representative Concentration Pathways‚ which differ in terms of predicted year of peak greenhouse gas emission. We based our projection on a forecast of climatic variables (extracted from WorldClim) from two global circulation models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM). Initially‚ we modeled current climatic suitability of habitat‚ individually for each of the 32 IWS‚ identifying those with a common spatial range of suitability. Thereafter‚ we modeled the suitability of all 32 species under the projected climate for 2050‚ incorporating each of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6‚ 4.5‚ 6.0‚ and 8.5) in separate models‚ again examining the common spatial overlaps. The discrimination capacity and accuracy of the model were assessed for all 32 IWS individually‚ using the area under the curve and true skill statistic rate‚ with results averaging 0.87 and 0.75 respectively‚ indicating a high level of accuracy. Our final methodological step compared the extent of the overlaps and alterations under the current and future projected climates. Our results mainly predicted decrease on a global scale‚ in areas of habitat suitable for most IWS‚ under future climatic conditions‚ excluding European countries‚ northern Brazil‚ eastern US‚ and south-eastern Australia. The following should be considered when interpreting these results: there are many inherent assumptions and limitations in presence-only data of this type‚ as well as with the modeling techniques projecting climate conditions‚ and the envelopes themselves‚ such as scale and resolution mismatches‚ dispersal barriers‚ lack of documentation on potential disturbances‚ and unknown or unforeseen biotic interactions.
    Citation

    Shabani, F., Ahmadi, M., Kumar, L., Solhjouy-fard, S., Shafapour Tehrany, M., Shabani, F., Kalantar, B., & Esmaeili, A. (2020). Invasive weed species’ threats to global biodiversity: Future scenarios of changes in the number of invasive species in a changing climate. Ecological Indicators, 116, 106436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106436

  41. Tulloch, V., Grech, A., Jonsen, I., Pirotta, V., & Harcourt, R. (2020). Cost-effective mitigation strategies to reduce bycatch threats to cetaceans identified using return-on-investment analysis. Conservation Biology, 34(1), 168–179. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13418

    Conservation Biology
    Abstract

    Globally‚ fisheries bycatch threatens the survival of many whale and dolphin species. Strategies for reducing bycatch can be expensive. Management is inclined to prioritize investment in actions that are inexpensive‚ but these may not be the most effective. We used an economic tool‚ return-on-investment‚ to identify cost-effective measures to reduce cetacean bycatch in the trawl‚ net‚ and line fisheries of Australia. We examined 3 management actions: spatial closures‚ acoustic deterrents‚ and gear modifications. We compared an approach for which the primary goal was to reduce the cost of bycatch reduction to fisheries with an approach that aims solely to protect whale and dolphin species. Based on cost-effectiveness and at a fine spatial resolution‚ we identified the management strategies across Australia that most effectively abated dolphin and whale bycatch. Although trawl-net modifications were the cheapest strategy overall‚ there were many locations where spatial closures were the most cost-effective solution‚ despite their high costs to fisheries‚ due to their effectiveness in reducing all fisheries interactions. Our method can be used to delineate strategies to reduce bycatch threats to mobile marine species across diverse fisheries at relevant spatial scales to improve conservation outcomes.
    Citation

    Tulloch, V., Grech, A., Jonsen, I., Pirotta, V., & Harcourt, R. (2020). Cost-effective mitigation strategies to reduce bycatch threats to cetaceans identified using return-on-investment analysis. Conservation Biology, 34(1), 168–179. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13418

  42. Udyawer, V., Somaweera, R., Nitschke, C., d’Anastasi, B., Sanders, K., Webber, B. L., Hourston, M., & Heupel, M. R. (2020). Prioritising search effort to locate previously unknown populations of endangered marine reptiles. Global Ecology and Conservation, 22, e01013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01013

    Global Ecology and Conservation
    Abstract

    Strategies aimed to conserve and manage rare species are often hindered by the lack of data needed for their effective design. Incomplete and inaccurate data on habitat associations and current species distributions pose a barrier to effective conservation and management for several species of endemic sea snakes in Western Australia that are thought to be in decline. Here we used a correlative modelling approach to understand habitat associations and identify suitable habitats for five of these species (Aipysurus apraefrontalis‚ A. foliosquama‚ A. fuscus‚ A. l. pooleorum and A. tenuis). We modelled species-specific habitat suitability across 804‚244 km2 of coastal waters along the North-west Shelf of Western Australia‚ to prioritise future survey regions to locate unknown populations of these rare species. Model projections were also used to quantify the effectiveness of current spatial management strategies (Marine Protected Areas) in conserving important habitats for these species. Species-specific models matched well with the records on which they were trained‚ and identified additional regions of suitability without records. Subsequent field validation of the model projections uncovered a previously unknown locality for A. fuscus within the mid-shelf shoal region‚ outside its currently recognised global range. Defining accurate geographic distributions for rare species is a vital first step in defining more robust extent of species occurrence and range overlap with threatening processes.
    Citation

    Udyawer, V., Somaweera, R., Nitschke, C., d’Anastasi, B., Sanders, K., Webber, B. L., Hourston, M., & Heupel, M. R. (2020). Prioritising search effort to locate previously unknown populations of endangered marine reptiles. Global Ecology and Conservation, 22, e01013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01013

  43. Uzqueda, A., Burnett, S., Bertola, L. V., & Hoskin, C. J. (2020). Quantifying range decline and remaining populations of the large marsupial carnivore of Australia’s tropical rainforest. Journal of Mammalogy. https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyaa077

    Journal of Mammalogy
    Abstract

    Large predators are particularly susceptible to population declines due to large area requirements‚ low population density‚ and conflict with humans. Their low density and secretive habits also make it difficult to know the spatial extent‚ size‚ and connectivity of populations; declines hence can go unnoticed. Here‚ we quantified decline in a large marsupial carnivore‚ the spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculatus gracilis)‚ endemic to the Wet Tropics rainforest of northeast Australia. We compiled a large database of occurrence records and used species distributional modeling to estimate the distribution in four time periods (Pre-1956‚ 1956–1975‚ 1976–1995‚ 1996–2016) using climate layers and three human-use variables. The most supported variables in the distribution models were climatic‚ with highly suitable quoll habitat having relatively high precipitation‚ low temperatures‚ and a narrow annual range in temperature. Land-use type and road density also influenced quoll distribution in some time periods. The modeling revealed a significant decline in the distribution of D. m. gracilis over the last century‚ with contraction away from peripheral areas and from large areas of the Atherton Tablelands in the center of the distribution. Tests of the change in patch availability for populations of 20‚ 50‚ and 100 individuals revealed a substantial (17–32%) decline in available habitat for all population sizes‚ with a particular decline (31–40%) in core habitat (i.e.‚ excluding edges). Six remaining populations were defined. Extrapolating capture–recapture density estimates derived from two populations in 2017 suggests these populations are small and range from about 10 to 160 individuals. Our total population estimate sums to 424 individuals‚ but we outline why this estimate is positively skewed and that the actual population size may be < 300 individuals. Continued decline and apparent absence in areas of highly suitable habitat suggests some threats are not being captured in our models. From our results‚ we provide management and research recommendations for this enigmatic predator.
    Citation

    Uzqueda, A., Burnett, S., Bertola, L. V., & Hoskin, C. J. (2020). Quantifying range decline and remaining populations of the large marsupial carnivore of Australia’s tropical rainforest. Journal of Mammalogy. https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyaa077

  44. Viacava, P., Blomberg, S. P., Sansalone, G., Phillips, M. J., Guillerme, T., Cameron, S. F., Wilson, R. S., & Weisbecker, V. (2020). Skull shape of a widely distributed, endangered marsupial reveals little evidence of local adaptation between fragmented populations. Ecology and Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6593

    Ecology and Evolution
    Abstract

    The biogeographic distribution of diversity among populations of threatened mammalian species is generally investigated using population genetics. However‚ intraspecific phenotypic diversity is rarely assessed beyond taxonomy-focused linear measurements or qualitative descriptions. Here‚ we use a technique widely used in the evolutionary sciences—geometric morphometrics—to characterize shape diversity in the skull of an endangered marsupial‚ the northern quoll‚ across its 5‚000 km distribution range along Northern Australia. Skull shape is a proxy for feeding‚ behavior‚ and phenotypic differentiation‚ allowing us to ask whether populations can be distinguished and whether patterns of variation indicate adaptability to changing environmental conditions. We analyzed skull shape in 101 individuals across four mainland populations and several islands. We assessed the contribution of population‚ size‚ sex‚ rainfall‚ temperature‚ and geography to skull shape variation using principal component analysis‚ Procrustes ANOVA‚ and variation partitioning analyses. The populations harbor similar amounts of broadly overlapping skull shape variation‚ with relatively low geographic effects. Size predicted skull shape best‚ coinciding with braincase size variation and differences in zygomatic arches. Size-adjusted differences in populations explained less variation with far smaller effect sizes‚ relating to changes in the insertion areas of masticatory muscles‚ as well as the upper muzzle and incisor region. Climatic and geographic variables contributed little. Strikingly‚ the vast majority of shape variation—76%—remained unexplained. Our results suggest a uniform intraspecific scope for shape variation‚ possibly due to allometric constraints or phenotypic plasticity beyond the relatively strong allometric effect. The lack of local adaptation indicates that cross-breeding between populations will not reduce local morphological skull (and probably general musculoskeletal) adaptation because none exists. However‚ the potential for heritable morphological variation (e.g.‚ specialization to local diets) seems exceedingly limited. We conclude that 3D geometric morphometrics can provide a comprehensive‚ statistically rigorous phenomic contribution to genetic-based conservation studies.
    Citation

    Viacava, P., Blomberg, S. P., Sansalone, G., Phillips, M. J., Guillerme, T., Cameron, S. F., Wilson, R. S., & Weisbecker, V. (2020). Skull shape of a widely distributed, endangered marsupial reveals little evidence of local adaptation between fragmented populations. Ecology and Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6593

  45. von Takach, B., Scheele, B. C., Moore, H., Murphy, B. P., & Banks, S. C. (2020). Patterns of niche contraction identify vital refuge areas for declining mammals. Diversity and Distributions. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13145

    Diversity and Distributions
    Abstract

    Aim Investigation of realized niche contraction in declining species can help us understand how and where threats are being either mediated or tolerated across landscapes. It also provides insights into species’ sensitivity to environmental change that are unable to be identified through analysis of declines in range size or abundance alone. Here‚ we apply the recently proposed ’niche reduction hypothesis’ to investigate relationships between trends in niche breadth and geographic distribution of declining species. Location Northern Australia. Methods We compare and contrast contemporary and historical data sets to examine the relationship between extent of occurrence (EOO) and realized niche hypervolume‚ and investigate changes in species’ utilization of environmental space through time via generalized linear modelling and bootstrapping of historical values. We also use the ’Maxent’ algorithm to create and stack contemporary and historical ecological niche models (ENMs) and identify regions where resilience to threatening processes is maximized. Results We found larger mean reductions in niche hypervolume (39%) than EOO (30.5%)‚ with little correlation (r = 0.07) between the two measures‚ suggesting that contraction of realized niche breadth can be largely independent of reduction in EOO. We also identified a general set of environmental conditions towards which species’ realized niches contracted. Comparison of stacked ENMs allowed us to identify regions of natural refuge where environmental conditions are associated with increased species resilience to threats‚ and conversely‚ regions where habitat suitability has declined. Main conclusions Examining species declines from an ecological niche perspective provides a powerful tool for understanding how environmental conditions‚ biotic interactions and species traits shape responses to local and global environmental changes. Quantifying reductions in niche breadth is crucial as contraction to a narrower subset of environmental space can reduce a species’ ability to tolerate other threats and potentially lower adaptive capacity and genetic diversity‚ increasing extinction risk.
    Citation

    von Takach, B., Scheele, B. C., Moore, H., Murphy, B. P., & Banks, S. C. (2020). Patterns of niche contraction identify vital refuge areas for declining mammals. Diversity and Distributions. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13145

  46. White, L., Catterall, C., & Taffs, K. (2020). The habitat and management of hairy jointgrass (Arthraxon hispidus, Poaceae) on the north coast of New South Wales, Australia. Pacific Conservation Biology, 26(1), 45–56. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC19017

    Pacific Conservation Biology
    Abstract

    Ecological information about threatened species is required to guide strategic management approaches for effective biodiversity conservation in Australia. Arthraxon hispidus (hairy jointgrass) is a listed threatened species in New South Wales (NSW)‚ but there is limited information on its habitat preferences and native vegetation associations‚ as well as the impact of historical and ongoing anthropogenic disturbance on its distribution and abundance. In the present study‚ populations of A. hispidus on the north coast of NSW were surveyed to investigate the habitat characteristics associated with various occurrences of the species. Its preferred habitat was found to be dense ground-cover formations in high-moisture‚ low-canopy conditions. Cover was highest in moisture-associated assemblages in and around wetlands‚ drainage lines and groundwater seepages‚ often in association with native grasses‚ sedges and herbs. These findings suggest that naturally open freshwater wetland communities comprise the most plausible native habitat niches for A. hispidus populations on the north coast of NSW. A. hispidus also occurs widely among introduced pastures and weeds in previously forested areas‚ demonstrating the species’ potential to exploit derived habitat. Results indicate that‚ although ongoing disturbance continues to promote A. hispidus in these exotic-dominated landscapes where historical clearing has created potential habitat opportunities‚ anthropogenic disturbance (slashing or cattle grazing) is not necessary to sustain A. hispidus within native-dominated wetland communities. Findings suggest more scope for integrated management of A. hispidus within broader native vegetation conservation strategies rather than a single species approach.
    Citation

    White, L., Catterall, C., & Taffs, K. (2020). The habitat and management of hairy jointgrass (Arthraxon hispidus, Poaceae) on the north coast of New South Wales, Australia. Pacific Conservation Biology, 26(1), 45–56. https://doi.org/10.1071/PC19017

  47. Zhang, X., Wei, H., Zhang, X., Liu, J., Zhang, Q., & Gu, W. (2020). Non-Pessimistic Predictions of the Distributions and Suitability of Metasequoia glyptostroboides under Climate Change Using a Random Forest Model. Forests, 11(1), 62. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11010062

    Forests
    Forests
    Abstract

    Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & W. C. Cheng‚ which is a remarkable rare relict plant‚ has gradually been reduced to its current narrow range due to climate change. Understanding the comprehensive distribution of M. glyptostroboides under climate change on a large spatio-temporal scale is of great significance for determining its forest adaptation. In this study‚ based on 394 occurrence data and 10 bioclimatic variables‚ the global potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides under eight different climate scenarios (i.e.‚ the past three‚ the current one‚ and the next four) from the Quaternary glacial to the future was simulated by a random forest model built with the biomod2 package. The key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of M. glyptostroboides are BIO2 (mean diurnal range)‚ BIO1 (annual mean temperature)‚ BIO9 (mean temperature of driest quarter)‚ BIO6 (min temperature of coldest month)‚ and BIO18 (precipitation of warmest quarter). The result indicates that the temperature affects the potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides more than the precipitation. A visualization of the results revealed that the current relatively suitable habitats of M. glyptostroboides are mainly distributed in East Asia and Western Europe‚ with a total area of approximately 6.857 × 106 km2. With the intensification of global warming in the future‚ the potential distribution and the suitability of M. glyptostroboides have a relatively non-pessimistic trend. Whether under the mild (RCP4.5) and higher (RCP8.5) emission scenarios‚ the total area of suitable habitats will be wider than it is now by the 2070s‚ and the habitat suitability will increase to varying degrees within a wide spatial range. After speculating on the potential distribution of M. glyptostroboides in the past‚ the glacial refugia of M. glyptostroboides were inferred‚ and projections regarding the future conditions of these places are expected to be optimistic. In order to better protect the species‚ the locations of its priority protected areas and key protected areas‚ mainly in Western Europe and East Asia‚ were further identified. Our results will provide theoretical reference for the long-term management of M. glyptostroboides‚ and can be used as background information for the restoration of other endangered species in the future.
    Citation

    Zhang, X., Wei, H., Zhang, X., Liu, J., Zhang, Q., & Gu, W. (2020). Non-Pessimistic Predictions of the Distributions and Suitability of Metasequoia glyptostroboides under Climate Change Using a Random Forest Model. Forests, 11(1), 62. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11010062

  48. Zhang, Z., Capinha, C., Karger, D. N., Turon, X., MacIsaac, H. J., & Zhan, A. (2020). Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians. Marine Environmental Research, 104993. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.104993

    Marine Environmental Research
    Abstract

    Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here‚ we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly‚ currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted‚ suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas‚ Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast‚ African coasts‚ excluding the Mediterranean side‚ are not prone to new invasions‚ likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks‚ which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.
    Citation

    Zhang, Z., Capinha, C., Karger, D. N., Turon, X., MacIsaac, H. J., & Zhan, A. (2020). Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians. Marine Environmental Research, 104993. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2020.104993

  49. Wiltshire, K. H., & Tanner, J. E. (2020). Comparing maximum entropy modelling methods to inform aquaculture site selection for novel seaweed species. Ecological Modelling, 429, 109071. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109071

    Ecological Modelling
    Abstract

    Maximum entropy (maxent) modelling is a widely used method for developing species distribution models (SDMs)‚ but default maxent modelling methods can result in overly complex models with poor transferability. Methods suggested to reduce overfitting include increasing regularisation‚ using only linear and quadratic features‚ or applying forward selection of predictors using maximum likelihood (ML) methods. We built models using these options to determine environmental suitability within existing aquaculture zones for eight seaweed species‚ four red (Rhodophyta: Florideophyceae) and four brown (Ochrophyta: Phaeophyceae)‚ that are being investigated for aquaculture in southern Australia. Forward selection models were the most parsimonious‚ but we encountered failure of ML methods for Pterocladia lucida (Rhodophyta) due to separation. Separation is a known issue for logistic regression and has recently been recognised in maxent models. Separation occurs where a variable‚ or combination of variables‚ is a perfect predictor for a binary response‚ here‚ species occurrence‚ and results in ML parameter estimates tending to infinity. One method for obtaining finite parameter estimates under separation is to apply a Cauchy prior distribution for coefficients. We therefore also built models for each species using a Cauchy-prior version of the forward selection method‚ and found that these models performed similarly to those built with ML methods. Default models achieved marginally higher predictive performance than other options based on training data metrics‚ but simpler models performed equivalently to‚ or better than‚ default models at predicting independent presence-absence test data. Predictive performance using test data varied considerably between species‚ but the difference in performance between models within each species was generally small. Our results confirm the concern that default maxent models may suffer from over-fitting and poor transferability. Model transferability and interpretability were important for our purpose‚ hence‚ based on the principle of parsimony‚ forward selection models were preferred. We also found that forward selection models retained similar predictive performance to the best model as assessed by each metric‚ further supporting use of these models. Where ML methods failed due to separation‚ the use of the Cauchy-prior method was a viable alternative. Predictions for the region of interest (Spencer Gulf‚ South Australia) were generated using the most parsimonious models‚ and Solieria robusta (Rhodophyta) showed the highest predicted suitability of the eight candidate species within existing aquaculture zones‚ especially in northern Spencer Gulf. Predicted suitability was low for the other Rhodophyta considered‚ while each of the Phaeophyceae showed moderate to high suitability in at least some southern Spencer Gulf aquaculture zones. These model results help to inform selection of the best candidate species and suitable farming areas for future research.
    Citation

    Wiltshire, K. H., & Tanner, J. E. (2020). Comparing maximum entropy modelling methods to inform aquaculture site selection for novel seaweed species. Ecological Modelling, 429, 109071. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109071

  50. Zhou, Y., Rodriguez, J., Fisher, N., & Catullo, R. A. (2020). Ecological Drivers and Sex-Based Variation in Body Size and Shape in the Queensland Fruit Fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae). Insects, 11(6), 390. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects11060390

    Insects
    Insects
    Abstract

    The Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni; Q-fly) is an Australian endemic horticultural pest species‚ which has caused enormous economic losses. It has the potential to expand its range to currently Q-fly-free areas and poses a serious threat to the Australian horticultural industry. A large number of studies have investigated the correlation between environmental factors and Q-fly development‚ reproduction‚ and expansion. However‚ it is still not clear how Q-fly morphological traits vary with the environment. Our study focused on three morphological traits (body size‚ wing shape‚ and fluctuating asymmetry) in Q-fly samples collected from 1955 to 1965. We assessed how these traits vary by sex‚ and in response to latitude‚ environmental variables‚ and geographic distance. First‚ we found sexual dimorphism in body size and wing shape‚ but not in fluctuating asymmetry. Females had a larger body size but shorter and wider wings than males‚ which may be due to reproductive and/or locomotion differences between females and males. Secondly‚ the body size of Q-flies varied with latitude‚ which conforms to Bergmann&rsquo;s rule. Finally‚ we found Q-fly wing shape was more closely related to temperature rather than aridity‚ and low temperature and high aridity may lead to high asymmetry in Q-fly populations.
    Citation

    Zhou, Y., Rodriguez, J., Fisher, N., & Catullo, R. A. (2020). Ecological Drivers and Sex-Based Variation in Body Size and Shape in the Queensland Fruit Fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae). Insects, 11(6), 390. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects11060390

  51. Gallagher, R. V. (2020). Final National prioritisation of Australian plants affected by the 2019-2020 bushfire season (p. 62). Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Water and Environment.
    https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/289205b6-83c5-480c-9a7d-3fdf3cde2f68/files/final-national-prioritisation-australian-plants-affected-2019-2020-bushfire-season.pdf

    Abstract

    During the 2019-2020 bushfire season‚ over 10 million hectares of Australia burned. In the
    aftermath‚ a continent-wide prioritisation was undertaken to identify which of Australia’s 26‚062
    plant taxa may be most at risk of impacts and extinction. This prioritisation was based on a set of
    11 criteria (A-K) developed in consultation with experts in plant and fire ecology‚ led by Dr
    Tony Auld of the NSW Department of Planning‚ Industry and Environment‚ and endorsed by
    the Wildlife and Threatened Species Bushfire Recovery Expert Panel.
    This Final Assessment refines and extends the methods applied in the Interim Assessment
    Report ver. 1.4 (Gallagher 2020) by including an additional 7‚058 plant taxa‚ new data on species
    traits‚ and revised spatial analysis for several criteria. As previously‚ 1‚335 plant taxa listed as
    threatened under the Commonwealth Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999
    (EPBC Act) and 4‚622 listed under state legislation have been assessed. Burnt area statistics are
    shown in Table ES1; 8% of EPBC Act taxa had more than 50% of their range burned during the
    2019-2020 fire season.
    Of the 26‚062 plant taxa assessed‚ 486 were prioritised as requiring immediate action to assess
    impacts and support recovery. These taxa had more than 80% of their range burnt‚ or were listed
    as Endangered or Critically Endangered under the EPBC Act or state/territory listings‚ or were
    listed as HIGH risk under two or more of the criteria assessed. Of these 486 high priority
    species‚ 369 appeared in the Interim Assessment‚ and 117 and 102 have been gained and lost‚
    respectively. These changes in species identified as high priority are due to the inclusion of more
    taxa‚ new trait data and refined threat information relative to the Interim Assessment.
    Citation

    Gallagher, R. V. (2020). Final National prioritisation of Australian plants affected by the 2019-2020 bushfire season (p. 62). Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Water and Environment.

  52. Zhu, L., Bloomfield, K. J., Asao, S., Tjoelker, M. G., Egerton, J. J. G., Hayes, L., Weerasinghe, L. K., Creek, D., Griffin, K. L., Hurry, V., Liddell, M., Meir, P., Turnbull, M. H., & Atkin, O. K. (2020). Acclimation of leaf respiration temperature responses across thermally contrasting biomes. New Phytologist. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16929

    New Phytologist
    Abstract

    Short-term temperature response curves of leaf dark respiration (R-T) provide insights into a critical process that influences plant net carbon exchange. This includes how respiratory traits acclimate to sustained changes in the environment. Our study analyses 860 high-resolution R-T (10–70°C range) curves for: (a) 62 evergreen species measured in two contrasting seasons across several field sites/biomes; and (b) 21 species (sub-set of those sampled in the field) grown in glasshouses at 20/15‚ 25/20 and 30/25 °C (day/night). In the field‚ across all sites/seasons‚ variations in R25 (measured at 25 °C) and the leaf-T where R reached its maximum (Tmax) were explained by growth-T (mean air-T of 30-days prior to measurement)‚ solar irradiance and vapor pressure deficit‚ with growth-T having the strongest influence. R25 decreased and Tmax increased with rising growth-T across all sites and seasons with the single exception of winter at the cool-temperate rainforest site where irradiance was low. The glasshouse study confirmed that R25 and Tmax thermally acclimated. Collectively‚ the results suggest: (1) thermal acclimation of leaf R is common in most biomes; and‚ (2) the high-T threshold of respiration dynamically adjusts upward when plants are challenged with warmer and hotter climates.
    Citation

    Zhu, L., Bloomfield, K. J., Asao, S., Tjoelker, M. G., Egerton, J. J. G., Hayes, L., Weerasinghe, L. K., Creek, D., Griffin, K. L., Hurry, V., Liddell, M., Meir, P., Turnbull, M. H., & Atkin, O. K. (2020). Acclimation of leaf respiration temperature responses across thermally contrasting biomes. New Phytologist. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16929

  53. Ayre, B. (2020). The critical role of birds as pollinators of the Red and Green Kangaroo Paw, Anigozanthos manglesii [PhD]. University of Western Australia.
    https://doi.org/0.26182/5ee03087192ea

    Abstract

    Pollination by nectar-feeding birds is critical for the kangaroo paw Anigozanthos manglesii. Although the introduced European Honeybee‚ Apis mellifera‚ is the most common flower visitor‚ experimentally excluding nectar-feeding birds results in 81% fewer seeds‚ 67% fewer fruits‚ lower allelic diversity and lower levels of multiple paternity. Hand pollination experiments identified the presence of a near-neighbour optimal outcrossing distance‚ with seed set highest between near-neighbours and paternal success decreasing with increasing distance between plants. These results highlight that pollination by nectar-feeding birds can have unique genetic consequences‚ and that the introduced honeybee may negatively impact the pollination of some native plants.
    Citation

    Ayre, B. (2020). The critical role of birds as pollinators of the Red and Green Kangaroo Paw, Anigozanthos manglesii [PhD]. University of Western Australia.

  54. Martin, A. (2020). Persistence through resilience: How sexually deceptive orchids make the most of their pollinators. [PhD]. The University of Auckland.
    http://hdl.handle.net/2292/53030

    Abstract

    Exploitation of co-operative relationships is found widely in nature and deception can impose acute fitness costs (including death or reproductive loss)‚ so how do these relationships persist? The Australasian Tongue Orchids‚ Cryptostylis spp. are extreme deceivers: they achieve outstanding pollination rates‚ eliciting ejaculation from their male wasp pollinator‚ Lissopimpla excelsa. Here‚ I use this system to examine individual-level costs and responses to exploitation through field experiments and evaluate population-level responses to sexual deceit using mathematical modelling and a survey of museum and digital records.
    In my field experiments‚ I quantify the costs of sperm for orchid pollinators‚ finding males may become depleted in their lifetime. I also find evidence of localised morphological and behavioural changes in response to orchid deceit. Compared to the same insect species in areas without orchids‚ male pollinators in areas with orchids have longer antennae‚ take longer to arrive at an orchid‚ have shorter orchid mating durations‚ and have smaller ejaculates. Antennae length does not appear to be a counter-adaptation to deception as it does not confer discriminatory ability. Instead‚ males with longer antennae had faster response times and were more likely to pollinate orchids. I hypothesise that rather than counter-adaptations‚ by manipulating population sex-ratios‚ Cryptostylis orchids enhance the effects of scramble competition in this species: creating males that more readily search for‚ and pollinate‚ these orchids.
    Mathematical modelling shows that a putative ’resilience’ trait‚ haplodiploidy (in which females can reproduce without sperm‚ albeit only sons)‚ helps exploited pollinators persist when experiencing sperm depletion. Museum and digital records corroborate this finding. I present two models‚ one from an orchid’s and one from a pollinator’s perspective. I found that orchids exploiting haplodiploids receive a double advantage: a pollinator resilient to reproductive interference (haplodiploid populations were less likely to become extinct than diploids and had improved female production); and an enhanced supply of males to act as pollinators (orchids that target haplodiploid populations had higher pollination rates than if they were to target diploids). Combined‚ these findings present a novel mechanism to explain the persistence of costly relationships: resilience. The idea that certain pre-existing life-history traits allow pollinators to cope with exploitation while improving long-term exploiter success.
    Citation

    Martin, A. (2020). Persistence through resilience: How sexually deceptive orchids make the most of their pollinators. [PhD]. The University of Auckland.

  55. Salvi, A. M. (2020). Mesophyll Photosynthetic Sensitivity to Leaf Water Potential: Relationships to Climatic Distribution, Isohydry, and Hydraulic Traits [PhD]. The University of Wisconsin - Madison.
    https://search.proquest.com/docview/2448989737/abstract/9F4BAA6B4FC64E0DPQ/1

    Abstract

    One of the most important but least studied constraints on the evolution and productivity of land plants is the sensitivity of mesophyll photosynthetic capacity to leaf water potential. Although declines in photosynthetic rates during limited water supply partly reflect a drop in stomatal conductance‚ there is another‚ often overlooked cause: the tendency for intracellular photosynthetic capacity to shut down at low leaf water potentials. This tendency‚ which we term mesophyll photosynthetic sensitivity (MPS)‚ was likely an important constraint on the evolution of land plants and shaped several key traits affecting photosynthesis and stomatal behavior. However‚ almost nothing is known about how MPS varies across ecologically divergent plants. To explore this fundamental constraint on plant growth and competitive ability‚ I investigated under lab and field conditions how MPS differs in terrestrial plant species that vary drastically in native climatic conditions‚ ecophysiological behavior‚ and drought tolerance strategies‚ and asked how such sensitivity is related to peak photosynthetic rates‚ stomatal behavior‚ leaf anatomical traits related to gas exchange and hydraulic transport‚ and annual rainfall vs. pan evaporation in their native habitats.
    Studying ten dominant Eucalyptus species (five each from Eucalyptus subg. Symphyomyrtus and subg. Monocalyptus) and carefully accounting for phylogenetic relationships‚ I (1) compared MPS of these species grown in greenhouse conditions to the ratio of precipitation to pan evaporation of their natural distributions in Australia‚ and to their peak photosyn¬thetic rate and water potential at leaf wilting; (2) placed these species along the continuum of stomatal behavior continuum of isohydry to anisohydry‚ and determined how placement along this continuum relates to MPS and key gas-exchange and hydraulic parameters. Finally (3)‚ using five arboreal species of the Western United States that range across the iso- to anisohydric continuum‚ I investigated how dehydration tolerant vs. dehydration avoidant drought strategies‚ characterized by several stomatal and hydraulic traits‚ relate to MPS‚ and determined what role osmolytic sugars have on leaf water potential and MPS. This dissertation displays that MPS is tightly linked to habitat moisture availability and plant hydraulic behavior‚ suggesting possible use as a new drought tolerant trait in terrestrial plants.
    Citation

    Salvi, A. M. (2020). Mesophyll Photosynthetic Sensitivity to Leaf Water Potential: Relationships to Climatic Distribution, Isohydry, and Hydraulic Traits [PhD]. The University of Wisconsin - Madison.

2019

  1. Park, Y. J., Tuxworth, G., & Zhou, J. (2019). Insect Classification Using Squeeze-and-Excitation and Attention Modules - a Benchmark Study. Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE International Conference on Image Processing, 3437–3441.
    https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIP.2019.8803746

    2019 IEEE International Conference on Image Processing, ICIP 2019
    Abstract

    Insect recognition at the species level is an active research field with a variety of applications. With the advancement of convolutional neural networks an automatic fine-grained image classifier has displayed encouraging performance. Despite these recent advances‚ differentiating images at the species level is still a challenge. To address the problems arising from insect-specific peculiarities‚ this paper presents a novel network that consists of squeeze-and-excitation modules and attention modules‚ enabling the network to focus on more informative and differentiating features with a limited number of training iterations and a small dataset. The proposed model is trained on an insect dataset collected from Atlas of Living Australia. The results reveal that the integrated model achieves higher accuracy than several alternative methods on the introduced insect dataset.
    Citation

    Park, Y. J., Tuxworth, G., & Zhou, J. (2019). Insect Classification Using Squeeze-and-Excitation and Attention Modules - a Benchmark Study. Proceedings of the 2019 IEEE International Conference on Image Processing, 3437–3441.

  2. Booth, T. H. (2019). Assessing the thermal adaptability of tree provenances: an example using Eucalyptus tereticornis. Australian Forestry, 82(4), 176–180. https://doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2019.1680594

    Australian Forestry
    Abstract

    A 2017 paper intended to assist climate-change studies concluded that provenances of the widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis ‘are not differentiated in their thermal responses’ in terms of photosynthesis‚ respiration and growth. The aim here was to place this surprising result‚ based on a short-term (48-day) experiment with seedlings of just three provenances‚ into the broader context of several years’ growth of provenances of the same species. To do this‚ a re-analysis of results from trials of 14 provenances of E. tereticornis was undertaken. These were grown for 3.5 or 5.0 years at four contrasting sites in southern China spanning mean annual temperatures (MAT) from 15.0°C to 23.5°C. The analysis described here compares MATs at climate-of-origin with volume growth. It demonstrates an approach that could easily be applied to provenance studies of other commercially important species. It makes use of the ready access to distributional and climatic data provided by a modern biodiversity database‚ the Atlas of Living Australia. Some of the provenances showed a surprising level of adaptability to climates markedly different to those of their origin. At the warmest site in China‚ however‚ the growth of the provenances was significantly related to the MAT at their climate-of-origin. It is concluded that researchers considering the likely impacts of climate change on tree species may find it useful to examine results from commercial provenance trials as well as from glasshouse experiments with seedlings.
    Citation

    Booth, T. H. (2019). Assessing the thermal adaptability of tree provenances: an example using Eucalyptus tereticornis. Australian Forestry, 82(4), 176–180. https://doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2019.1680594

  3. Brook, B. W., Buettel, J. C., & Jarić, I. (2019). A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators. Ecology, e02787. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2787

    Ecology
    Ecology
    Abstract

    The pattern of sightings of a species that is rare‚ and then no longer observed‚ can be used to estimate its extinction date. However‚ other than physical captures or specimens‚ the veracity of any sighting is ambiguous‚ and should be treated probabilistically when used to infer extinction dates. We present a simple yet powerful computational approach for incorporating observational reliability into extinction date estimators (EDE). Our method: (i) combines repeated within-year sightings probabilistically‚ (ii) samples observations using reliability as an inclusion probability‚ (iii) infers a probability distribution and summary statistics of extinction dates with any EDE‚ and (iv) computes the frequency distribution of the extinction date. We applied this method to eight exemplar sighting records covering a range of lengths‚ sighting rates and uncertainties‚ using a variety of statistical EDEs‚ and compared these results with a threshold approach for selecting sightings. We also demonstrated a robust coverage of ‘true’ extinction dates based on selected real-world examples of rediscovered species and confirmed extinctions‚ and simulated sighting records. Our approach represents a powerful generalization of past work because it is not predicated on any specific method for inferring extinction dates‚ and yet is simple to implement (with R script provided). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Brook, B. W., Buettel, J. C., & Jarić, I. (2019). A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators. Ecology, e02787. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2787

  4. Caley, P., Welvaert, M., & Barry, S. C. (2019). Crowd surveillance: estimating citizen science reporting probabilities for insects of biosecurity concern. Journal of Pest Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10340-019-01115-7

    Journal of Pest Science
    Abstract

    Data streams arising from citizen reporting activities continue to grow‚ yet the information content within these streams remains unclear‚ and methods for addressing the inherent reporting biases little developed. Here‚ we quantify the major influence of physical insect features (colour‚ size‚ morphology‚ pattern) on the propensity of citizens to upload photographic sightings to online portals‚ and hence to contribute to biosecurity surveillance. After correcting for species availability‚ we show that physical features and pestiness are major predictors of reporting probability. The more distinctive the visual features‚ the higher the reporting probabilities—potentially providing useful surveillance should the species be an unwanted exotic. Conversely‚ the reporting probability for many small‚ nondescript high priority pest species is unlikely to be sufficient to contribute meaningfully to biosecurity surveillance‚ unless they are causing major harm. The lack of citizen reporting of recent incursions of small‚ nondescript exotic pests supports the model. By examining the types of insects of concern‚ industries or environmental managers can assess to what extent they can rely on citizen reporting for their surveillance needs. The citrus industry‚ for example‚ probably cannot rely on passive unstructured citizen data streams for surveillance of the Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri). In contrast‚ the forestry industry may consider that citizen detection and reporting of species of the large and colourful insects such as pine sawyers (Monochamus spp.) may be sufficient for their needs. Incorporating citizen surveillance into the general surveillance framework is an area for further research.
    Citation

    Caley, P., Welvaert, M., & Barry, S. C. (2019). Crowd surveillance: estimating citizen science reporting probabilities for insects of biosecurity concern. Journal of Pest Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10340-019-01115-7

  5. Conroy, G. C., Shimizu-Kimura, Y., Lamont, R. W., & Ogbourne, S. M. (2019). A multidisciplinary approach to inform assisted migration of the restricted rainforest tree, Fontainea rostrata. PLoS ONE, 14(1), e0210560. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210560

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    Assisted migration can aid in the conservation of narrowly endemic species affected by habitat loss‚ fragmentation and climate change. Here‚ we employ a multidisciplinary approach by examining the population genetic structure of a threatened‚ dioecious rainforest tree of the subtropical notophyll vine forests of eastern Australia‚ Fontainea rostrata‚ and its potential requirements for population enhancement and translocation to withstand the effects of anthropogenic fragmentation and climate change. We used microsatellite markers to gain an understanding of the way genetic diversity is partitioned within and among the nine extant populations of F. rostrata identified in this study. We combined the results with species distribution modelling to identify populations vulnerable to possible future range shifts based on climate change projections. We found regional differences between the species’ main distribution in the south and a disjunct northern population cluster (FRT = 0.074‚ FSR = 0.088‚ FST = 0.155)‚ in mean allelic richness (AR = 2.77 vs 2.33‚ p < 0.05)‚ expected heterozygosity (HE = 0.376 vs 0.328)‚ and inbreeding (F = 0.116 vs 0.219). Species distribution models predicted that while southern populations of F. rostrata are likely to persist for the next 50 years under the RCP6.0 climate change scenario‚ with potential for a small-scale expansion to the south-east‚ the more highly inbred and less genetically diverse northern populations will come under increasing pressure to expand southwards as habitat suitability declines. Given the species’ genetic structure and with the aim to enhance genetic diversity and maximise the likelihood of reproductive success‚ we recommend that plant reintroductions to supplement existing populations should be prioritised over translocation of the species to new sites. However‚ future conservation efforts should be directed at translocation to establish new sites to increase population connectivity‚ focussing particularly on habitat areas identified as persisting under conditions of climate change.
    Citation

    Conroy, G. C., Shimizu-Kimura, Y., Lamont, R. W., & Ogbourne, S. M. (2019). A multidisciplinary approach to inform assisted migration of the restricted rainforest tree, Fontainea rostrata. PLoS ONE, 14(1), e0210560. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0210560

  6. Esperon‐Rodriguez, M., Power, S. A., Tjoelker, M. G., Beaumont, L. J., Burley, H., Caballero‐Rodriguez, D., & Rymer, P. D. (2019). Assessing the vulnerability of Australia’s urban forests to climate extremes. Plants, People, Planet. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10064

    Plants, People, Planet
    Abstract

    Societal Impact Statement Urban forests are recognized for the multiple benefits they provide to city-dwellers. However‚ climate change will affect tree species survival and persistence in urban ecosystems. Tree failures will cause economic losses and jeopardize the delivery of societal benefits. The impacts of climate change will depend on the species’ resilience and adaptive capacity‚ as well as management actions which may ameliorate some of the negative impacts. Here‚ we assessed the potential vulnerability of Australia’s urban forests to climate extremes. Our results can be used for future urban planning aiming to incorporate species that are well-adapted to the hotter‚ drier climates expected with climate change. Summary Urban forests (UFs) are recognized for the multiple benefits they provide to city-dwellers. However‚ global climate change—particularly predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and drought—will affect tree species’ performance and survival in urban ecosystems. Here‚ we assessed species composition and potential vulnerability of UFs in 22 Australian significant urban areas (SUAs) to heat and/or moisture stress. We quantified species’ realized climatic niches across their known distribution‚ and assessed the extent to which baseline climate in the SUAs where a particular species is planted fell within its niche. We used three environmental variables to group species based on their potential climate vulnerability. UFs varied in species composition and climate vulnerability across the continent. In general‚ neither climate similarity nor geographical proximity were good predictors of species composition among UFs. Of 1‚342 tree species assessed (68.4% natives)‚ 53% were considered potentially vulnerable to heat and/or moisture stress in at least one city where they are currently planted. Our results highlight the climate vulnerability of current plantings across Australian SUAs and can be used to direct future species selection that considers the species’ climate of origin and climatic niche. UF planning can incorporate species from SUAs with similar climates and with low vulnerability to contemporary‚ as well as future climate conditions. Species with high climate vulnerability‚ in contrast‚ may require more intensive management to avoid failure under future hotter‚ drier climate conditions.
    Citation

    Esperon‐Rodriguez, M., Power, S. A., Tjoelker, M. G., Beaumont, L. J., Burley, H., Caballero‐Rodriguez, D., & Rymer, P. D. (2019). Assessing the vulnerability of Australia’s urban forests to climate extremes. Plants, People, Planet. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10064

  7. Foord, C. S., Rowe, K. M. C., & Robb, K. (2019). Cetacean biodiversity, spatial and temporal trends based on stranding records (1920-2016), Victoria, Australia. PLoS ONE, 14(10), e0223712. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223712

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    Cetacean stranding records can provide vital information on species richness and diversity through space and time. Here we collate stranding records from Victoria‚ Australia and assess them for temporal‚ spatial and demographic trends. Between 1920 and 2016‚ 424 stranding events involving 907 individuals were recorded across 31 Cetacea species from seven families‚ including five new species records for the state. Seven of these events were mass strandings‚ and six mother and calf strandings were recorded. Importantly‚ 48% of the species recorded are recognised as data deficient on the IUCN Red List. The most commonly recorded taxa were Tursiops spp. (n = 146) and Delphinus delphis (common dolphins‚ n = 81)‚ with the greatest taxonomic richness (n = 24) and highest incidence of stranding events documented within the Otways mesoscale bioregion. We found no seasonal stranding patterns anywhere in the state. While our findings improve understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of cetacean diversity within Victoria‚ we suggest greater effort to collect demographic data at stranding events in order to better study state-wide patterns through time. We conclude with guidelines for minimum data collection standards for future strandings to maximise information capture from each event.
    Citation

    Foord, C. S., Rowe, K. M. C., & Robb, K. (2019). Cetacean biodiversity, spatial and temporal trends based on stranding records (1920-2016), Victoria, Australia. PLoS ONE, 14(10), e0223712. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223712

  8. Graham, E. M., Reside, A. E., Atkinson, I., Baird, D., Hodgson, L., James, C. S., & VanDerWal, J. J. (2019). Climate change and biodiversity in Australia: a systematic modelling approach to nationwide species distributions. Australasian Journal of Environmental Management, 26(2), 112–123. https://doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2019.1599742

    Australasian Journal of Environmental Management
    Abstract

    Climate change is a driving force of changes to biodiversity worldwide and presents considerable management challenges for the resource-constrained environmental management sector. Effective management of biodiversity requires information about what species are present‚ how species respond to environmental conditions and which species are likely to be able to persist in the presence of ongoing change. Species distribution models are commonly used to predict future suitable habitat for particular species and areas of interest but a consistent nationwide approach is needed to understand how climate change will affect Australia’s biodiversity. Here we describe a modelling approach that uses a consistent workflow and expert vetting to create current and future species distributions for 1872 terrestrial and freshwater vertebrate species. We used two emission scenarios‚ 18 General Circulation Models and seven time points into the future to explore how individual species distributions and taxa richness in Australia are predicted to change due to climate change. The maps are publicly available online and stakeholders can download them for post hoc analyses to assist in both regional and national management and protection of biodiversity assets and conservation planning for the future.
    Citation

    Graham, E. M., Reside, A. E., Atkinson, I., Baird, D., Hodgson, L., James, C. S., & VanDerWal, J. J. (2019). Climate change and biodiversity in Australia: a systematic modelling approach to nationwide species distributions. Australasian Journal of Environmental Management, 26(2), 112–123. https://doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2019.1599742

  9. Hall, M. A., & Reboud, E. L. (2019). High sampling effectiveness for non-bee flower visitors using vane traps in both open and wooded habitats. Austral Entomology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1111/aen.12416

    Austral Entomology
    Abstract

    Many non-bee insects are important for pollination‚ yet few studies have assessed the effectiveness of sampling these taxa using low-cost techniques‚ such as coloured vane traps‚ among different habitat types. This study sampled 192 sites – 108 in wooded and 84 in open habitats – within an agricultural region of southern Australia. Pairs of blue and yellow vane traps were placed at each site for a period of seven days during the austral spring. Overall‚ 3114 flies (Diptera) from 19 families and 528 wasps (non-bee and non-formicid Hymenoptera) from 16 families were collected during the study. This sampling was representative of the region‚ with vane traps equally or more likely to collect as many families from both taxa as those reported on the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) database for the sampling area. Blue vane traps (BVTs) had greater average richness of both flies and wasps and greater activity density (abundance per 7-day sampling period) of individuals than yellow vane traps (YVTs). BVTs were particularly favoured by fly and wasp families known to pollinate flowers (e.g. Syrphidae‚ Bombyliidae and Scoliidae)‚ whilst YVTs sampled flower visitors that also provide additional ecosystem services‚ such as pest control and nutrient cycling. Here‚ vane traps were an effective sampling technique to capture non-bee flower visitors‚ such as flies and wasps. This study supports the use of vane traps as a component of the sampling protocol for ecological census and population monitoring within multiple habitat types‚ where colour attraction will more effectively sample a comprehensive pollinator community.
    Citation

    Hall, M. A., & Reboud, E. L. (2019). High sampling effectiveness for non-bee flower visitors using vane traps in both open and wooded habitats. Austral Entomology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1111/aen.12416

  10. Haque, M., Beaumont, L. J., & Nipperess, D. A. (2019). Taxonomic shortfalls in digitised collections of Australia’s flora. Biodiversity and Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-019-01885-7

    Biodiversity and Conservation
    Abstract

    Rapid growth in the digitisation of the world’s natural history collections substantially simplifies scientific access to taxonomic and biogeographic information. Despite recent efforts to collate more than two centuries of biodiversity inventories into comprehensive databases‚ these collections suffer limitations across spatial‚ temporal and taxonomic dimensions. We assessed taxonomic shortfalls in preserved specimens from 296 plant families native to Australia‚ for which records have been collated into the Australasian Virtual Herbarium (AVH)‚ specifically addressing the following questions: (1) Based on the number of specimen records per species‚ which Australian native plant families are under- or over-represented in the collection of preserved specimens digitised in the AVH? (2) To what extent does the distribution of collectors among plant families‚ or the area occupied by plant families‚ explain patterns of taxonomic representativeness? We found that the number of preserved specimens per family is not proportional to the family’s known species richness. For 29% of Australia’s plant families (i.e. 86)‚ the number of digitised records constitutes < 50% of the number expected given species richness within those families. Further‚ only 34% of families (100) have at least 20 specimens digitised for each species recorded in the AVH. Families occupying small areas (< 200 grid cells) are more likely to be under-represented taxonomically‚ while there is a strong positive correlation between the number of unique collectors and the extent of taxonomic over-representation. A sound understanding of biodiversity is critical for megadiverse countries such as Australia‚ and identifying biases in digital inventories may help with establishing future sampling and digitisation strategies to enhance taxonomic representation.
    Citation

    Haque, M., Beaumont, L. J., & Nipperess, D. A. (2019). Taxonomic shortfalls in digitised collections of Australia’s flora. Biodiversity and Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-019-01885-7

  11. Hawke, T., Bino, G., & Kingsford, R. T. (2019). A silent demise: Historical insights into population changes of the iconic platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus). Global Ecology and Conservation, e00720. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00720

    Global Ecology and Conservation
    Abstract

    Platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) are evolutionarily distinct monotremes‚ endemic to creeks and rivers of eastern Australia. Given recent evidence of a contracting distribution and local extinctions‚ the species was listed as ‘Near-Threatened’ in 2016. The magnitude of decline remains unknown‚ given little quantitative evidence of historical abundance and distribution. From data over 258 years (1760–2018)‚ distribution declines surpassed previous estimates‚ with 41.4% and 12.8% of sub-catchments having no records over the past 10 and 20 years‚ respectively. Additionally‚ 44% of sub-catchments within the potential range were lacking data. Further‚ historic accounts of platypus numbers during the 19th century far exceeded contemporary numbers‚ likely reflecting the impacts of the fur trade‚ exacerbated by recent synergistic threats of river regulation and habitat destruction. Improved monitoring is essential to increase understanding and inform effective management of this enigmatic and iconic mammal for which Australia has a global responsibility.
    Citation

    Hawke, T., Bino, G., & Kingsford, R. T. (2019). A silent demise: Historical insights into population changes of the iconic platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus). Global Ecology and Conservation, e00720. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00720

  12. Heringer, G., Bueno, M. L., Meira-Neto, J. A. A., Matos, F. A. R., & Neri, A. V. (2019). Can Acacia mangium and Acacia auriculiformis hinder restoration efforts in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest under current and future climate conditions? Biological Invasions. acaa2c4a-f449-386d-8c94-2d3c924e5efe. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-02024-7

    Biological Invasions
    Abstract

    Climate change and biological invasions are two of the most cited factors that may affect species diversity in the coming decades. Here we used five climate scenarios to investigate the potential distribution of two invasive tree species‚ Acacia mangium and A. auriculiformis‚ in the Atlantic Forest hotspot. Additionally‚ we used expansion–contraction maps and maps of potential areas for forest restoration to investigate whether biological invasion could affect restoration efforts. We found A. mangium has a large suitable area in all scenarios (average 268‚010.1 km2 ± 25‚292.4 SD)‚ while A auriculiformis is confined to a relatively small region (average 13‚123.1 km2 ± 361.7 SD). In the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 2.6)‚ the suitable area for A. mangium varied from the current scenario of 24.8% of the Atlantic Forest to 26.2% and 25.4% in the years 2050 and 2070‚ respectively. In the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5)‚ the suitable area contracted to 23.1% and 20.5% in 2050 and 2070‚ respectively. Approximately 30.8% of the potential area for restoration currently overlaps the suitable area for A. mangium‚ and this overlap reaches at least 23.8% of the potential areas for restoration in the future scenarios (RCP 8.5 in 2070). A. mangium has a large suitable area in the Atlantic Forest and can become a barrier to restoration efforts in the coming decades. Expansion–contraction maps should be used to establish environmental policies that promote both forest restoration and prevention of biological invasion in suitable areas.
    Citation

    Heringer, G., Bueno, M. L., Meira-Neto, J. A. A., Matos, F. A. R., & Neri, A. V. (2019). Can Acacia mangium and Acacia auriculiformis hinder restoration efforts in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest under current and future climate conditions? Biological Invasions. acaa2c4a-f449-386d-8c94-2d3c924e5efe. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-019-02024-7

  13. Jin, J., & Yang, J. (2019). BDcleaner: A workflow for cleaning taxonomic and geographic errors in occurrence data archived in biodiversity databases. Global Ecology and Conservation, e00852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00852

    Global Ecology and Conservation
    Abstract

    High-quality data are indispensable for research and management in biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless‚ errors in biodiversity data must be removed before they can be used with confidence. In this study‚ we have developed a workflow for cleaning occurrence data archived in various biodiversity databases. The workflow allows researchers and practitioners to identify taxonomic and geographic errors in millions of records in an automatic‚ reproducible‚ and transparent manner. It also allows users to correct several types of taxonomic and geographic errors. We applied the workflow to clean global tree occurrence records. The results showed that among the 30‚242‚556 occurrence records of 58‚034 species extracted from eight databases‚ only 8‚624‚319 (28.5%) records of 22‚766 (39.2%) species were classified as high quality after running through the workflow. Inaccurate and non-standard taxon names appeared as a more severe problem than geographical errors that people are most familiar with. The workflow developed in this study can be easily adapted to clean occurrence records of other taxonomic groups‚ which allows researchers and practitioners to reduce uncertainties in their findings.
    Citation

    Jin, J., & Yang, J. (2019). BDcleaner: A workflow for cleaning taxonomic and geographic errors in occurrence data archived in biodiversity databases. Global Ecology and Conservation, e00852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00852

  14. Medd, R. W., & Bower, C. C. (2019). Biodiversity and Endemism within the Mount Canobolas Volcanic Complex. Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales, 141.
    https://openjournals.library.sydney.edu.au/index.php/LIN/article/view/14205

    Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales
    Abstract

    Mt Canobolas State Conservation Area (SCA) hosts a small remnant of sub-alpine vegetation consisting of seven recognisable communities with the heathlands on the rock plates appearing to be unique to the SCA. The SCA has a known biota of 884 native species that includes 14 threatened species and at least 10 endemic taxa. Some 200 species are regionally significant‚ being either rare or at the limits of known geographic range. The vascular flora is particularly species-rich being considerably more diverse than nearby regional reserves and over 12 fold richer than comparable areas of the Kosciusko National Park. One of three endangered ecological communities‚ the Mt Canobolas Xanthoparmelia Lichen Community‚ is unique to the volcanic province.
    While there is some indication the endemic lithophytic lichens‚ the threatened Eucalyptus canobolensis and the heath communities may be substrate specific‚ there is no strong evidence of a geological association among other flora and fauna. We postulate that the presence of multiple endemic species reflects the geographic isolation which has provided an environment for species evolution by vicariance. Alternatively‚ Mt Canobolas has acted as a refugium for formerly widespread species that have become extinct elsewhere.
    Citation

    Medd, R. W., & Bower, C. C. (2019). Biodiversity and Endemism within the Mount Canobolas Volcanic Complex. Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales, 141.

  15. Ondei, S., Brook, B. W., & Buettel, J. C. (2019). A flexible tool to prioritize areas for conservation combining landscape units, measures of biodiversity, and threats. Ecosphere, 10(9), e02859. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2859

    Ecosphere
    Ecosphere
    Abstract

    Expanding the reserve system is a key strategy to enhance biodiversity protection. Yet‚ conservation outcomes can be undermined by underrepresentation of some habitats and opportunistic placement of protected areas. Irreplaceability and vulnerability‚ the key principles of conservation‚ should thus be combined within a bioregionalization framework to implement protection in the habitats that most need it. We proposed a simple and flexible method to prioritize bioregions for conservation based on these principles and used it to rank the 85 bioregions of the Australian continent. To do so‚ we quantified biodiversity values and threats in each bioregion by gathering open-access data on species‚ landscapes‚ and land use. Bioregions were then ranked using a set of customizable scenarios‚ including ecologically meaningful combinations of measures of irreplaceability and vulnerability. To identify biodiverse areas under threat but potentially overlooked‚ we compared our results with the location of already established biodiversity hotspots (i.e.‚ areas identified as important for biodiversity and under threat). We found that bioregions with the highest biodiversity values are predominantly located in the southwest‚ east‚ and north of the continent. Similarly‚ threats‚ particularly land clearance‚ are concentrated along the east coast and in the southwest. When ranking bioregions using scenarios including both threats and biodiversity values‚ the majority (75%) of the highest-ranking bioregions were already included in biodiversity hotspots. For five of these bioregions‚ the proportion of protected land to date still falls below the 17% recommended by the Convention on Biological Diversity and thus they likely require prompt prioritization and intervention. The method proposed can support ongoing monitoring and prioritization of land units for conservation. Its simplicity and flexibility mean it can be easily adopted for different areas and adjusted to local priorities.
    Citation

    Ondei, S., Brook, B. W., & Buettel, J. C. (2019). A flexible tool to prioritize areas for conservation combining landscape units, measures of biodiversity, and threats. Ecosphere, 10(9), e02859. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2859

  16. Pietras, M. (2019). First record of North American fungus Rhizopogon pseudoroseolus in Australia and prediction of its occurrence based on climatic niche and symbiotic partner preferences. Mycorrhiza. 19eaf710-aec3-3f39-a403-470dde8c4e25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00572-019-00899-x

    Mycorrhiza
    Mycorrhiza
    Abstract

    In 2017 a North American fungus‚ Rhizopogon pseudoroseolus (Boletales‚ Basidiomycota)‚ formerly known in Oceania as only occurring in New Zealand‚ was found for the first time in South Australia. The morphological identification of collected specimens was confirmed using an internal transcribed spacer barcoding approach. In this study‚ the biogeography of R. pseudoroseolus is also presented‚ based on sporocarp and ectomycorrhiza records. Species distribution modeling implemented in MaxEnt was used to estimate the distribution of the potential range of R. pseudoroseolus in Australia and New Zealand. The obtained model illustrates‚ in the background of climatic variables and distribution of a symbiotic partner‚ its wide range of suitable habitats in New Zealand‚ South-East Australia‚ and Tasmania. Precipitation of the coldest quarters and annual mean temperature are important factors influencing the potential distribution of the fungus. The occurrence of Pinus radiata‚ the ectomycorrhizal partner of R. pseudoroseolus‚ is also an important factor limiting expansion of the fungus’ invasion range.
    Citation

    Pietras, M. (2019). First record of North American fungus Rhizopogon pseudoroseolus in Australia and prediction of its occurrence based on climatic niche and symbiotic partner preferences. Mycorrhiza. 19eaf710-aec3-3f39-a403-470dde8c4e25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00572-019-00899-x

  17. Roycroft, E. J., Nations, J. A., & Rowe, K. C. (2019). Environment predicts repeated body size shifts in a recent radiation of Australian mammals. Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.13859

    Evolution
    Evolution
    Abstract

    Closely related species that occur across steep environmental gradients often display clear body size differences‚ and examining this pattern is crucial to understanding how environmental variation shapes diversity. Australian endemic rodents in the Pseudomys Division (Muridae: Murinae) have repeatedly colonized the arid‚ monsoon‚ and mesic biomes over the last 5 million years. Using occurrence records‚ body mass data‚ and Bayesian phylogenetic models we test whether body mass of 31 species in the Pseudomys Division can be predicted by their biome association. We also model the effect of eight environmental variables on body mass. Despite high phylogenetic signal in body mass evolution across the phylogeny‚ we find that mass predictably increases in the mesic biome‚ and decreases in arid and monsoon biomes. As per Bergmann’s rule‚ temperature is strongly correlated with body mass‚ as well as several other variables. Our results highlight two important findings. First‚ body size in Australian rodents has tracked with climate through the Pleistocene‚ likely due to several environmental variables rather than a single factor. Second‚ support for both Brownian motion and predictable change at different taxonomic levels in the Pseudomys Division phylogeny demonstrates how the level at which we test hypotheses can alter interpretation of evolutionary processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
    Citation

    Roycroft, E. J., Nations, J. A., & Rowe, K. C. (2019). Environment predicts repeated body size shifts in a recent radiation of Australian mammals. Evolution. https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.13859

  18. Shabani, F., Ahmadi, M., Peters, K. J., Haberle, S., Champreux, A., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C. J. A. (2019). Climate-driven shifts in the distribution of koala browse species from the Last Interglacial to the near future. Ecography. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04530

    Ecography
    Ecography
    Abstract

    The koala’s (Phascolarctos cinereus) distribution is currently restricted to eastern and south-eastern Australia. However‚ fossil records dating from 70 ± 4 ka (ka = 103 years) from south-western Australia and the Nullarbor Plain are evidence of subpopulation extinctions in the southwest at least after the Last Interglacial (128-116 ka). We hypothesize that koala sub-population extinctions resulted from the eastward retraction of the koala’s main browse species in response to unsuitable climatic conditions. We further posit a general reduction in the distribution of main koala-browse trees in the near future in response climate change. We modelled 60 koala-browse species and constructed a set of correlative species distribution models for five time periods: Last Interglacial (128-116 ka)‚ Last Glacial Maximum ( 23-19 ka)‚ Mid-Holocene ( 7-5 ka)‚ present (interpolations of observed data‚ representative of 1960-1990)‚ and 2070. We based our projections on five hindcasts and one forecast of climatic variables extracted from WorldClim based on two general circulation models (considering the most pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse-gas emissions) and topsoil clay fraction. We used 17 dates of koala fossil specimens identified as reliable from 70 (± 4) to 535 (± 49) ka‚ with the last appearance of koalas at 151 ka in the southwest. The main simulated koala-browse species were at their greatest modelled extent of suitability during the Last Glacial Maximum‚ with the greatest loss of koala habitat occurring between the Mid-Holocene and the present. We predict a similar habitat loss between the present and 2070. The spatial patterns of habitat change support our hypothesis that koala extinctions in the southwest‚ Nullarbor Plain‚ and central South Australia resulted from the eastward retraction of the dominant koala-browse species in response to long-term climate changes. Future climate patterns will likely increase the extinction risk of koalas in their remaining eastern ranges. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Shabani, F., Ahmadi, M., Peters, K. J., Haberle, S., Champreux, A., Saltré, F., & Bradshaw, C. J. A. (2019). Climate-driven shifts in the distribution of koala browse species from the Last Interglacial to the near future. Ecography. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04530

  19. Soanes, K., & Lentini, P. E. (2019). When cities are the last chance for saving species. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2032

    Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
    Abstract

    Urban environments are arguably among the most suitable targets for conservation science‚ as they represent opportunities to preserve both species and habitats under threat while at the same time allowing people to engage with nature. We highlight the need for conservation within urban environments using species whose recovery is entirely dependent on effective action within cities and towns. We identified 39 urban-restricted species in Australia and reviewed the advice guiding their conservation to address the question‚ “What does conservation look like when cities are the last chance for saving species?” We argue that in such circumstances securing land for conservation purposes cannot be relied upon; instead‚ species must be protected on lands not originally intended for conservation and urban communities must be involved in recovery actions. Ultimately‚ to achieve such outcomes‚ decision makers need to recognize the importance of urban ecosystems in the recovery of imperiled species.
    Citation

    Soanes, K., & Lentini, P. E. (2019). When cities are the last chance for saving species. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2032

  20. Steven, R., Barnes, M., Garnett, S. T., Garrard, G., O’Connor, J., Oliver, J. L., Robinson, C., Tulloch, A., & Fuller, R. A. (2019). Aligning citizen science with best practice: Threatened species conservation in Australia. Conservation Science and Practice. https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.100

    Conservation Science and Practice
    Abstract

    Well-designed citizen science projects can improve the capacity of the scientific community to detect and understand declines in threatened species‚ and with the emergence of frameworks to guide good design‚ there is an opportunity to test whether projects are aligned with best practice. We assessed the current landscape of citizen science projects for threatened species conservation via a content analysis of the online communique of citizen science projects across Australia. Only 2% of projects stated clear research questions‚ although approximately 86% had implied project objectives aimed at threatened species conservation. Most projects were focused on field-based monitoring activities with half using structured ecological survey methods. Most reviewed projects (65%) shared data with open access biodiversity databases and the vast majority use at least one social media platform to communicate with potential and existing participants (up to 81%). Approximately 50% present citizen-sourced data summaries or publications on their websites. Our study shows there is a very strong foundation for public participation in threatened species conservation activities in Australia‚ yet there is scope to further integrate the principles of citizen science best practice. Improved integration of these principles will likely yield better outcomes for threatened species as well as for the citizen scientists themselves.
    Citation

    Steven, R., Barnes, M., Garnett, S. T., Garrard, G., O’Connor, J., Oliver, J. L., Robinson, C., Tulloch, A., & Fuller, R. A. (2019). Aligning citizen science with best practice: Threatened species conservation in Australia. Conservation Science and Practice. https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.100

  21. Wraith, ., & Pickering, C. (2019). A continental scale analysis of threats to orchids. Biological Conservation, 234, 7–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.015

    Biological Conservation
    Abstract

    Thousands of plants are at risk of extinction globally due to human activities‚ including many species of orchids. In Australia alone there are 184 orchids identified as threatened by the Australian Government‚ but what threatens them and where are they threatened? Using data derived from listing documents for these orchids‚ threats were allocated to 28 categories. Then‚ the distributions of the orchids and hence likely geographic patterns of threats were mapped using 14‚651 location records from the Atlas of Living Australia. The most common threats were changes in fire regimes (74% of threatened Australian orchids)‚ invasive species (65%)‚ habitat modification (64%)‚ grazing (63%)‚ tourism and recreation (47%) and illegal collection (46%)‚ which often co-occurred as threat syndromes. Most threatened orchids are terrestrial (165 species)‚ and many occur in temperate forests (96) and temperate shrubland (36). When generalised linear models were used to assess geographic patterns in threats‚ bioregions with less cover of native vegetation were more likely to have orchids threatened by habitat modification‚ grazing or weeds (p < 0.05). Bioregions with higher protected area coverage were more likely to contain orchids threatened by tourism and recreation‚ but less likely to have orchids threatened by habitat modification (p < 0.05). Understanding drivers of threats and their distribution is crucial for successful management as they highlight key areas for conservation. The results also highlight the need for updating orchid listings nationally and internationally to better reflect the diversity of orchids threatened and threats to them‚ including the increasing impact of climate change.
    Citation

    Wraith, ., & Pickering, C. (2019). A continental scale analysis of threats to orchids. Biological Conservation, 234, 7–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.015

2018

  1. Braby, M. F., Franklin, D. C., Bisa, D. E., Williams, M. R., Bishop, C. L., & Coppen, R. A. M. (2018). Methods. In Atlas of Butterflies and Diurnal Moths in the Monsoon Tropics of Northern Australia. ANU Press.
    https://doi.org/10.22459/ABDM.12.2018

    Abstract

    Northern Australia is one of few tropical places left on Earth in which biodiversity—and the ecological processes underpinning that biodiversity—is still relatively intact. However‚ scientific knowledge of that biodiversity is still in its infancy and the region remains a frontier for biological discovery. The butterfly and diurnal moth assemblages of the area‚ and their
    Citation

    Braby, M. F., Franklin, D. C., Bisa, D. E., Williams, M. R., Bishop, C. L., & Coppen, R. A. M. (2018). Methods. In Atlas of Butterflies and Diurnal Moths in the Monsoon Tropics of Northern Australia. ANU Press.

  2. Mulvaney, M. (2018). Rare plants on Black Mountain Sandstone. Black Mountain Symposium 2018, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
    https://friendsofblackmountain.org.au/sites/default/files/Symposium2018/6-Mulvaney-rareplants-final-28Jun18.pdf

    Black Mountain Symposium 2018
    Abstract

    A provisional list of 317 plant species considered rare or uncommon in the ACT was refined through consideration of about 8‚750 location records. The process identified 280 species which are or may be rare in the territory‚ 34 of which occur on Black Mountain Sandstone geology‚ mainly on Black Mountain and Aranda Bushland. Twenty (59%) of the rare species are orchids‚ including seven species for which the Black Mountain Sandstone area appears to be a national stronghold. Black Mountain Sandstone is the only or one of only a few known ACT habitats of a further seven orchids. Non-orchid rare plants present on Black Mountain Sandstone tend to be at or close to a distribution limit there‚ and rare only in a local context.
    Citation

    Mulvaney, M. (2018). Rare plants on Black Mountain Sandstone. Black Mountain Symposium 2018, Canberra, ACT, Australia.

  3. Heatwole, H. (2018). Status of Conservation and Decline of Amphibians. CSIRO Publishing.
    https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7783/

    Abstract

    Amphibians are among the most threatened groups of animals on earth. In part due to their highly permeable skin‚ amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes and pollution and provide an early-warning system of deteriorating environmental conditions. The more we learn about the impact of environmental changes on amphibians‚ the better we as humans will be able to arrest their demise‚ and our own.
    Status of Conservation and Decline of Amphibians brings together the current knowledge on the status of the unique frogs of Australia‚ New Zealand‚ and the Pacific. Although geographically proximate‚ each region presents unique challenges and opportunities in amphibian research and conservation. This book contributes to an understanding of the current conservation status of the amphibians of each region‚ aims to stimulate research into halting amphibian declines‚ and provides a better foundation for making conservation decisions. It is an invaluable reference for environmental and governmental agencies‚ researchers‚ policy-makers involved with biodiversity conservation‚ and the interested public.
    Citation

    Heatwole, H. (2018). Status of Conservation and Decline of Amphibians. CSIRO Publishing.

  4. Roberts, J. D., & Edwards, D. (2018). The Evolution, Physiology and Ecology of the Australian Arid-Zone Frog Fauna. In H. Lambers (Ed.), On the Ecology of Australia’s Arid Zone (pp. 149–180). Springer International Publishing.
    https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93943-8_7

    Abstract

    The frog fauna of the Australian arid zone is diverse. Most species are independent of free-standing water except for breeding where all species have aquatic egg deposition and a conventional tadpole as the larval stage. The fauna is derived from two sources: taxa related to frog genera found across i) tropical‚ northern Australia and ii) genera from temperate‚ southern and eastern Australian. Those derivations are both recent – with some ongoing tenuous connections to tropical in north-west coastal areas‚ and ancient‚ reflecting the long term drying trend in arid Australia over the last 20 million years. Burrowing species can form waterproof cocoons‚ but also survive in moist soils. Most can reduce metabolic rates and ingest high quality foods in sufficient quantities in very short time frames to allow survival underground for many years between major rain events‚ and to allow them to be super abundant. Australian frogs do well in the arid zone!
    Citation

    Roberts, J. D., & Edwards, D. (2018). The Evolution, Physiology and Ecology of the Australian Arid-Zone Frog Fauna. In H. Lambers (Ed.), On the Ecology of Australia’s Arid Zone (pp. 149–180). Springer International Publishing.

  5. Beasley-Hall, P. G., Chui, J., Arab, D. A., & Lo, N. (2018). Evidence for a complex evolutionary history of mound building in the Australian nasute termites (Nasutitermitinae). Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/bly187

    Biological Journal of the Linnean Society
    Abstract

    Abstract. Termite mounds have intrigued humans for millennia. Despite great interest in their beautiful and often complex structures‚ the question of why termi
    Citation

    Beasley-Hall, P. G., Chui, J., Arab, D. A., & Lo, N. (2018). Evidence for a complex evolutionary history of mound building in the Australian nasute termites (Nasutitermitinae). Biological Journal of the Linnean Society. https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/bly187

  6. Beasley-Hall, P. G., Lee, .R.C., Rose, H. A., & Lo, N. (2018). Multiple abiotic factors correlate with parallel evolution in Australian soil burrowing cockroaches. Journal of Biogeography, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13233

    Journal of Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim The ways in which abiotic factors contribute to parallel evolution—the evolution of similar‚ derived phenotypes in independent‚ closely related lineages—remain understudied. Australian cockroaches of the subfamilies Panesthiinae (“wood feeders”) and Geoscapheinae (“soil burrowers”) are two closely related groups that provide a striking example of parallel evolution of burrowing behaviour. The ancestral wood-feeding panesthiines migrated from Asia 20 million years ago before soil burrowing was independently acquired multiple times in the derived geoscapheines. Here‚ we investigate whether specific abiotic factors were associated with the parallel evolution of soil burrowing behaviour‚ and whether divergence events of geoscapheines from panesthiine ancestors are consistent with niche conservatism or divergence. Location The Australian mainland‚ including the areas in which selected Australian Panesthiinae and Geoscapheinae cockroach species are distributed. Methods We generated environmental niche models for members of the Australian Geoscapheinae and Panesthiinae using presence-only data and abiotic variables related to temperature‚ precipitation‚ and soil composition from BioClim and the Australian Soil Resource Information System. We used an existing phylogenetic framework to compare environmental niche models and tested for niche conservatism versus divergence. Morphological convergence was assessed by a regression analysis and principal components analysis of leg segment and body dimensions in soil burrowers and wood feeders. Results We found no relationship between niche similarity and time since divergence‚ and only limited evidence for phylogenetic signal with respect to the environmental variables examined. We found that soil burrowing behaviour is consistently correlated with thirteen abiotic factors associated with aridity‚ including a wider range of temperatures and lower precipitation levels. Evidence for convergence in leg morphology and body dimensions across soil burrowers was found. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with soil burrowing behaviour evolving in response to ancient aridification events following the arrival of the Panesthiinae in Australia. Our results suggest a scenario of niche divergence between soil burrowers and each of their wood feeding sister taxa. There is evidence for morphological convergence on a “shovel-like” protibiotarsus in the Geoscapheinae that would aid in burrowing into soil.
    Citation

    Beasley-Hall, P. G., Lee, .R.C., Rose, H. A., & Lo, N. (2018). Multiple abiotic factors correlate with parallel evolution in Australian soil burrowing cockroaches. Journal of Biogeography, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13233

  7. Blackman, C. J., Gleason, S. M., Cook, A. M., Chang, Y., Laws, C. A., & Westoby, M. (2018). The links between leaf hydraulic vulnerability to drought and key aspects of leaf venation and xylem anatomy among 26 Australian woody angiosperms from contrasting climates. Annals of Botany. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcy051

    Annals of Botany
    Abstract

    Background and AimsThe structural properties of leaf venation and xylem anatomy strongly influence leaf hydraulics‚ including the ability of leaves to maintain hydraulic function during drought. Here we examined the strength of the links between different leaf venation traits and leaf hydraulic vulnerability to drought (expressed as P50leaf by rehydration kinetics) in a diverse group of 26 woody angiosperm species‚ representing a wide range of leaf vulnerabilities‚ from four low-nutrient sites with contrasting rainfall across eastern Australia.MethodsFor each species we measured key aspects of leaf venation design‚ xylem anatomy and leaf morphology. We also assessed for the first time the scaling relationships between hydraulically weighted vessel wall thickness (th) and lumen breadth (bh) across vein orders and habitats.Key ResultsAcross species‚ variation in P50leaf was strongly correlated with the ratio of vessel wall thickness (th) to lumen breadth (bh) [(t/b)h; an index of conduit reinforcement] at each leaf vein order. Concomitantly‚ the scaling relationship between th and bh was similar across vein orders‚ with a log–log slope less than 1 indicating greater xylem reinforcement in smaller vessels. In contrast‚ P50leaf was not related to th and bh individually‚ to major vein density (Dvmajor) or to leaf size. Principal components analysis revealed two largely orthogonal trait groupings linked to variation in leaf size and drought tolerance.ConclusionsOur results indicate that xylem conduit reinforcement occurs throughout leaf venation‚ and remains closely linked to leaf drought tolerance irrespective of leaf size.
    Citation

    Blackman, C. J., Gleason, S. M., Cook, A. M., Chang, Y., Laws, C. A., & Westoby, M. (2018). The links between leaf hydraulic vulnerability to drought and key aspects of leaf venation and xylem anatomy among 26 Australian woody angiosperms from contrasting climates. Annals of Botany. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcy051

  8. Bush, A., Catullo, R. A., Mokany, K., Thornhill, A. H., Miller, J. T., & Ferrier, S. (2018). Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 27, 22–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12637

    Global Ecology and Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim: Despite recognition that realized distributions inherently underestimate species’ physiological tolerances‚ we are yet to identify the extent of these differences within diverse taxonomic groups. The degree to which species could tolerate environmental conditions outside their observed distributions may have a significant impact on the perceived extinction risk in ecological models. More information on this potential error is required to improve our confidence in management strategies. Location: Australia. Time Period: 1983–2012. Major Taxa Studied: Plants. Methods: To quantify the scale and spatial patterns of this disparity‚ we estimated the existing tolerance to thermal extremes of 7‚124 Australian plants‚ more than one-third of the native continental flora‚ using data from cultivated records at 128 botanical gardens and nurseries. Hierarchical Bayesian beta regression was used to assess whether factors such as realized niches‚ traits or phylogeny could predict the incidence or magnitude of niche truncation (underestimation of thermal tolerances)‚ while controlling for sources of collection bias. Results: Approximately half of the cultivated species analysed could tolerate temperature extremes beyond those experienced in their native range. Niche truncation was predictable from the breadth and extremes of their realized niches and by traits such as plant growth form. Phylogenetic relationships with niche truncation were weak and appeared more suited to predicting thermal tolerances directly. Main conclusions: This study highlights a widespread disparity between realized and potential thermal limits that may have significant implications for species’ capacity to persist in situ with a changing climate. Identifying whether thermal niche truncation is the result of biotic interactions‚ dispersal constraints or other environmental factors could provide significant insight into community assembly at macroecological scales. Estimating niche truncation may help to explain why certain ecological communities are more resilient to change and may potentially improve the reliability of model projections under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
    Citation

    Bush, A., Catullo, R. A., Mokany, K., Thornhill, A. H., Miller, J. T., & Ferrier, S. (2018). Truncation of thermal tolerance niches among Australian plants. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 27, 22–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12637

  9. Cardillo, M., Dinnage, R., & McAlister, W. (2018). The relationship between environmental niche breadth and geographic range size across plant species. Journal of Biogeography. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13477

    Journal of Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim A positive association between environmental niche breadth and geographic range size across species (RS-NB association) is considered a major macroecological pattern and a key mechanism explaining differences in commonness and rarity among species. It is typically assumed that niche breadth determines range size. We explore ways in which spurious positive RS-NB associations can arise through sampling artefacts‚ in the absence of any ecological or evolutionary link between the two variables. Location Australia and Africa. Methods We used a process-based simulation model to explore the influence of spatial autocorrelation in the environment‚ and the rate of neutral range evolution‚ on the slope of the RS-NB association. We quantified niche breadth in four large plant genera (Banksia‚ Hakea‚ Protea and Moraea) using up to 12 environmental variables and accounting for variable numbers of occurrence records‚ and we tested RS-NB associations using phylogenetic generalized least-squares (PGLS) models. We compared observed patterns to two null models that break the link between species occurrences and environmental conditions in different ways. Results The simulations show that positive RS-NB associations are generated even under random diversification and neutral range evolution‚ when the environment is spatially autocorrelated. There were strong positive interspecific RS-NB associations in all four plant genera‚ but in most cases‚ PGLS slopes for the four genera were similar to those generated by the null models. After accounting for sampling effects under the two the null models by calculating the standardized effect sizes of species’ niche breadths‚ there was little evidence of general‚ positive associations between range size and niche breadth. Main Conclusions Positive RS-NB associations in our four plant genera do not necessarily result from an ecological or evolutionary link between niche breadth and range size but may largely reflect the historical legacy of speciation and limited dispersal‚ biotic interactions or other constraints on range expansion. Our results suggest that niche breadth as a general determinant of range extent among species should not be assumed without testing and correcting for spatial sampling effects.
    Citation

    Cardillo, M., Dinnage, R., & McAlister, W. (2018). The relationship between environmental niche breadth and geographic range size across plant species. Journal of Biogeography. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13477

  10. Champion, C., Hobday, A. J., Zhang, X., Pecl, G. T., & Tracey, S. R. (2018). Changing windows of opportunity: past and future climate-driven shifts in temporal persistence of kingfish (Seriola lalandi) oceanographic habitat within south-eastern Australian bioregions. Marine and Freshwater Research. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17387

    Marine and Freshwater Research
    Abstract

    Climate-driven shifts in species distributions are occurring rapidly within marine systems and are predicted to continue under climate change. To effectively adapt‚ marine resource users require information relevant to their activities at decision-making timescales. We model oceanographic habitat suitability for kingfish (Seriola lalandi) from south-eastern Australia using multiple environmental variables at monthly time steps over the period 1996–2040. Habitat predictions were used to quantify the temporal persistence (months per year) of suitable oceanographic habitat within six coastal bioregions. A decline in temporal habitat persistence is predicted for the northernmost (equatorward) bioregion‚ whereas increases are predicted for the three southernmost (poleward) bioregions. We suggest that temporal habitat persistence is an important metric for climate change adaptation because it provides fishery-relevant information. Our methods demonstrate how novel metrics relevant to climate adaptation can be derived from predictions of species’ environmental habitats‚ and are appropriate for the management of fisheries resources and protection of high conservation value species under future climate change.
    Citation

    Champion, C., Hobday, A. J., Zhang, X., Pecl, G. T., & Tracey, S. R. (2018). Changing windows of opportunity: past and future climate-driven shifts in temporal persistence of kingfish (Seriola lalandi) oceanographic habitat within south-eastern Australian bioregions. Marine and Freshwater Research. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF17387

  11. Dinnage, R., & Cardillo, M. (2018). Habitat loss is information loss: Species distribution models are compromised in anthropogenic landscapes. BioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/258038

    bioRxiv
    bioRxiv
    abstract
    Citation

    Dinnage, R., & Cardillo, M. (2018). Habitat loss is information loss: Species distribution models are compromised in anthropogenic landscapes. BioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/258038

  12. Dalrymple, R. L., Flores-Moreno, H., Kemp, D. J., White, T. E., Laffan, S. W., Hemmings, F. A., Hitchcock, T. D., & Moles, A. T. (2018). Abiotic and biotic predictors of macroecological patterns in bird and butterfly coloration. Ecological Monographs. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1287

    Ecological Monographs
    abstract
    Citation

    Dalrymple, R. L., Flores-Moreno, H., Kemp, D. J., White, T. E., Laffan, S. W., Hemmings, F. A., Hitchcock, T. D., & Moles, A. T. (2018). Abiotic and biotic predictors of macroecological patterns in bird and butterfly coloration. Ecological Monographs. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1287

  13. Dinnage, R., Simonsen, A. K., Barrett, L. G., Cardillo, M., Raisbeck‐Brown, N., Thrall, P. H., & Prober, S. M. (2018). Larger plants promote a greater diversity of symbiotic nitrogen-fixing soil bacteria associated with an Australian endemic legume. Journal of Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13083

    Journal of Ecology
    Abstract

    1.A major goal in microbial ecology is to understand the factors that structure bacterial communities across space and time. For microbes that are plant symbionts‚ community assembly processes can lead to either a positive or negative relationship between plant size or age and soil microbe diversity. Here‚ we evaluated the extent to which such relationships exist within a single legume species (Acacia acuminata) and their naturally occurring symbiotic nitrogen-fixing bacteria (rhizobia). 2.We quantified the diversity of rhizobia that associate with A. acuminata trees of variable size spanning a large environmental gradient in southwest Australia (72 trees in 24 sites spread across 300‚000 km2)‚ using metabarcoding. We modelled rhizobia diversity using 16S exact genetic variants‚ in a binomial multivariate statistical framework that controlled for climate and local soil characteristics. 3.We identified two major phylogenetic clades of rhizobia that associate with A. acuminata. Soil sampled at the base of larger Acacia trees contained a higher richness of rhizobia genetic variants. Each major clade responds differently to environmental factors (climate and soil characteristics)‚ but the positive association between tree size and rhizobia genetic diversity was mainly driven by responses from one of the two clades. Overall tree size explained more variation than any other factor‚ resulting in a 3-fold increase in total richness and clade diversity from the smallest to the largest trees. 4.Synthesis. Previous studies have shown that plant host species is important in structuring microbial soil communities in the rhizosphere. Our results show that host size or age within a single plant species can also structure diversity of at least one group of soil microbes. A positive relationship between plant host size and rhizobia diversity suggests that hosts may modify the niche space of their surrounding soil (niche construction hypothesis) enabling a higher richness of microbial taxa. That different rhizobial groups responded differently to host size and other ecological factors suggests that rhizobia is not an ecologically uniform group‚ and that entirely neutral explanations for our results are unlikely. Host plants may be analogous to ‘islands’‚ where larger plant hosts may accumulate diversity over time‚ through migration opportunities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Dinnage, R., Simonsen, A. K., Barrett, L. G., Cardillo, M., Raisbeck‐Brown, N., Thrall, P. H., & Prober, S. M. (2018). Larger plants promote a greater diversity of symbiotic nitrogen-fixing soil bacteria associated with an Australian endemic legume. Journal of Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13083

  14. Gleason, S. M., Blackman, C. J., Gleason, S. T., McCulloh, K. A., Ocheltree, T. W., & Westoby, M. (2018). Vessel scaling in evergreen angiosperm leaves conforms with Murray’s law and area‐filling assumptions: implications for plant size, leaf size and cold tolerance. New Phytologist, 218(4), 1360–1370. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15116

    New Phytologist
    Abstract

    Summary Water transport in leaf vasculature is a fundamental process affecting plant growth‚ ecological interactions and ecosystem productivity‚ yet the architecture of leaf vascular networks is poorly understood. Although Murray’s law and the West?Brown?Enquist (WBE) theories predict convergent scaling of conduit width and number‚ it is not known how conduit scaling is affected by habitat aridity or temperature. We measured the scaling of leaf size‚ conduit width and conduit number within the leaves of 36 evergreen Angiosperms spanning a large range in aridity and temperature in eastern Australia. Scaling of conduit width and number in midribs and 2° veins did not differ across species and habitats (P > 0.786)‚ and did not differ from that predicted by Murray’s law (P = 0.151). Leaf size was strongly correlated with the hydraulic radius of petiole conduits (r2 = 0.83‚ P < 0.001) and did not differ among habitats (P > 0.064)‚ nor did the scaling exponent differ significantly from that predicted by hydraulic theory (P = 0.086). The maximum radius of conduits in petioles was positively correlated with the temperature of the coldest quarter (r2 = 0.67; P < 0.001)‚ suggesting that habitat temperature restricts the occurrence of wide?conduit species in cold habitats.
    Citation

    Gleason, S. M., Blackman, C. J., Gleason, S. T., McCulloh, K. A., Ocheltree, T. W., & Westoby, M. (2018). Vessel scaling in evergreen angiosperm leaves conforms with Murray’s law and area‐filling assumptions: implications for plant size, leaf size and cold tolerance. New Phytologist, 218(4), 1360–1370. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15116

  15. Hanson, J. O., Rhodes, J. R., Possingham, H. P., & Fuller, R. A. (2018). raptr: Representative and adequate prioritization toolkit in R. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9(2), 320–330. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12862

    Methods in Ecology and Evolution
    Abstract

    An underlying aim in conservation planning is to maximize the long-term persistence of biodiversity. To fulfil this aim‚ the ecological and evolutionary processes that sustain biodiversity must be preserved. One way to conserve such processes at the feature level (e.g. species‚ ecosystem) is to preserve a sample of the feature (e.g. individuals‚ areas) that is representative of the intrinsic or extrinsic physical attributes that underpin the process of interest. For example‚ by conserving a sample of populations with local adaptations—physical attributes associated with adaptation—that is representative of the range of adaptations found in the species‚ protected areas can maintain adaptive processes by ensuring these adaptations are not lost. Despite this‚ current reserve selection methods overwhelmingly focus on securing an adequate amount of area or habitat for each feature. Little attention has been directed towards capturing a representative sample of the variation within each feature. To address this issue‚ we developed the raptr R package to help guide reserve selection. Users set “amount targets”—similar to conventional methods—to ensure that solutions secure a sufficient proportion of area or habitat for each feature. Additionally‚ users set “space targets” to secure a representative sample of variation in ecologically or evolutionarily relevant attributes (e.g. environmental or genetic variation). We demonstrate the functionality of this package‚ using simulations and two case studies. In these studies‚ we generated solutions using amount targets—similar to conventional methods—and compared them with solutions generated using amount and space targets. Our results demonstrate that markedly different solutions emerge when targeting a representative sample of each feature. We show that using these targets is important for features that have multimodal distributions in the process-related attributes (e.g. species with multimodal niches). We also found that solutions could conserve a far more representative sample with only a slight increase in reserve system size. The raptr R package provides a toolkit for making prioritizations that secure an adequate and representative sample of variation within each feature. By using solutions that secure a representative sample of each feature‚ prioritizations may have a greater chance of achieving long-term biodiversity persistence. © 2017 The Authors. Methods in Ecology and Evolution © 2017 British Ecological Society
    Citation

    Hanson, J. O., Rhodes, J. R., Possingham, H. P., & Fuller, R. A. (2018). raptr: Representative and adequate prioritization toolkit in R. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9(2), 320–330. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12862

  16. Handayani, F., Goldingay, R. L., McHugh, D., & Leslie, N. (2018). Extensive range contraction predicted under climate warming for a gliding mammal in north-eastern Australia. Australian Mammalogy. https://doi.org/10.1071/AM16062

    Australian Mammalogy
    Abstract

    We used MaxEnt to model the current distribution of the yellow-bellied glider (Petaurus australis) and to predict the likely shift in the species’ future distribution under climate-warming scenarios in the Wet Tropics (WT) Bioregion in north Queensland and in the South-eastern Queensland (SEQld) Bioregion‚ which encompasses south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. Bioclimatic layers were used to generate models from 57 independent records in the WT and 428 records in SEQld. The modelled distribution of core habitat under current climate showed a good fit to the data‚ encompassing 91% and 88% of the records in each area‚ respectively. Modelling of future warming scenarios suggests that large contractions in distribution could occur in both bioregions. In the WT‚ 98% of core habitat is predicted to be lost under low warming (1°C increase) and 100% under high warming (2−3°C increase) by 2070. In SEQld‚ 80% of core habitat is predicted to be lost under low warming and 90% under high warming by 2070. These results suggest that this species is highly vulnerable to climate warming and highlight the importance of focusing conservation efforts at the bioregional scale. There is also a need to identify potential thermal refuges and ensure habitat connectivity.
    Citation

    Handayani, F., Goldingay, R. L., McHugh, D., & Leslie, N. (2018). Extensive range contraction predicted under climate warming for a gliding mammal in north-eastern Australia. Australian Mammalogy. https://doi.org/10.1071/AM16062

  17. Hill, L. (2018). Vagrant status of lucerne seed web moth, Etiella behrii (Zeller 1848) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Tasmania. Crop Protection, 104, 65–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2017.10.016

    Crop Protection
    Abstract

    The lucerne seed web moth or etiella moth‚ Etiella behrii (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae: Phycitinae: Phycitini) has been recorded as adults and larvae across mainland Australia on leguminous plants. Suitable host plants occur in Tasmania but detections are restricted to adults‚ mostly in one long-term light trap. A combination of methods is used to determine whether this pest is a non-breeding vagrant‚ a breeding migrant or resident in Tasmania. A degree-day development model for E. behrii showed that warmer source areas outside Tasmania better explained flight seasonality observed by light trapping in Tasmania than local source areas. Pest records of 119 Lepidoptera associated with Tasmanian Medicago plants do not include Etiella. The absence of records of larvae‚ the coincidence of adults with migratory insects and northerly airflows‚ flight seasonality and a requirement for a six month non-developmental period in the cool season indicate that E. behrii migrates to Tasmania where any breeding is below detection although two generations seem possible based on thermal requirements. The results provide another example of a pest that fails to establish‚ even ephemerally‚ in Tasmania despite repeated migration from mainland Australia. The precise impediments to seasonal establishment of E. behrii remain unclear but this would most likely occur in north-west or north-east Tasmania‚ which receive most migratory moths. E. behrii is one of a suite of native Australian pests that may extend its breeding range to Tasmania with global warming. Climate matching models are prone to error if they assume E. behrii is resident in Tasmania. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
    Citation

    Hill, L. (2018). Vagrant status of lucerne seed web moth, Etiella behrii (Zeller 1848) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Tasmania. Crop Protection, 104, 65–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2017.10.016

  18. Hovenden, M. J., & Newton, P. C. D. (2018). Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses. Climatic Change, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2227-x

    Climatic Change
    Abstract

    Correctly estimating the effect of elevated CO2 (eCO2) on biomass production is paramount for accurately projecting agricultural productivity‚ global carbon balances and climate changes. Plant physiology suggests that eCO2 should result in a strongly positive CO2 fertilisation effect (CFE) via positive effects on photosynthesis and water use efficiency. However‚ the CFE in CO2 experiments is often constrained because of other factors of which rainfall pattern is particularly important. Here‚ we apply a generally applicable‚ empirically derived relationship between the CFE and an index of seasonal rainfall balance (SRB)‚ to identify how historical and projected future rainfall patterns modify the CFE using 25 native grassland sites in south-eastern (SE) Australia as a test case. We found that historical and projected rainfall produced SRBs that varied widely from year-to-year resulting in a CFE that was only positive in about 40% of years‚ with no or even negative biomass responses in the remainder of years; a finding that is in marked contrast to other studies that have not taken account of relationships between rainfall seasonality and plant responses to CO2. The dependence of the CFE on SRB also means that using the CFE from a specific eCO2 experiment can be misleading as the result will be heavily influenced by the SRB during the period of experimentation but this problem can be avoided by using a robust general relationship of the kind used in this study. Generalisations of grassland biomass responses to the rising CO2 concentration are contextual in terms of the variability in precipitation seasonality; as such‚ this provides a new lens by which to view aboveground responses to the rising CO2 concentration and fosters a novel approach for cross-site comparisons among experiments.
    Citation

    Hovenden, M. J., & Newton, P. C. D. (2018). Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses. Climatic Change, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2227-x

  19. Leiper, I., Zander, K. K., Robinson, C. J., Carwadine, J., Moggridge, B. J., & Garnett, S. T. (2018). Quantifying current and potential contributions of Australian indigenous peoples to threatened species management. Conservation Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13178

    Conservation Biology
    Abstract

    Formal engagement of indigenous peoples in conservation is increasing globally and leads to multiple benefits to communities while contributing to national and international biodiversity goals and obligations. This and ongoing declines in biodiversity have led to calls to increase opportunities for indigenous people to engage in managing their estates. However‚ there is no overarching understanding of indigenous peoples’ involvement in conservation‚ which limits the identification of new opportunities. We amalgamated information across governments and large nongovernmental organizations in the megadiverse country of Australia to quantify the involvement of indigenous people in management of threatened species. We identified 153 Australian-based projects undertaken by different indigenous groups around the nation in 2015 and 2016 that included explicit funds for management of threatened species or threatened ecosystems. Most were in remote parts of western and northern Australia. Almost one-quarter of all threatened animals and 2% of threatened plants were the subject of some formal conservation action by indigenous people. Occurrence records for 1574 threatened species showed that 823 (89.2%) of 923 species recorded on indigenous peoples’ lands were not listed in management projects. This gap may represent new opportunities for conservation initiatives. Because at least 59.5% of Australia’s threatened species occur on indigenous peoples’ lands‚ efforts to build appropriate and effective indigenous conservation alliances are vital. However‚ it is also important to recognize that threatened species are part of complex social‚ ecological‚ economic and cultural systems‚ and to achieve successful outcomes requires consideration of indigenous peoples’ priorities‚ rights‚ and obligations and relationships with their traditionally owned land and sea.
    Citation

    Leiper, I., Zander, K. K., Robinson, C. J., Carwadine, J., Moggridge, B. J., & Garnett, S. T. (2018). Quantifying current and potential contributions of Australian indigenous peoples to threatened species management. Conservation Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13178

  20. Li, X., Blackman, C. J., Choat, B., Duursma, R. A., Rymer, P. D., Medlyn, B. E., & Tissue, D. T. (2018). Tree hydraulic traits are coordinated and strongly linked to climate-of-origin across a rainfall gradient. Plant Cell and Environment, 41, 646–660. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13129

    Plant Cell and Environment
    Abstract

    Plant hydraulic traits capture the impacts of drought stress on plant function‚ yet vegetation models lack sufficient information regarding trait coordination and variation with climate-of-origin across species. Here‚ we investigated key hydraulic and carbon economy traits of 12 woody species in Australia from a broad climatic gradient‚ with the aim of identifying the coordination among these traits and the role of climate in shaping cross-species trait variation. The influence of environmental variation was minimized by a common garden approach‚ allowing us to factor out the influence of environment on phenotypic variation across species. We found that hydraulic traits (leaf turgor loss point‚ stomatal sensitivity to drought [Pgs ]‚ xylem vulnerability to cavitation [Px ]‚ and branch capacitance [Cbranch ]) were highly coordinated across species and strongly related to rainfall and aridity in the species native distributional range. In addition‚ trade-offs between drought tolerance and plant growth rate were observed across species. Collectively‚ these results provide critical insight into the coordination among hydraulic traits in modulating drought adaptation and will significantly advance our ability to predict drought vulnerability in these dominant trees species.
    Citation

    Li, X., Blackman, C. J., Choat, B., Duursma, R. A., Rymer, P. D., Medlyn, B. E., & Tissue, D. T. (2018). Tree hydraulic traits are coordinated and strongly linked to climate-of-origin across a rainfall gradient. Plant Cell and Environment, 41, 646–660. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13129

  21. Mesibov, R. (2018). An audit of some processing effects in aggregated occurrence records. ZooKeys, 751, 129–146. e9972d34-a51b-31b7-9cec-65336b704f70. https://doi.org/10.3897/zookeys.751.24791

    ZooKeys
    ZooKeys
    Abstract

    A total of ca 800‚000 occurrence records from the Australian Museum (AM)‚ Museums Victoria (MV) and the New Zealand Arthropod Collection (NZAC) were audited for changes in selected Darwin Core fields after processing by the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA; for AM and MV records) and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; for AM‚ MV and NZAC records). Formal taxon names in the genus- and species-groups were changed in 13–21% of AM and MV records‚ depending on dataset and aggregator. There was little agreement between the two aggregators on processed names‚ with names changed in two to three times as many records by one aggregator alone compared to records with names changed by both aggregators. The type status of specimen records did not change with name changes‚ resulting in confusion as to the name with which a type was associated. Data losses of up to 100% were found after processing in some fields‚ apparently due to programming errors. The taxonomic usefulness of occurrence records could be improved if aggregators included both original and the processed taxonomic data items for each record. It is recommended that end-users check original and processed records for data loss and name replacements after processing by aggregators.
    Citation

    Mesibov, R. (2018). An audit of some processing effects in aggregated occurrence records. ZooKeys, 751, 129–146. e9972d34-a51b-31b7-9cec-65336b704f70. https://doi.org/10.3897/zookeys.751.24791

  22. Morán-Ordóñez, A., Briscoe, N. J., & Wintle, B. A. (2018). Modelling species responses to extreme weather provides new insights into constraints on range and likely climate change impacts for Australian mammals. Ecography, 41, 308–320. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02850

    Ecography
    Ecography
    abstract
    Citation

    Morán-Ordóñez, A., Briscoe, N. J., & Wintle, B. A. (2018). Modelling species responses to extreme weather provides new insights into constraints on range and likely climate change impacts for Australian mammals. Ecography, 41, 308–320. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02850

  23. Neldner, V. J., Rogers, R. W., & Forster, P. I. (2018). The lichen flora of tropical Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, Australia. Australian Journal of Botany. https://doi.org/10.1071/BT17246

    Australian Journal of Botany
    Abstract

    The first account of the lichen flora of the Cape York Peninsula bioregion is provided with 423 lichen taxa from 47 families and 127 genera recorded. The tropical savannas of Cape York Peninsula‚ which experience annual or biennial ground fires‚ are generally a harsh environment for lichen establishment and growth. The majority of eucalypts and Melaleuca viridiflora Sol. ex Gaertn. trees that dominate much of Cape York Peninsula vegetation regularly shed their bark and do not generally provide a suitable habitat for lichen establishment and persistence. However‚ even in these savanna habitats‚ some tree species provide suitable fire-safe substrates for lichens. The rainforest‚ riparian and coastal vegetation lichen flora is much more diverse‚ primarily because of the lack of fire but also because of more mesic conditions and persistent thin bark types. Most of the lichens (413 lichen species) survive on a number of bark types‚ while there are 51 species on rock substrates (10 exclusively on rocks). The diverse lichen flora is dominated by pantropical species‚ many of which are shared with New Guinea‚ Thailand and the Northern Territory. However‚ eleven lichen species are only known from Cape York Peninsula.
    Citation

    Neldner, V. J., Rogers, R. W., & Forster, P. I. (2018). The lichen flora of tropical Cape York Peninsula, Queensland, Australia. Australian Journal of Botany. https://doi.org/10.1071/BT17246

  24. Ramirez-Cabral, N. Y. Z., Kumar, L., & Shabani, F. (2018). Suitable areas of Phakopsora pachyrhizi, Spodoptera exigua, and their host plant Phaseolus vulgaris are projected to reduce and shift due to climate change. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2385-9

    Theoretical and Applied Climatology
    abstract
    Citation

    Ramirez-Cabral, N. Y. Z., Kumar, L., & Shabani, F. (2018). Suitable areas of Phakopsora pachyrhizi, Spodoptera exigua, and their host plant Phaseolus vulgaris are projected to reduce and shift due to climate change. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2385-9

  25. Rossetto, M., Bragg, J., Kilian, A., McPherson, H., va der Merwe, M., & Wilson, P. D. (2018). Restore and Renew: a genomics-era framework for species provenance delimitation. Restoration Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.12898

    Restoration Ecology
    Abstract

    Here we present ‘Restore and Renew’‚ a replicable framework for gathering and interpreting evolutionary‚ ecological and genomic data in support of restoration practices. In an era of rapid climatic change and continuous widespread clearing‚ revegetation projects need to focus on producing resilient and long-term self-sustaining populations. Restore and Renew expands current knowledge of genetic provenance via genome-scan data‚ environmental niche modelling and site-specific climate information. The sampling strategy is to obtain leaf tissue representing the distributions of over 100 species commonly used in restoration. We apply Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling to genome-wide Single Nucleotide Polymorphism datasets from hundreds of samples. Species-specific local provenances are obtained using a model that represents observed patterns of genetic variation across the landscape. Climate modelling is implemented to interpret genetic provenance boundaries in the context of current and future climatic conditions at the specified site. Results are presented in an easy to use webtool (www.restore-and-renew.org.au)‚ where the user simply selects their site of interest and a target species to obtain the size and distribution of local genetic provenance. While Restore and Renew is not prescriptive it allows restoration practitioners to make informed decisions on where to source material from‚ to fulfil their restoration scenario of choice. Two examples‚ Westringia fruticosa and Acacia suaveolens‚ are presented to demonstrate how the analytical pipeline responds to different ecological and evolutionary patterns. The webtool has multiple applications for biodiversity management and will continue to evolve with new species and analytical/interpretative outputs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Rossetto, M., Bragg, J., Kilian, A., McPherson, H., va der Merwe, M., & Wilson, P. D. (2018). Restore and Renew: a genomics-era framework for species provenance delimitation. Restoration Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.12898

  26. Reside, A. E., Critchell, K., Crayn, D. M., Goosem, M., Goosem, S., Hoskin, C. . J., Sydes, T., Vanderduys, E. P., & Pressey, R. L. (2018). Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species’ fates under climate change. Ecological Applications. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1824

    Ecological Applications
    Abstract

    The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models‚ which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet‚ while model statistics can be improved by refining modelling techniques‚ gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate‚ fine-scale distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species’ model‚ using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts‚ we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modelling under- or over-estimated habitat suitability‚ under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly‚ we found that‚ while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling‚ many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore‚ the correlative models did not account for biotic factors such as disease or competitor species‚ and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species’ distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia‚ even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Reside, A. E., Critchell, K., Crayn, D. M., Goosem, M., Goosem, S., Hoskin, C. . J., Sydes, T., Vanderduys, E. P., & Pressey, R. L. (2018). Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species’ fates under climate change. Ecological Applications. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1824

  27. Sampson, J., Tapper, S., Coates, D., Hankinson, M., Mcarthur, S., & Byrne, M. (2018). Persistence with episodic range expansion from the early Pleistocene: the distribution of genetic variation in the forest tree Corymbia calophylla (Myrtaceae) in south-western Australia. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 123(3), 545–560. https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blx168

    Biological Journal of the Linnean Society
    Abstract

    Phylogeographical patterns of trees in topographically subdued‚ unglaciated landscapes are under-reported‚ and might reflect population persistence and the influences of environment and distance over historical (\textasciitilde2.6 Mya to present) and contemporary (recent generations) timescales. We examined this hypothesis using genetic analyses of four slowly evolving non-coding chloroplast sequences and 16 nuclear microsatellites in the tree Corymbia calophylla from south-western Australia‚ an area that has been unglaciated since the Permian (c. 300–250 Mya). We found strong population differentiation for chloroplast DNA and low differentiation for nuclear loci‚ consistent with higher gene flow by pollen than by seed. We identified three divergent chloroplast lineages distributed in central‚ northern and southern regions‚ and diversifying from the early (c. 3.028 Mya)‚ mid- (c. 0.793 Mya) and late (c. 0.426 Mya) Pleistocene‚ respectively. Moderate to high nucleotide diversity with population-specific haplotypes supported long-term persistence‚ but diversification of lineages provided evidence of unexpected episodic range expansion. We suggest this pattern reflects environmental influences of climatic oscillations during progressive drying of south-western Australia from the early Pleistocene. Significant tests for isolation by environment for nuclear loci also supported an influence of contemporary environmental (aridity) conditions on genetic structure‚ but isolation by distance (IBD) was greater. Significant chloroplast and nuclear IBD suggested distance was a major influence on gene flow at both timescales.
    Citation

    Sampson, J., Tapper, S., Coates, D., Hankinson, M., Mcarthur, S., & Byrne, M. (2018). Persistence with episodic range expansion from the early Pleistocene: the distribution of genetic variation in the forest tree Corymbia calophylla (Myrtaceae) in south-western Australia. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 123(3), 545–560. https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blx168

  28. Scanlan, L., McDonald, W. J. F., & Shapcott, A. (2018). Phylogenetic diversity and conservation of rainforests in the Sunshine Coast region, Queensland, Australia. Australian Journal of Botany. https://doi.org/10.1071/BT18118

    Australian Journal of Botany
    Abstract

    The subtropical rainforests of South East Queensland are relatively understudied but their importance for conservation has recently been highlighted‚ with the Sunshine Coast region identified as an area of high diversity‚ second to the Border Ranges. We measured phylogenetic diversity at a fine scale to identify areas of high diversity and dissimilarity across the Sunshine Coast‚ within the Forest of East Australia biodiversity hotspot. Edaphic and climatic influences were incorporated in the analysis to test their relevance to diversity in the region‚ and to aid the identification of local diversity hotspots. The Sunshine Coast was found to be phylogenetically even overall and had a high proportion of even sites (91 out of 109)‚ consistent with the identification of refugia at a larger scale. The Blackall Range was identified as a local centre of diversity but it has been extensively cleared. Contrary to expectation‚ coastal lowland sites were phylogenetically even‚ suggesting potential localised stability or strong connectivity to refugia. These results reiterate the high conservation value of the region in general‚ particularly for the remnant areas of rainforest on the Blackall Range.
    Citation

    Scanlan, L., McDonald, W. J. F., & Shapcott, A. (2018). Phylogenetic diversity and conservation of rainforests in the Sunshine Coast region, Queensland, Australia. Australian Journal of Botany. https://doi.org/10.1071/BT18118

  29. Selwood, K. E., McGeoch, M. A., Clarke, R. H., & Mac Nally, R. (2018). High-productivity vegetation is important for lessening bird declines during prolonged drought. Journal of Applied Ecology, 55(2), 641–650. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13052

    Journal of Applied Ecology
    Abstract

    Locations in which ecological assemblages show high resistance to climate pressures‚ such as drought‚ are likely to be important refuges for biota in changing climates. We asked whether environmental characteristics of locations were associated with the capacity of bird assemblages to withstand prolonged drought. We used a multispecies index to quantify trends in bird assemblages during a 13-year drought at >500 locations (>18‚000 surveys) in the Murray–Darling Basin‚ south-eastern Australia‚ using data from the Atlas of Australian Birds. We investigated whether the resistance of bird assemblages was associated with (1) vegetation structure; (2) vegetation productivity (vegetation greenness); (3) landscape context (patch size‚ landscape vegetation cover); or (4) physical environment (elevation‚ terrain‚ topography‚ availability of surface water). Vegetation productivity‚ measured by vegetation greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)‚ was the only potential predictor with strong evidence of an effect‚ and was positively associated with the index of drought resistance. There was little evidence that variables characterizing landscape context‚ vegetation structure or the physical environment of sites were associated with drought resistance of bird communities. Synthesis and applications. Bird assemblages in locations with high vegetation greenness are more resistant to severe drought. Prioritizing conservation investments in areas with locally high vegetation productivity is likely to be an effective strategy for increasing the resistance of bird assemblages to extreme drought‚ especially in areas where mean productivity is relatively low‚ such as arid and semi-arid regions. Remotely sensed vegetation greenness may be a promising source of information for identifying drought refuges for birds and possibly other biota. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society
    Citation

    Selwood, K. E., McGeoch, M. A., Clarke, R. H., & Mac Nally, R. (2018). High-productivity vegetation is important for lessening bird declines during prolonged drought. Journal of Applied Ecology, 55(2), 641–650. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13052

  30. Shabani, F., Kumar, L., & Ahmadi, M. (2018). Assessing Accuracy Methods of Species Distribution Models: AUC, Specificity, Sensitivity and the True Skill Statistic. The Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 18(1), 7–18.
    https://globaljournals.org/GJHSS_Volume18/2-Assessing-Accuracy-Methods.pdf

    The Global Journal of Human-Social Science
    Abstract

    We aimed to assess different methods for evaluating performance accuracy in species distribution models based on the application of five types of bioclimatic models under three threshold selections to predict the distributions of eight different species in Australia‚ treated as an independent area. Five discriminatory correlative species distribution models (SDMs)‚ were used to predict the species distributions of eight different plants. A global training data set‚ excluding the Australian locations‚ was used for model fitting. Four accuracy measurement methods were compared under three threshold selections of i) maximum sensitivity + specificity‚ ii) sensitivity = specificity and iii) predicted probability of 0.5 (default). Results showed that the choice of modeling methods had an impact on potential distribution predictions for an independent area. Examination of the four accuracy methods underexamined threshold selections demonstrated that TSS is a more realistic and practical method‚ in comparison with AUC‚ Sensitivity and Specificity. Accurate projection of the distribution of a species is extremely complex.
    Citation

    Shabani, F., Kumar, L., & Ahmadi, M. (2018). Assessing Accuracy Methods of Species Distribution Models: AUC, Specificity, Sensitivity and the True Skill Statistic. The Global Journal of Human-Social Science, 18(1), 7–18.

  31. Serra-Diaz, J. M., Enquist, B. J., Maitner, B., Merow, C., & Svenning, J.-C. (2018). Big data of tree species distributions: how big and how good? Forest Ecosystems, 4. 76dc032b-aae8-33dd-9e3f-31945fac7e37. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-017-0120-0

    Forest Ecosystems
    Abstract

    Background: Trees play crucial roles in the biosphere and societies worldwide‚ with a total of 60‚065 tree species currently identified. Increasingly‚ a large amount of data on tree species occurrences is being generated worldwide: from inventories to pressed plants. While many of these data are currently available in big databases‚ several challenges hamper their use‚ notably geolocation problems and taxonomic uncertainty. Further‚ we lack a complete picture of the data coverage and quality assessment for open/public databases of tree occurrences. Methods: We combined data from five major aggregators of occurrence data (e.g. Global Biodiversity Information Facility‚ Botanical Information and Ecological Network v.3‚ DRYFLOR‚ RAINBIO and Atlas of Living Australia) by creating a workflow to integrate‚ assess and control data quality of tree species occurrences for species distribution modeling. We further assessed the coverage - the extent of geographical data - of five economically important tree families (Arecaceae‚ Dipterocarpaceae‚ Fagaceae‚ Myrtaceae‚ Pinaceae). Results: Globally‚ we identified 49‚206 tree species (84.69% of total tree species pool) with occurrence records. The total number of occurrence records was 36.69 M‚ among which 6.40 M could be considered high quality records for species distribution modeling. The results show that Europe‚ North America and Australia have a considerable spatial coverage of tree occurrence data. Conversely‚ key biodiverse regions such as South-East Asia and central Africa and parts of the Amazon are still characterized by geographical open-public data gaps. Such gaps are also found even for economically important families of trees‚ although their overall ranges are covered. Only 15‚140 species (26.05%) had at least 20 records of high quality. Conclusions: Our geographical coverage analysis shows that a wealth of easily accessible data exist on tree species occurrences worldwide‚ but regional gaps and coordinate errors are abundant. Thus‚ assessment of tree distributions will need accurate occurrence quality control protocols and key collaborations and data aggregation‚ especially from national forest inventory programs‚ to improve the current publicly available data.
    Citation

    Serra-Diaz, J. M., Enquist, B. J., Maitner, B., Merow, C., & Svenning, J.-C. (2018). Big data of tree species distributions: how big and how good? Forest Ecosystems, 4. 76dc032b-aae8-33dd-9e3f-31945fac7e37. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-017-0120-0

  32. Szota, C., McCarthy, M. J., Sanders, G. J., Farrell, C., Fletcher, T. D., Arndt, S. K., & Livesley, S. J. (2018). Tree water-use strategies to improve stormwater retention performance of biofiltration systems Authors and affiliations. Water Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2018.07.044

    Water Research
    Abstract

    Biofiltration systems are highly valued in urban landscapes as they remove pollutants from stormwater runoff whilst contributing to a reduction in runoff volumes. Integrating trees in biofilters may improve their runoff retention performance‚ as trees have greater transpiration than commonly used sedge or herb species. High transpiration rates will rapidly deplete retained water‚ creating storage capacity prior to the next runoff event. However‚ a tree with high transpiration rates in a biofilter system will likely be frequently exposed to drought stress. Selecting appropriate tree species therefore requires an understanding of how different trees use water and how they respond to substrate drying. We selected 20 tree species and quantified evapotranspiration (ET) and drought stress (leaf water potential; Ψ) in relation to substrate water content. To compare species‚ we developed metrics which describe: (i) maximum rates of ET under well-watered conditions‚ (ii) the sensitivity of ET and (iii) the response of Ψ to declining substrate water content. Using these three metrics‚ we classified species into three groups: risky‚ balanced or conservative. Risky and balanced species showed high maximum ET‚ whereas conservative species always had low ET. As substrates dried‚ the balanced species down-regulated ET to delay the onset of drought stress; whereas risky species did not. Therefore‚ balanced species with high ET are more likely to improve the retention performance of biofiltration systems without introducing significant drought risk. This classification of tree water use strategies can be easily integrated into water balance models and improve tree species selection for biofiltration systems.
    Citation

    Szota, C., McCarthy, M. J., Sanders, G. J., Farrell, C., Fletcher, T. D., Arndt, S. K., & Livesley, S. J. (2018). Tree water-use strategies to improve stormwater retention performance of biofiltration systems Authors and affiliations. Water Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2018.07.044

  33. Williams, G., & Serena, M. (2018). Distribution of the Australian water-rat “Hydromys chrysogaster” in Victoria: Findings from community-based sightings and live-trapping surveys. Victorian Naturalist, The, 135(3), 71.
    https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=710728813708243;res=IELHSS

    Victorian Naturalist, The
    Abstract

    The distribution of Australian Water-rats in Victoria was examined by analysing 1022 records obtained from 2000-2017 and data collected incidentally in Platypus live-trapping studies. Water-rats were sighted in all Victorian river basins apart from the Lake Corangamite basin (which is dominated by saline lakes) and the very dry Mallee and Millicent basins in far western Victoria. Sightings occurred in a wide variety of habitats‚ including rivers (26% of records)‚ creeks (25%)‚ coastal habitats and estuaries (19%)‚ natural and man-made lakes and reservoirs (18.5%)‚ wetlands and morasses (7%)‚ irrigation channels (4%) and sites lacking substantial surface water in the immediate vicinity (0.5%). The mean (or average) frequency of Water-rat captures in the western half of Victoria was significantly greater than the corresponding combined values for Melbourne and eastern Victoria. Mean Water-rat capture frequency in and near Melbourne was also significantly greater than that in south-eastern Victoria.
    Citation

    Williams, G., & Serena, M. (2018). Distribution of the Australian water-rat “Hydromys chrysogaster” in Victoria: Findings from community-based sightings and live-trapping surveys. Victorian Naturalist, The, 135(3), 71.

  34. Zhang, H., Bonser, S. P., Chen, S. C., Hitchcock, T., & Moles, A. T. (2018). Is the proportion of clonal species higher at higher latitudes in Australia? Austral Ecology, 43, 69–75. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12536

    Austral Ecology
    Abstract

    We provide a large-scale quantification of the relationship between latitude and the proportion of species with clonal reproduction. Parasite pressure is thought to be higher at low latitudes‚ while abiotic stress is thought to be higher at high latitudes. We therefore predicted that there would be a higher proportion of clonal species at high latitudes than at low latitudes. We collected data of 4386 native seed plant species from 446 genera and 99 families present in ABRSFlora of Australia. Species’ occurrence records were taken from the Atlas of Living Australia‚ including 817 450 species-site combinations spanning 34.5° of latitude. Logistic regression showed that the proportion of clonal species significantly increased with latitude‚ rising from 3.3% clonal species at 9.25°S to 26.7% clonal species at 43.75°S. The overall average proportion of clonal species in Australian seed plants was 9.4%. This study adds to our growing understanding of dramatic latitudinal gradients in the way plants grow and reproduce. It also reveals that Australian vegetation contains a relatively low proportion of clonally reproducing species. © 2017 Ecological Society of Australia
    Citation

    Zhang, H., Bonser, S. P., Chen, S. C., Hitchcock, T., & Moles, A. T. (2018). Is the proportion of clonal species higher at higher latitudes in Australia? Austral Ecology, 43, 69–75. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12536

  35. Zhu, L., Bloomfield, K. J., Hocart, C. H., Egerton, J. J. G., O’Sullivan, O. S., Penillard, A., Weerasinghe, L. K., & Atkin, O. K. (2018). Plasticity of photosynthetic heat tolerance in plants adapted to thermally contrasting biomes. Plant Cell and Environment. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13133

    Plant Cell and Environment
    Abstract

    In many biomes‚ plants are subject to heatwaves‚ potentially causing irreversible damage to the photosynthetic apparatus. Field surveys have documented global‚ temperature-dependent patterns in photosynthetic heat tolerance (PHT ); however‚ it remains unclear if these patterns reflect acclimation in PHT or inherent differences among species adapted to contrasting habitats. To address these unknowns‚ we quantified seasonal variations in Tcrit (high temperature where minimal chlorophyll-a fluorescence rises rapidly‚ reflecting disruption to photosystem II) in 62 species native to 6 sites from 5 thermally contrasting biomes across Australia. Tcrit and leaf fatty acid (FA) composition (important for membrane stability) were quantified in three temperature-controlled glasshouses in 20 of those species. Tcrit was greatest at hot field sites and acclimated seasonally (summer > winter‚ increasing on average 0.34 degrees C per degrees C increase in growth temperature). The glasshouse study showed that Tcrit was inherently higher in species from warmer habitats (increasing 0.16 degrees C per degrees C increase in origin annual mean maximum temperature) and acclimated to increasing growth temperature (0.24 degrees C degrees C(-1) ). Variations in Tcrit were positively correlated with the relative abundance of saturated FAs‚ with FAs accounting for 40% of Tcrit variation. These results highlight the importance of both plastic adjustments and inherent differences determining contemporary continent-wide patterns in PHT .
    Citation

    Zhu, L., Bloomfield, K. J., Hocart, C. H., Egerton, J. J. G., O’Sullivan, O. S., Penillard, A., Weerasinghe, L. K., & Atkin, O. K. (2018). Plasticity of photosynthetic heat tolerance in plants adapted to thermally contrasting biomes. Plant Cell and Environment. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.13133

2017

  1. Friedel, M. H. (2017). Uninvited guests: how some weeds of arid Australia arrived as stowaways and became widespread. Proceedings of the Australian Rangeland Society 19th Biennial Conference. 19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society, Australia.
    https://www.austrangesoc.com.au/data/ARSC2017/2017_Conference_Papers/Friedel_Paper_23.pdf

    19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society
    abstract
    Citation

    Friedel, M. H. (2017). Uninvited guests: how some weeds of arid Australia arrived as stowaways and became widespread. Proceedings of the Australian Rangeland Society 19th Biennial Conference. 19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society, Australia.

  2. Low-Choy, S., & Huijbers, C. (2017). Experimenting with Modelling via a Virtual Laboratory: Evaluating pseudo-absence strategies to refine a species distribution model. 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
    https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2017.g8.lowchoy

    22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
    Abstract

    Virtual laboratories (VLs) are fast becoming realities in many fields of enquiry. For instance‚ the
    Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL) provides users with a high-performance computational
    platform to enable more efficient investigation of biological systems. This kind of VL is more than
    a mere portal to dispersed data sources and a diverse range of modelling options; it also reduces computational
    overheads and tedium required to implement models. In this way‚ a VL allows users to explore each model to
    more fully apply scientific method in model development. Here we explore how the BCCVL can be used to
    support an iterative process of investigating and refining models‚ through experimentation.
    The BCCVL supports many kinds of modelling for biodiversity‚ measured by species presence‚ traits or aggregate
    measures such as species richness. Here we narrow our focus to consider species distribution modelling
    (SDM)‚ and in particular‚ the source of absence data. Absences in SDM provide a useful case study
    for exploring models in VLs‚ as there are many potential settings‚ known to substantially impact SDM results.
    When absence of the species has not been explicitly recorded‚ several strategies are available to impute
    ‘pseudo-absences’. New users may inadvertently specify pseudo-absences in a way that leads to issues such as
    ‘naughty noughts’ or pseudo-replication. It is possible to identify those issues during SDM‚ and this process
    can be accelerated through a VL. Additionally after initial exploration in a VL‚ it is easy to export data for
    analysis into a statistical package‚ such as R‚ and continue to refine SDMs.
    Here we show how the SDM for the Golden bowerbird is sensitive to the strategy for generating pseudoabsences‚
    as defined by settings that can be altered within the BCCVL. A sequence of well-defined experiments
    gradually helps refine the options defining this strategy. We begin with the study region‚ which implicitly delimits
    search effort‚ and potentially defined by: the continent‚ a bioregion or a convex hull delimited by the
    farthest occurrences. At the same time BCCVL makes it easy to compare SDM algorithms. We consider
    regression (GLM)‚ tree (CTA) and machine learning (MaxEnt) algorithms. Next we undertake separate experiments
    to further refine selection of pseudo-absences. The sampling strategy may be: completely random;
    constrained by a disc centred at occurrences; or defined by a Surface Range Envelope‚ comprising locations
    that fall outside the usual range of predictors evaluated at occurrences. In comparison to the number of occurrences‚
    the intensity of pseudo-absences may be set to be equal or any other ratio. We export model results for
    out-of-VL analysis‚ and apply recursive partitioning trees in R to investigate naughty noughts.
    The Golden bowerbird is similar to many specialist species in Australia: generating pseudo-absences across
    the continent gave a large contrast between occurrence and absence‚ as evidenced by the distribution of predicted
    probability of presences. Constraining pseudo-absences to a bioregion‚ we were able to choose an SDM
    algorithm that permitted examination of gradients from absence to presence‚ whilst retaining high accuracy.
    Further experimentation assessed sensitivity to the sampling strategy of pseudo-absences‚ with a good option
    being a 10:1 sampling ratio at least 10km from occurrences. Exporting these pseudo-absences to R‚ tree modelling
    identified uninhabited climates (with high mean temperature of the warmest quarter). When omitted‚
    the estimates of climate effects on this species’ presence were greatly sharpened. This demonstrates how a VL
    may be used to refine modelling‚ evaluating sensitivity to settings via performance measures relevant at each
    stage. In this case the choice of pseudo-absence strategy to support SDM for the Golden bowerbird might have
    been discarded using a ‘one-off’ modelling approach that focussed on a single indicator.
    Citation

    Low-Choy, S., & Huijbers, C. (2017). Experimenting with Modelling via a Virtual Laboratory: Evaluating pseudo-absence strategies to refine a species distribution model. 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.

  3. Booth, T. H. (2017). Impacts of climate change on eucalypt distributions in Australia: an examination of a recent study. Australian Forestry, 80, 208–215. https://doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2017.1365402

    Australian Forestry
    Abstract

    A recent study examined the possible impacts of climate change on 657 Australian eucalypt species in the period to 2085 using species distribution modelling (SDM). The study predicted that ‘within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%)’. The purpose of the present paper is to demonstrate some of the strengths and weaknesses of this previous study. Its main strength is that it identifies relatively hot and dry areas of species distributions that may be vulnerable under climate change. Its main weakness is that the individual analyses tend to overestimate the areas of species natural distributions. Consequently‚ the predicted percentage losses of species distribution areas are unreliable. To illustrate the problem the freely available Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) is used examine two contrasting species (Eucalyptus diversicolor and E. nitens) in detail‚ so readers will be able to apply similar methods to any eucalypt species of interest. For well-known species a more reliable assessment of likely losses of distributional area under climate change may be obtained by applying the results of the SDM analysis‚ but assuming that ALA occurrences within 25 km x 25 km areas are an accurate representation of present natural distributions. Using this approach the estimated loss of area of natural distribution by 2085 for both E. diversicolor and E. nitens are less than half the estimates provided by the original paper. For lesser-known species‚ it is concluded that an additional SDM analysis is required to provide a closer representation of species natural distributions‚ to which the original SDM climate change results‚ which attempt to capture some of the species adaptability/plasticity‚ could be applied. © 2017 Institute of Foresters of Australia (IFA).
    Citation

    Booth, T. H. (2017). Impacts of climate change on eucalypt distributions in Australia: an examination of a recent study. Australian Forestry, 80, 208–215. https://doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2017.1365402

  4. Booth, T. H., Jovanovic, T., & Arnold, R. J. (2017). Planting domains under climate change for Eucalyptus pellita and Eucalyptus urograndis in parts of China and South East Asia. Australian Forestry, 80, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2016.1275101

    Australian Forestry
    Abstract

    A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on planting domains is presented for Eucalyptus pellita and the E. urophylla x E. grandis hybrid in parts of China and south-east Asia. Simple descriptions of climatic requirements are verified and‚ where necessary‚ refined. Climate data for current conditions and projected temperature rises of 1.10‚ 1.96 and 3.83 degrees C (means across the study area compared against a 1986-2005 baseline) are then used to map at a 10-minute (about 18 km) resolution areas that are likely to have suitable climatic conditions for growing these species in the future. For E. pellita a 1.10 degrees C temperature rise has little impact on climatically suitable areas‚ while E. urophylla x E. grandis may lose some currently suitable areas in southern China and Sumatra. If temperatures rise by more than 2 degrees C‚ then larger currently suitable areas will fall outside the range of climatic conditions that are known to be suitable for the two taxa. The vulnerabilities of eucalypt plantations of the two taxa across the study region are generally low‚ as the short rotation lengths used should allow managers to adapt plantations relatively easily to changing conditions. While this preliminary analysis suggested climate change risks are manageable‚ the analysis highlighted two risks that are worthy of more detailed research: some existing E. urophylla x E. grandis plantations in lowland areas in Sumatra appear to experience similar climatic conditions to those where leaf diseases have been experienced in Brazil‚ and extreme frost risks exist in inland areas of southern China.
    Citation

    Booth, T. H., Jovanovic, T., & Arnold, R. J. (2017). Planting domains under climate change for Eucalyptus pellita and Eucalyptus urograndis in parts of China and South East Asia. Australian Forestry, 80, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1080/00049158.2016.1275101

  5. Bui, E. N., Thornhill, A. H., Gonzalez-Orozco, C. E., Knerr, N., & Miller, J. T. (2017). Climate and geochemistry as drivers of eucalypt diversification in Australia. Geobiology, 15, 427–440. https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12235

    Geobiology
    Geobiology
    Abstract

    Eucalypts cover most of Australia. Here‚ we investigate the relative contribution of climate and geochemistry to the distribution and diversity of eucalypts. Using geostatistics‚ we estimate major element concentrations‚ pH‚ and electrical conductivity at sites where eucalypts have been recorded. We compare the median predicted geochemistry and reported substrate for individual species that appear associated with extreme conditions; this provides a partial evaluation of the predictions. We generate a site-by-species matrix by aggregating observations to the centroids of 100-km-wide grid cells‚ calculate diversity indices‚ and use numerical ecology methods (ordination‚ variation partitioning) to investigate the ecology of eucalypts and their response to climatic and geochemical gradients. We find that -diversity coincides with variations in climatic and geochemical patterns. Climate and geochemistry together account for less than half of the variation in eucalypt species assemblages across Australia but for greater than 80% in areas of high species richness. Climate is more important than geochemistry in explaining eucalypts species distribution and change in assemblages across Australia as a whole but there are correlations between the two sets of environmental variables. Many individual eucalypt species and entire taxonomic sections (Aromatica‚ Longistylus of subgenus Eucalyptus‚ Dumaria‚ and Liberivalvae of subgenus Symphyomyrtus) have distributions affected strongly by geochemistry. We conclude that eucalypt diversity is driven by steep geochemical gradients that have arisen as climate patterns have fluctuated over Australia over the Cenozoic‚ generally aridifying since the Miocene. The diversification of eucalypts across Australia is thus an excellent example of co-evolution of landscapes and biota in space and time and challenges accepted notions of macroecology.
    Citation

    Bui, E. N., Thornhill, A. H., Gonzalez-Orozco, C. E., Knerr, N., & Miller, J. T. (2017). Climate and geochemistry as drivers of eucalypt diversification in Australia. Geobiology, 15, 427–440. https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.12235

  6. Bustos-Segura, C., Dillon, S., Keszei, A., Foley, W. J., & Külheim, C. (2017). Intraspecific diversity of terpenes of Eucalyptus camaldulensis (Myrtaceae) at a continental scale. Australian Journal of Botany, 65, 257–269. https://doi.org/10.1071/BT16183

    Australian Journal of Botany
    Abstract

    Plants show a high degree of intraspecific variation in several traits including plant secondary metabolites. This variation can be influenced by genetic and environmental factors that result in geographical structure in their distribution. By growing plants from several populations in a controlled environment‚ we studied variation in foliar terpenes in Eucalyptus camaldulensis‚ which is the widest distributed eucalypt‚ with a large range both latitudinally and longitudinally. We found that the concentration of terpenes is highly variable among subspecies. We identified four chemotypes dominated by 1‚8-cineole‚ γ-terpinene‚ α-A nd β-phellandrene. While the 1‚8-cineole chemotype is abundant in all populations‚ the other three chemotypes are rare in the central area and the north-east of Australia. The γ-terpinene chemotype is mainly restricted to the north and west of Australia‚ whereas the α-A nd β-phellandrene chemotypes show an opposite distribution in the north and south of the continent. The annual mean temperature and humidity of the source populations correlate with the abundance of the dominant terpenes. We also tested the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations on the terpene concentration and found that elevated CO2 atmosphere reduces the overall accumulation of foliar terpenes. The results suggest that variation in terpene composition in E. camaldulensis can be influenced by environmental variables‚ mainly favouring the 1‚8-cineole chemotype in arid locations. © 2017 CSIRO.
    Citation

    Bustos-Segura, C., Dillon, S., Keszei, A., Foley, W. J., & Külheim, C. (2017). Intraspecific diversity of terpenes of Eucalyptus camaldulensis (Myrtaceae) at a continental scale. Australian Journal of Botany, 65, 257–269. https://doi.org/10.1071/BT16183

  7. Byrne, M., Millar, M. A., Coates, D. J., Macdonald, B. M., McArthur, S. M., Zhou, M., & van Leeuwen, S. (2017). Refining expectations for environmental characteristics of refugia: two ranges of differing elevation and topographical complexity are mesic refugia in an arid landscape. Journal of Biogeography, 44, 2539–2550. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13057

    Journal of Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim: Topographically complex areas are hypothesized to be mesic refugia in arid environments during periods of climatic change. We tested the hypothesis that an elevated and topographically complex range has been a historical refugium in an arid environment during Pleistocene climatic oscillations for a widespread eucalypt.
    Location: Pilbara region‚ north-west Australia.
    Methods: We evaluated genetic diversity and differentiation in chloroplast and nuclear genomes using microsatellite loci in 20 populations of Eucalyptus leucophloia from across the distribution in the Pilbara bioregion‚ including two ranges with differing topographical complexity and elevation. We evaluated phylogeographical structure using Permut and Network analysis‚ and assessed genetic structure using principle coordinate (PCoA) and Bayesian analyses.
    Results: We found moderate levels of genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation among populations‚ typical of widespread eucalypts. There was no evidence of genetic structure across the sampled range. Populations in both the Hamersley and Chichester ranges showed higher levels of chloroplast haplotype and nuclear diversity than those in surrounding areas. Diversity was negatively correlated with evapotranspiration‚ and positively correlated with precipitation.
    Main conclusions: Genetic signals of high diversity and low differentiation indicated population persistence throughout historical climate change in ranges‚ with a signal of expansion in surrounding areas. Our analysis was consistent with the hypothesis of the elevated‚ topographically complex Hamersley Range acting as a refugium‚ but revealed an unexpected result of the lower elevation‚ less rugged Chichester Range also being a refugium. Our results suggest refinement to expectations of environmental characteristics that facilitate persistence‚ where thresholds of mesic environments for refugia may be lower than expected and moisture availability may be an important contributory aspect of elevation and topographical complexity. In contrast to patterns in reptile species‚ lack of genetic structure associated with geological substrate and geomorphological features indicates dispersal is not impeded by these landscape features for this widespread eucalypt.
    Citation

    Byrne, M., Millar, M. A., Coates, D. J., Macdonald, B. M., McArthur, S. M., Zhou, M., & van Leeuwen, S. (2017). Refining expectations for environmental characteristics of refugia: two ranges of differing elevation and topographical complexity are mesic refugia in an arid landscape. Journal of Biogeography, 44, 2539–2550. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13057

  8. Chen, S. C., Cornwell, W. K., Zhang, H. X., & Moles, A. T. (2017). Plants show more flesh in the tropics: variation in fruit type along latitudinal and climatic gradients. Ecography, 40, 531–538. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02010

    Ecography
    Ecography
    Abstract

    Fruit type has a major impact on seed dispersal‚ seed predation and energy allocation‚ but our understanding of large-scale patterns in fruit type variation is weak. We used a dataset of 4008 Australian species to provide the first continental-scale tests of a series of hypotheses about the factors that might affect fruit type. We found a significant latitudinal gradient in the proportion of Fleshy-fruited species‚ with the percentage of fleshy-fruited species rising from 19% at 43.75 degrees S to 49% at 9.25 degrees S. Species bearing fleshy fruits were more frequent on the coastal fringes of Australia‚ while species bearing non-fleshy fruits became more frequent toward the arid centre. Wet‚ warm and stable climates favoured fleshy-fruited species‚ with the two best predictors of the proportion of fleshy-fruited species being maximum precipitation over five days (R-2 = 0.40)‚ and precipitation in the wettest month (R-2 = 0.25). These results remained consistent after accounting for phylogenetic correlation among species. A combined model including variables of precipitation‚ temperature‚ and climatic variation explained 67% of the variation in the proportion of fleshy-fruited species. Our results are consistent with the idea that plant reproductive strategies are more often tied to conditions during the parts of the year in which they grow than to conditions during the harsh parts of the year. Overall‚ our findings demonstrate strong relationships between plant reproductive traits and environmental gradients‚ and improve our understanding of the factors that shape large-scale patterns in plant ecological strategies.
    Citation

    Chen, S. C., Cornwell, W. K., Zhang, H. X., & Moles, A. T. (2017). Plants show more flesh in the tropics: variation in fruit type along latitudinal and climatic gradients. Ecography, 40, 531–538. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02010

  9. Coops, N. C., Rickbeil, G. J. M., Bolton, D. K., Andrew, M. E., & Brouwers, N. C. (2017). Disentangling vegetation and climate as drivers of Australian vertebrate richness. Ecography. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02813

    Ecography
    Ecography
    abstract
    Citation

    Coops, N. C., Rickbeil, G. J. M., Bolton, D. K., Andrew, M. E., & Brouwers, N. C. (2017). Disentangling vegetation and climate as drivers of Australian vertebrate richness. Ecography. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02813

  10. Daniels, G. (2017). Australian species of Ommatius Wiedemann (Diptera: Asilidae) with an anepimeral bristle. Zootaxa, 4231, 535–563. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.4231.4.3

    Zootaxa
    Zootaxa
    Abstract

    The presence of an anepimeral bristle in Australian Ommatius Wiedemann species is newly recorded and descriptions of seven new species possessing this character are presented: O. aquilonaris sp. nov.‚ O. burwelli sp. nov.‚ O. imaginis sp. nov.‚ O. limbatus sp. nov.‚ O. melasmus sp. nov.‚ O. musselbrookensis sp. nov. and O. radamnis sp. nov. All species occur in Queensland but O. melasmus sp. nov. also occurs in New South Wales and O. musselbrookensis sp. nov. also occurs in the Northern Territory. A key to separate the species is presented. © 2017 Magnolia Press.
    Citation

    Daniels, G. (2017). Australian species of Ommatius Wiedemann (Diptera: Asilidae) with an anepimeral bristle. Zootaxa, 4231, 535–563. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.4231.4.3

  11. Entwisle, T. J., Cole, C., & Symes, P. (2017). Adapting the botanical landscape of Melbourne Gardens (Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria) in response to climate change. Plant Diversity, 39, 338–347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pld.2017.11.001

    Plant Diversity
    abstract
    Citation

    Entwisle, T. J., Cole, C., & Symes, P. (2017). Adapting the botanical landscape of Melbourne Gardens (Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria) in response to climate change. Plant Diversity, 39, 338–347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pld.2017.11.001

  12. Farrell, C., Szota, C., & Arndt, S. K. (2017). Does the turgor loss point characterize drought response in dryland plants? Plant Cell and Environment, 40, 1500–1511. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.12948

    Plant Cell and Environment
    Abstract

    The water potential at turgor loss point (Ψtlp) has been suggested as a key functional trait for determining plant drought tolerance‚ because of its close relationship with stomatal closure. Ψtlp may indicate drought tolerance as plants‚ which maintain gas exchange at lower midday water potentials as soil water availability declines also have lower Ψtlp. We evaluated 17 species from seasonally dry habitats‚ representing a range of life-forms‚ under well-watered and drought conditions‚ to determine how Ψtlp relates to stomatal sensitivity (pre-dawn water potential at stomatal closure: Ψgs0) and drought strategy (degree of isohydry or anisohydry; ΔΨMD between well-watered conditions and stomatal closure). Although Ψgs0 was related to Ψtlp‚ Ψgs0 was better related to drought strategy (ΔΨMD). Drought avoiders (isohydric) closed stomata at water potentials higher than their Ψtlp; whereas‚ drought tolerant (anisohydric) species maintained stomatal conductance at lower water potentials than their Ψtlp and were more dehydration tolerant. There was no significant relationship between Ψtlp and ΔΨMD. While Ψtlp has been related to biome water availability‚ we found that Ψtlp did not relate strongly to stomatal closure or drought strategy‚ for either drought avoiders or tolerators. We therefore suggest caution in using Ψtlp to predict vulnerability to drought. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
    Citation

    Farrell, C., Szota, C., & Arndt, S. K. (2017). Does the turgor loss point characterize drought response in dryland plants? Plant Cell and Environment, 40, 1500–1511. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.12948

  13. Flores-Renteria, L., Rymer, P. D., & Riegler, M. (2017). Unpacking boxes: Integration of molecular, morphological and ecological approaches reveals extensive patterns of reticulate evolution in box eucalypts. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 108, 70–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ympev.2017.01.019

    Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution
    Abstract

    Reticulate evolution by hybridization is considered a common process shaping the evolution of many plant species‚ however‚ reticulation could also be due to incomplete lineage sorting in biodiverse systems. For our study we selected a group of closely related plant taxa with contrasting yet partially overlapping geographic distributions and different population sizes‚ to distinguish between reticulated patterns due to hybridization and incomplete lineage sorting. We predicted that sympatric or proximal populations of different species are more likely to have gene flow than geographically distant populations of the same widespread species. Furthermore‚ for species with restricted distributions‚ and therefore‚ small effective population sizes‚ we predicted complete lineage sorting. Eastern grey box eucalypt species (Eucalyptus supraspecies Moluccanae) provide an ideal system to explore patterns of reticulate evolution. They form a diverse‚ recently evolved and phylogenetically undefined group within Eucalyptus‚ with overlapping morphological features and hybridization in nature. We used a multi-faceted approach‚ combining analyses of chloroplast and nuclear DNA‚ as well as seedling morphology‚ flowering time and ecological spatial differentiation in order to test for species delimitation and reticulate evolution in this group. The multiple layers of results were consistent and suggested a lack of monophyly at different hierarchical levels due to multidirectional gene flow among several species‚ challenging species delimitation. Chloroplast and nuclear haplotypes were shared among different species in geographic proximity‚ consistent with hybridization zones. Furthermore‚ species with restricted distributions appeared better resolved due to lineage sorting in the absence of hybridization. We conclude that a combination of molecular‚ morphological and ecological approaches is required to disentangle patterns of reticulate evolution in the box eucalypts.
    Citation

    Flores-Renteria, L., Rymer, P. D., & Riegler, M. (2017). Unpacking boxes: Integration of molecular, morphological and ecological approaches reveals extensive patterns of reticulate evolution in box eucalypts. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 108, 70–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ympev.2017.01.019

  14. Froese, J. G., Smith, C. S., Durr, P. A., McAlpine, C. A., & van Klinken, R. D. (2017). Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia. PLoS ONE, 12, e0177018. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0177018

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental‚ human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet‚ model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs‚ a widespread and harmful invader‚ in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based‚ spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions‚ breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured‚ iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs’ resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons‚ retracting to resource-abundant rainforest‚ wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains‚ savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall‚ our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts‚ assess risks‚ justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species‚ especially in data-poor situations.
    Citation

    Froese, J. G., Smith, C. S., Durr, P. A., McAlpine, C. A., & van Klinken, R. D. (2017). Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia. PLoS ONE, 12, e0177018. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0177018

  15. García-Navas, V., Rodríguez-Rey, M., & Christidis, L. (2017). Ecological opportunity and ecomorphological convergence in Australasian robins (Petroicidae). Journal of Avian Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/jav.01552

    Journal of Avian Biology
    abstract
    Citation

    García-Navas, V., Rodríguez-Rey, M., & Christidis, L. (2017). Ecological opportunity and ecomorphological convergence in Australasian robins (Petroicidae). Journal of Avian Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/jav.01552

  16. Hageer, Y., Esperon-Rodriguez, M., Baumgartner, J. B., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Climate, soil or both? Which variables are better predictors of the distributions of Australian shrub species? PeerJ, 5, e3446. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.3446

    PeerJ
    PeerJ
    Abstract

    BACKGROUND: Shrubs play a key role in biogeochemical cycles‚ prevent soil and water erosion‚ provide forage for livestock‚ and are a source of food‚ wood and non-wood products. However‚ despite their ecological and societal importance‚ the influence of different environmental variables on shrub distributions remains unclear. We evaluated the influence of climate and soil characteristics‚ and whether including soil variables improved the performance of a species distribution model (SDM)‚ Maxent. METHODS: This study assessed variation in predictions of environmental suitability for 29 Australian shrub species (representing dominant members of six shrubland classes) due to the use of alternative sets of predictor variables. Models were calibrated with (1) climate variables only‚ (2) climate and soil variables‚ and (3) soil variables only. RESULTS: The predictive power of SDMs differed substantially across species‚ but generally models calibrated with both climate and soil data performed better than those calibrated only with climate variables. Models calibrated solely with soil variables were the least accurate. We found regional differences in potential shrub species richness across Australia due to the use of different sets of variables. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that predicted patterns of species richness may be sensitive to the choice of predictor set when multiple‚ plausible alternatives exist‚ and demonstrates the importance of considering soil properties when modeling availability of habitat for plants.
    Citation

    Hageer, Y., Esperon-Rodriguez, M., Baumgartner, J. B., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Climate, soil or both? Which variables are better predictors of the distributions of Australian shrub species? PeerJ, 5, e3446. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.3446

  17. Haque, M. M., Nipperess, D. A., Gallagher, R. V., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). How well documented is Australia’s flora? Understanding spatial bias in vouchered plant specimens. Austral Ecology, 42, 690–699. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12487

    Austral Ecology
    abstract
    Citation

    Haque, M. M., Nipperess, D. A., Gallagher, R. V., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). How well documented is Australia’s flora? Understanding spatial bias in vouchered plant specimens. Austral Ecology, 42, 690–699. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12487

  18. Harris, R. M. B., Kriticos, D. J., Remenyi, T., & Bindoff, N. (2017). Unusual suspects in the usual places: a phylo-climatic framework to identify potential future invasive species. Biological Invasions, 19, 577–596. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-016-1334-8

    Biological Invasions
    Abstract

    A framework for identifying species that may become invasive under future climate conditions is presented‚ based on invader attributes and biogeography in combination with projections of future climate. We illustrate the framework using the CLIMEX niche model to identify future climate suitability for three species of Hawkweed that are currently present in the Australian Alps region and related species that are present in the neighbouring region. Potential source regions under future climate conditions are identified‚ and species from those emerging risk areas are identified. We use dynamically downscaled climate projections to complement global analyses and provide fine-scale projections of suitable climate for current and future (2070-2099) conditions at the regional scale. Changing climatic conditions may reduce the suitability for some invasive species and improve it for others. Invasive species with distributions strongly determined by climate‚ where the projected future climate is highly suitable‚ are those with the greatest potential to be future invasive species in the region. As the Alps region becomes warmer and drier‚ many more regions of the world become potential sources of invasive species‚ although only one additional species of Hawkweed is identified as an emerging risk. However‚ in the longer term‚ as the species in these areas respond to global climate change‚ the potential source areas contract again to match higher altitude regions. Knowledge of future climate suitability‚ based on species-specific climatic tolerances‚ is a useful step towards prioritising management responses such as targeted eradication and early intervention to prevent the spread of future invasive species.
    Citation

    Harris, R. M. B., Kriticos, D. J., Remenyi, T., & Bindoff, N. (2017). Unusual suspects in the usual places: a phylo-climatic framework to identify potential future invasive species. Biological Invasions, 19, 577–596. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-016-1334-8

  19. Hill, L. (2017). Migration of green mirid, Creontiades dilutus (Stål) and residence of potato bug, Closterotomus norwegicus (Gmelin) in Tasmania (Hemiptera: Miridae: Mirinae: Mirini). Crop Protection, 96, 211–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2017.02.006

    Crop Protection
    Abstract

    Adults but not nymphs of green mirid‚ Creontiades dilutus (Stål) (Hemiptera: Miridae) are sometimes detected in Tasmania. The species has been recorded‚ as adults at least‚ from a wide range of habitats‚ localities and plants in mainland Australia and suitable host plants occur in Tasmania. Most Tasmanian detections of C. dilutus have been in a long-term light trap and coincide with movements of known long-distance migratory insects and airflows favourable for migration across Bass Strait. In contrast adults and juveniles of the potato bug Closterotomus norwegicus (Gmelin) (Hemiptera: Miridae) are collected regularly in crops for which details are given. A published degree-day development model for C. dilutus was used to identify several impediments to fecundity‚ egg and juvenile survival and adult maturation such that even ephemeral seasonal establishment is highly unlikely. The absence of juveniles‚ coincidence of adults with migratory insects and northerly airflows and modelled obstacles to breeding in combination indicate that C. dilutus migrates to Tasmania. The results provide another example of a pest that fails to establish‚ even ephemerally‚ in Tasmania despite repeated migration from mainland Australia. Publications stating that the distribution of C. dilutus includes Tasmania are based only on captures of migratory adults. Climate matching models are prone to error if they assume C. dilutus is resident in Tasmania. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
    Citation

    Hill, L. (2017). Migration of green mirid, Creontiades dilutus (Stål) and residence of potato bug, Closterotomus norwegicus (Gmelin) in Tasmania (Hemiptera: Miridae: Mirinae: Mirini). Crop Protection, 96, 211–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cropro.2017.02.006

  20. Hirsch, H., Gallien, L., Impson, F. A. C., Kleinjan, C., Richardson, D. M., & Le Roux, J. J. (2017). Unresolved native range taxonomy complicates inferences in invasion ecology: Acacia dealbata Link as an example. Biological Invasions, 19, 1715–1722. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-017-1381-9

    Biological Invasions
    Abstract

    Elaborate and expensive endeavours are underway worldwide to understand and manage biological invasions. However‚ the success of such efforts can be jeopardised due to taxonomic uncertainty. We highlight how unresolved native range taxonomy can complicate inferences in invasion ecology using the invasive tree Acacia dealbata in South Africa as an example. Acacia dealbata is thought to comprise two subspecies based on morphological characteristics and environmental requirements within its native range in Australia: ssp. dealbata and spp. subalpina. Biological control is the most promising option for managing invasive A. dealbata populations in South Africa‚ but it remains unknown which genetic/taxonomic entities are present in the country. Resolving this question is crucial for selecting appropriate biological control agents and for identifying areas with the highest invasion risk. We used species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogeographic approaches to address this issue. The ability of subspecies-specific and overall species SDMs to predict occurrences in South Africa was also explored. Furthermore‚ as non-overlapping bioclimatic niches between the two taxonomic entities may translate into evolutionary distinctiveness‚ we also tested genetic distances between the entities using DNA sequencing data and network analysis. Both approaches were unable to differentiate the two putative subspecies of A. dealbata. However‚ the SDM approach revealed a potential niche shift in the non-native range‚ and DNA sequencing results suggested repeated introductions of different native provenances into South Africa. Our findings provide important information for ongoing biological control attempts and highlight the importance of resolving taxonomic uncertainties in invasion ecology.
    Citation

    Hirsch, H., Gallien, L., Impson, F. A. C., Kleinjan, C., Richardson, D. M., & Le Roux, J. J. (2017). Unresolved native range taxonomy complicates inferences in invasion ecology: Acacia dealbata Link as an example. Biological Invasions, 19, 1715–1722. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-017-1381-9

  21. Hossain, M. M. (2017). Accounting for biodiversity in Australia The case of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. Pacific Accounting Review, 29, 2–33. https://doi.org/10.1108/Par-03-2016-0033

    Pacific Accounting Review
    Abstract

    Purpose -This paper aims to respond to recent calls by Jones (2014) and Jones and Solomon (Accounting‚ Auditing & Accountability Journal‚ 2013) for more studies on biodiversity accounting and reporting. In particular‚ this paper explores biodiversity reporting of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA)‚ an Australian public sector enterprise.
    Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses content analysis of MDBA’s published annual reports over the period of 15 years (1998-2012). Archival data (from different government departments) are also used to prepare natural inventory model.
    Findings -The paper finds that although specific species‚ such as flora and fauna‚ and habitats-related disclosures have increased over the time‚ such information still allows only a partial construction of an inventory of natural assets‚ using Jones’ (1996‚ 2003) model. However‚ unlike prior studies that find lack of data availability to be the main impediment for operationalising biodiversity accounting‚ the abundance of biodiversity data in Australia makes it comparatively easier to produce such a statement.
    Research limitations/implications - Informed by the environmental stewardship framework‚ the results of this paper suggest that the disclosures made by MDBA are constrained potentially due to its use of traditional accounting mechanisms of reporting that only allow tradable items to be reported to stakeholders. An alternative reporting format would be more relevant to stakeholder groups who are more interested in information regarding quality and availability of water‚ and loss of biodiversity in the basin area rather than the financial performance of the MDBA.
    Originality/value - Although there are a growing number of studies exploring biodiversity reporting in Australia‚ this paper is one of the earlier attempts to operationalise biodiversity (particularly habitats‚ flora and fauna) within the context of an Australian public sector enterprise.
    Citation

    Hossain, M. M. (2017). Accounting for biodiversity in Australia The case of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. Pacific Accounting Review, 29, 2–33. https://doi.org/10.1108/Par-03-2016-0033

  22. James, C. S., Reside, A. E., VanDerWal, J., Pearson, R. G., Burrows, D., Capon, S. J., Harwood, T. D., Hodgson, L., & Waltham, N. J. (2017). Sink or swim? Potential for high faunal turnover in Australian rivers under climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 44, 489–501. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12926

    Journal of Biogeography
    Abstract

    AimClimate change threatens biodiversity in all ecosystems‚ and major shifts in species distributions are expected. Freshwater ecosystems are considered particularly vulnerable due to the ectothermic physiology of most freshwater species and their limited habitat extent and capacity to track climate trends. In this study‚ we examined what broad patterns in freshwater riverine species turnover might be expected under climate change across continental Australia and what are the implications of these patterns for aquatic species and the low aquatic biodiversity of some bioregions?
    LocationContinental Australia.
    MethodsWe built statistical relationships between bioclimatic environments and the occurrence of species of four freshwater taxa (freshwater fish‚ crayfish‚ turtles and frogs) and examined trends in projected species turnover for a business as usual’ climate scenario. We used Maxent to model species distributions and present the median projection across 18 global climate models. A recently derived national stream network was used to generate estimates of mean annual river flow and to produce realistic species distributions and migration options by restricting dispersal and migration opportunities usually available to riverine fauna.
    ResultsHigh species turnover was driven overwhelmingly by potential local extinctions particularly for stream frogs and crayfish where their current biodiversity is largely confined to higher elevation headwater streams. We predicted high turnover for inland regions of Australia‚ which are arid and generally support fewer freshwater species.
    Main conclusionsOur analysis indicates that under the most severe emissions pathway‚ projected climate change is likely to cause substantial changes to the composition of faunal assemblages in Australian rivers well before the end of this century. While freshwater systems globally are subject to immediate and pressing threats from anthropogenic land and water use‚ management interventions addressing these pressures need to be considered within the context of climate change.
    Citation

    James, C. S., Reside, A. E., VanDerWal, J., Pearson, R. G., Burrows, D., Capon, S. J., Harwood, T. D., Hodgson, L., & Waltham, N. J. (2017). Sink or swim? Potential for high faunal turnover in Australian rivers under climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 44, 489–501. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12926

  23. Koshkina, V., Wang, Y., Gordon, A., Dorazio, R. M., White, M., Stone, L., & Warton, D. (2017). Integrated species distribution models: combining presence-background data and site-occupancy data with imperfect detection. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 8, 420–430. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12738

    Methods in Ecology and Evolution
    abstract
    Citation

    Koshkina, V., Wang, Y., Gordon, A., Dorazio, R. M., White, M., Stone, L., & Warton, D. (2017). Integrated species distribution models: combining presence-background data and site-occupancy data with imperfect detection. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 8, 420–430. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12738

  24. Lambkin, T. A. (2017). “Argynnis hyperbius inconstans” Butler, 1873 (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae: Heliconiinae): A review of its collection history and biology. Australian Entomologist, 44, 223–268.
    https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=309523676576681;res=IELHSS

    Australian Entomologist
    abstract
    Citation

    Lambkin, T. A. (2017). “Argynnis hyperbius inconstans” Butler, 1873 (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae: Heliconiinae): A review of its collection history and biology. Australian Entomologist, 44, 223–268.

  25. Jordan, R., Hoffmann, A. A., Dillon, S. K., & Prober, S. M. (2017). Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change. Molecular Ecology, 26, 6002–6020. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.14341

    Molecular Ecology
    Abstract

    Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation‚ especially in long-lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of FST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty-one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive‚ based on significance in FST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81)‚ aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes‚ with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies‚ with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations‚ we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations‚ or would benefit from assisted gene migration‚ requires further evaluation. In some populations‚ the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together‚ these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species’ evolutionary potential.
    Citation

    Jordan, R., Hoffmann, A. A., Dillon, S. K., & Prober, S. M. (2017). Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change. Molecular Ecology, 26, 6002–6020. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.14341

  26. Lee, T. R. C., Evans, T. A., Cameron, S. L., Hochuli, D. F., Ho, S. Y. W., & Lo, N. (2017). Ecological diversification of the Australian Coptotermes termites and the evolution of mound building. Journal of Biogeography, 44, 1405–1417. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12878

    Journal of Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim: The Australian Coptotermes (Family: Rhinotermitidae) are a small monophyletic group of termites‚ some of which build mounds. In this study‚ we construct predicted distributions based on environmental data (niche models) for all Australian species of Coptotermes to test whether specific environmental factors have contributed to the evolution of mound-building behaviour and whether the degree of niche similarity and degree of phylogenetic similarity are correlated. Location: The Australian mainland‚ including the known native ranges of all Australian species of Coptotermes. Methods: We estimated the phylogenetic relationships between the species of Australian Coptotermes. We then generated and compared environmental niche models in a phylogenetic framework for all study species to test niche conservation. Our analyses were based on location data from our own sampling and from the Atlas of Living Australia‚ genetic data from a previous study of Australian Coptotermes‚ and environmental data from WorldClim and ASRIS. Results: We found that no environmental variable differed consistently between mound-building and non-mound-building taxa and that the differences in niches between pairs of Australian species of Coptotermes are uncorrelated with time since divergence. The environmental tolerances of the Australian Coptotermes termites are more restricted by rainfall than they are by soil or temperature. Main conclusions: Our results show that mound-building behaviour has not necessarily evolved in response to similar abiotic conditions. Our results are consistent with ecological speciation leading to niche divergence since Coptotermes first arrived in Australia \textasciitilde12.5 million years ago. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
    Citation

    Lee, T. R. C., Evans, T. A., Cameron, S. L., Hochuli, D. F., Ho, S. Y. W., & Lo, N. (2017). Ecological diversification of the Australian Coptotermes termites and the evolution of mound building. Journal of Biogeography, 44, 1405–1417. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12878

  27. Lin, H. Y., Bush, A., Linke, S., Possingham, H. P., & Brown, C. J. (2017). Climate change decouples marine and freshwater habitats of a threatened migratory fish. Diversity and Distributions, 23, 751–760. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12570

    Diversity and Distributions
    Abstract

    Aim: To assess how climate change may decouple the ecosystems used by a migratory fish‚ and how decoupling influences priorities for stream restoration.
    Location: Australia.
    Methods: We modelled changes in habitat suitability under climate change in both riverine and marine habitats for a threatened diadromous species‚ the Australian Grayling Prototroctes maraena‚ using niche models. The loss of riverine habitats for Grayling was compared with or without considering the impact of climate change on adjacent marine habitats. We also asked whether considering marine climate change changed the locations where removing dams had the greatest benefit for Grayling conservation.
    Results: Climate change is expected to cause local extinction in both marine and river habitats regardless of whether dams are retained or removed at the trailing edge of the Grayling’s range (north-eastern). Decoupling of habitats was most apparent in the eastern and south-eastern portion of the Grayling’s range‚ where ocean warming may cause a decline in the suitability of marine habitats for larvae‚ while many freshwater habitats retained suitable habitat for adults. Removing dams to restore connectivity between ocean and freshwater habitats was predicted to have the greatest benefit for Grayling in southern portions of their range. Under climate change‚ the priorities for barrier removal gradually shift towards dams at higher elevation because of increasing suitability of freshwater habitats at higher elevations.
    Main conclusions: Our study highlights the importance of assessing climate range shifts in multiple ecosystems for migratory species and can help inform priorities for stream restoration under a changing climate.
    Citation

    Lin, H. Y., Bush, A., Linke, S., Possingham, H. P., & Brown, C. J. (2017). Climate change decouples marine and freshwater habitats of a threatened migratory fish. Diversity and Distributions, 23, 751–760. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12570

  28. McKinney, M., & Kark, S. (2017). Factors shaping avian alien species richness in Australia vs Europe. Diversity and Distributions, 23, 1334–1342. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12625

    Diversity and Distributions
    Abstract

    AimWe aim to examine the relative importance of human activity-related and natural variables in shaping spatial patterns of alien bird species richness at the continental scale for Australia. We examine the drivers shaping establishment of alien birds in Australia in the framework of the human activity hypothesis and the biotic acceptance hypothesis (the rich get richer model of biotic invasion)‚ and directly compare our results to Europe.
    LocationContinental Australia‚ Tasmania‚ Continental Europe‚ United Kingdom.
    MethodsWe use compiled atlas data on alien bird richness in continental Australia and Tasmania together and separately‚ records of known alien bird introduction events compiled from various sources and a suite of biogeographic variables to evaluate drivers of alien bird richness at a 50-km resolution in Australia. We use hierarchical portioning and spatial generalized linear models to quantify the relative contribution of each environmental variable to alien bird richness. We then compare our results directly to those from a previous continental-scale study in Europe and in the UK.
    ResultsWe identify 24 established alien bird species across Australia (including nearshore islands and Tasmania) and present a detailed map of alien bird richness in Australia. We discover that in Australia‚ native bird species richness and land cover heterogeneity are the strongest predictors of alien bird richness at a 50-km resolution‚ supporting the rich get richer model of species invasion.
    Main conclusionsOur results are contrary to Europe‚ where the human activity hypothesis was best supported. By performing a cross-continental comparison of drivers of alien bird richness‚ we show that processes shaping alien establishment and spread can vary across continents with variable human impact history and should be examined on a case-by-case basis before endorsing general hypotheses.
    Citation

    McKinney, M., & Kark, S. (2017). Factors shaping avian alien species richness in Australia vs Europe. Diversity and Distributions, 23, 1334–1342. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12625

  29. Martin-Fores, I., Guerin, G. R., & Lowe, A. J. (2017). Weed abundance is positively correlated with native plant diversity in grasslands of southern Australia. PLoS ONE, 12, e0178681. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178681

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    Weeds are commonly considered a threat to biodiversity‚ yet interactions between native and exotic species in grasslands are poorly understood and reported results vary depending on the spatial scale of study‚ the factors controlled for and the response variables analysed. We tested whether weed presence and abundance is related to declines in biodiversity in Australian grasslands. We employed existing field data from 241 plots along a disturbance gradient and correlated species richness‚ cover and Shannon diversity for natives and exotics‚ controlling for seasonal rainfall‚ climatic gradients and nutrient status. We found no negative relationships in terms of emergent diversity metrics and occupation of space‚ indeed‚ many positive relationships were revealed. When split by land-use‚ differences were found along the disturbance gradient. In high-moderately disturbed grasslands associated with land-uses such as cropping and modified pastures‚ positive associations were enhanced. Tolerance and facilitation mechanisms may be involved‚ such as complementary roles through different life history strategies: the exotic flora was dominated mainly by annual grasses and herbs whereas the native flora represented more diverse growth-forms with a higher proportion of perennials. The positive relationships existing between native and exotic plant species in high-moderately disturbed grasslands of South Australia are most likely due to facilitation through different strategies in occupation of space given that the effect of habitat suitability was controlled for by including environmental and disturbance factors. Consequently‚ although particular weeds may negatively impact biodiversity‚ this cannot be generalised and management focusing on general weed eradication in grasslands might be ineffectual.
    Citation

    Martin-Fores, I., Guerin, G. R., & Lowe, A. J. (2017). Weed abundance is positively correlated with native plant diversity in grasslands of southern Australia. PLoS ONE, 12, e0178681. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178681

  30. Morán-Ordóñez, A., Lahoz-Monfort, J. J., Elith, J., & Wintle, B. A. (2017). Evaluating 318 continental-scale species distribution models over a 60-year prediction horizon: what factors influence the reliability of predictions? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 26, 371–384. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12545

    Global Ecology and Biogeography
    abstract
    Citation

    Morán-Ordóñez, A., Lahoz-Monfort, J. J., Elith, J., & Wintle, B. A. (2017). Evaluating 318 continental-scale species distribution models over a 60-year prediction horizon: what factors influence the reliability of predictions? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 26, 371–384. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12545

  31. Nunes, A. L., Zengeya, T. A., Measey, G. J., & Weyl, O. L. F. (2017). Freshwater crayfish invasions in South Africa: past, present and potential future. African Journal of Aquatic Science, 42(4), 309–323. https://doi.org/10.2989/16085914.2017.1405788

    African Journal of Aquatic Science
    Abstract

    Freshwater crayfish invasions have been studied around the world‚ but less so in Africa‚ a continent devoid of native
    freshwater crayfish. The present study reviews historical and current information on alien freshwater crayfish species
    introduced into South Africa and aims to indicate which areas are at risk from invasion. As is the case elsewhere‚
    South Africans have shown a keen interest in both farming and keeping freshwater crayfish as pets‚ which has
    resulted in Cherax cainii‚ Cherax destructor‚ Cherax quadricarinatus and Procambarus clarkii being introduced to
    the country. There is evidence of successful establishment in the wild for C. quadricarinatus and P. clarkii in different
    parts of the country. Species distribution models suggest that the eastern part of the country and parts of the Eastern
    and Western Cape are at higher risk of invasion. At present‚ illegal translocations represent the most likely pathway
    of crayfish spread in South Africa. A continued risk of invasion by freshwater crayfish species in South Africa is
    highlighted‚ which reinforces the need for more research‚ as well as for strong mitigation measures‚ such as stronger
    policing of existing regulations‚ management or eradication where feasible and public education.
    Citation

    Nunes, A. L., Zengeya, T. A., Measey, G. J., & Weyl, O. L. F. (2017). Freshwater crayfish invasions in South Africa: past, present and potential future. African Journal of Aquatic Science, 42(4), 309–323. https://doi.org/10.2989/16085914.2017.1405788

  32. Nge, F. J., Keighery, G. J., & Thiele, K. R. (2017). A revision of the Calytrix acutifolia complex (Myrtaceae: Chamelaucieae). Nuytsia, 28, 321–337.
    https://florabase.dpaw.wa.gov.au/nuytsia/article/847

    Nuytsia
    Nuytsia
    abstract
    Citation

    Nge, F. J., Keighery, G. J., & Thiele, K. R. (2017). A revision of the Calytrix acutifolia complex (Myrtaceae: Chamelaucieae). Nuytsia, 28, 321–337.

  33. Nimbs, M. J., Willan, R. C., & Smith, S. D. A. (2017). Is Port Stephens, eastern Australia, a global hotspot for biodiversity of Aplysiidae (Gastropoda: Heterobranchia)? Molluscan Research, 37, 45–65. https://doi.org/10.1080/13235818.2016.1207280

    Molluscan Research
    Abstract

    Port Stephens‚ a large natural harbour on the central New South Wales (NSW) coast‚ provides ideal oceanographic and benthic conditions for the growth of marine algae and seagrasses‚ and this promotes a suite of herbivorous heterobranch sea slugs such as sea hares and sap-sucking sea slugs. In this article we document both historic and recent observations of sea hares (family Aplysiidae) from Port Stephens with the intention of recording species diversity. The western South Pacific region has the richest aplysiid fauna in the world‚ with 16 species now recorded in Port Stephens. This location is the most taxonomically diverse for this family in Australia. Despite this hotspot of aplysiid diversity‚ the taxonomy and nomenclature of 12 species is uncertain‚ a fact highlighted by a series of nomenclatural notes included in this article. We herein report the first observation of Petalifera sp. in Australian waters. Dolabrifera jacksoniensis Pilsbry‚ 1896 is newly synonymised with D. brazieri G.B. Sowerby II‚ 1870. Recent reports of southern range extensions for other heterobranch sea slugs‚ both in Port Stephens and elsewhere in NSW‚ highlight the importance of recording the existing aplysiid diversity in the port. Thus‚ any future alteration to species composition and range shifts driven by climate change may be detected. © 2016 The Malacological Society of Australasia and the Society for the Study of Molluscan Diversity.
    Citation

    Nimbs, M. J., Willan, R. C., & Smith, S. D. A. (2017). Is Port Stephens, eastern Australia, a global hotspot for biodiversity of Aplysiidae (Gastropoda: Heterobranchia)? Molluscan Research, 37, 45–65. https://doi.org/10.1080/13235818.2016.1207280

  34. Ofori, B. Y., Stow, A. J., Baumgartner, J. B., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment. Scientific Reports, 7, 12979. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13245-y

    Scientific Reports
    Abstract

    Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) has become a mainstay conservation decision support tool. CCVAs are recommended to incorporate three elements of vulnerability - exposure‚ sensitivity and adaptive capacity - yet‚ lack of data frequently leads to the latter being excluded. Further‚ weighted or unweighted scoring schemes‚ based on expert opinion‚ may be applied. Comparisons of these approaches are rare. In a CCVA for 17 Australian lizard species‚ we show that membership within three vulnerability categories (low‚ medium and high) generally remained similar regardless of the framework or scoring scheme. There was one exception however‚ where‚ under the warm/dry scenario for 2070‚ including adaptive capacity lead to five fewer species being classified as highly vulnerable. Two species‚ Eulamprus leuraensis and E. kosciuskoi‚ were consistently ranked the most vulnerable‚ primarily due to projected losses in climatically suitable habitat‚ narrow thermal tolerance and specialist habitat requirements. Our findings provide relevant information for prioritizing target species for conservation and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We conclude that for the species included in this study‚ the framework and scoring scheme used had little impact on the identification of the most vulnerable species. We caution‚ however‚ that this outcome may not apply to other taxa or regions.
    Citation

    Ofori, B. Y., Stow, A. J., Baumgartner, J. B., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment. Scientific Reports, 7, 12979. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13245-y

  35. Penalba, J. V., Joseph, L., & Moritz, C. (2017). Current geography masks dynamic history of gene flow during speciation in northern Australian birds. BioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/178475

    bioRxiv
    bioRxiv
    abstract
    Citation

    Penalba, J. V., Joseph, L., & Moritz, C. (2017). Current geography masks dynamic history of gene flow during speciation in northern Australian birds. BioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/178475

  36. Ofori, B. Y., Stow, A. J., Baumgartner, J. B., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham’s skink, Egernia cunninghami. PLoS ONE, 12, e0184193. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184193

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However‚ studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically‚ often assuming "unlimited" or "no" dispersal. Here‚ we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham’s skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting‚ but equally plausible‚ scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet‚ warm/dry‚ hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet‚ at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020-2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23-63% at 1 km and 26-64% at 250 m‚ by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term‚ will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular‚ numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species’ range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note‚ however‚ that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change.
    Citation

    Ofori, B. Y., Stow, A. J., Baumgartner, J. B., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham’s skink, Egernia cunninghami. PLoS ONE, 12, e0184193. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184193

  37. Pepper, M., Hamilton, D. G., Merkling, T., Svedin, N., Cser, B., Catullo, R. A., Pryke, S. R., & Keogh, J. S. (2017). Phylogeographic structure across one of the largest intact tropical savannahs: Molecular and morphological analysis of Australia’s iconic frilled lizard Chlamydosaurus kingii. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 106, 217–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ympev.2016.09.002

    Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution
    Abstract

    The spectacular threat display of the savannah specialist Australo-Papuan frilled lizards has made them one of the world’s most iconic reptiles. They are increasingly used as a model system for research in evolutionary biology and ecology but little is known of their population structure. Their distribution across northern Australia and southern New Guinea also provides an opportunity to examine biogeographic patterns as they relate to the large-scale movement of savannah habitat during the Plio/Pleistocene and the associated increase in aridity. We generated sequence data for one mitochondria] and four nuclear DNA loci (5052 base pairs) for 83 frilled lizards sampled throughout their range. We also quantified body proportion variation for 279 individuals. Phylogenetic analyses based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian species-tree methods revealed three shallow clades that replace each other across the monsoon tropics. We found the expected pattern of male biased sexual size dimorphism in both maximum body size and head size but there was no sexual dimorphism in overall body shape or in frill size‚ relative to head size‚ supporting the hypothesis that the frill is used primarily as a threat display rather than a sexual display. The genetic clades are broadly consistent with known clinal variation in frill color that gradually shifts from west to east (red‚ orange‚ yellow/white) but otherwise show little morphological differentiation in body proportion measures. The biogeographic breaks between clades occur at the Carpentaria Gap and the lowlands surrounding the Ord River‚ and our ecological niche modeling predicts lower habitat suitability for C. kingii in these regions. While this biogeographic pattern is consistent with numerous other taxonomic groups in northern Australia‚ the overall low genetic diversity in frilled lizards across the entire monsoon tropics and southern New Guinea contrasts starkly to patterns seen in other terrestrial vertebrates. Extremely low intra-clade genetic diversity over vast geographic areas is indicative of recent gene flow that would likely have been facilitated by widespread savannah during interglacials‚ or alternatively may reflect population bottlenecks induced by extreme aridity during Pleistocene gladals. The shallow divergence between Australian and New Guinean samples is consistent with recent connectivity between Australia and New Guinea that would have been possible via a savannah corridor across the Torres Strait. Based on our molecular and morphological data‚ we do not support taxonomic recognition of any of the frilled lizard clades and instead consider C. kingii a single species with shallow phylogeographic structure and clinal variation in frill color. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Pepper, M., Hamilton, D. G., Merkling, T., Svedin, N., Cser, B., Catullo, R. A., Pryke, S. R., & Keogh, J. S. (2017). Phylogeographic structure across one of the largest intact tropical savannahs: Molecular and morphological analysis of Australia’s iconic frilled lizard Chlamydosaurus kingii. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 106, 217–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ympev.2016.09.002

  38. Ramirez-Cabral, N. Y. Z., Kumar, L., & Shabani, F. (2017). Global risk levels for corn rusts (Puccinia sorghi and Puccinia polysora) under climate change projections. Journal of Phytopathology, 165, 563–574. https://doi.org/10.1111/jph.12593

    Journal of Phytopathology
    Abstract

    Common rust (Puccinia sorghi) and southern rust (Puccinia polysora) are two of the most important foliar corn diseases worldwide. These fungi have caused severe economic loss to corn yields worldwide. The current and future potential distribution of these diseases was modelled with CLIMEX using the known current geographic locations of the rusts‚ growth and stress indices. The models were run under the A2 scenario using CSIRO-Mk3·0 and MIROC-H for 2050 and 2100. The current projection shows areas with marginal to optimal suitability in all the continents. The models for future projections display a general reduction in the Southern hemisphere and increase in the Northern hemisphere‚ especially for the southern rust. The overlay of the General Circulation Models produce an estimation of the common areas under risk for future climate conditions for the simultaneous occurrence for both corn rusts‚ with a reduction of the medium- and high-risk categories by 2100. This study highlights the possible effects of climate change at a global level for common and southern rust‚ as well as the risk of occurrence of both diseases in common areas for future climate that could be particularly harmful for crops. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH
    Citation

    Ramirez-Cabral, N. Y. Z., Kumar, L., & Shabani, F. (2017). Global risk levels for corn rusts (Puccinia sorghi and Puccinia polysora) under climate change projections. Journal of Phytopathology, 165, 563–574. https://doi.org/10.1111/jph.12593

  39. Radnan, G. N., & Eldridge, D. J. (2017). Does the morphology of animal foraging pits influence secondary seed dispersal by ants? Austral Ecology, 42, 920–928. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12519

    Austral Ecology
    Abstract

    Secondary seed dispersal by ants (myrmecochory) is an important process in semi-arid environments where seeds are transported from the soil surface to an ant nest. Microsites from which ants often remove seeds are the small pits and depressions made by native and exotic animals that forage in the soil. Previous studies have demonstrated greater seed retention in the pits of native than exotic animals‚ but little is known about how biotic factors such as secondary seed dispersal by ants affect seed removal and therefore retention in these foraging pits. We used an experimental approach to examine how the morphology of burrowing bettong (Bettongia lesueur)‚ greater bilby (Macrotis lagotis)‚ short-beaked echidna (Tachyglossus aculeatus) and European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) foraging pits and ant body size influenced ant locomotion and seed removal from pits along an aridity gradient. Ants took 3.7-times longer to emerge from echidna pits (19.6 s) and six-times longer to emerge from bettong pits (30.5 s) than from rabbit pits (5.2 s)‚ resulting in lower seed removal from bettong pits than other pit types. Fewer seeds were removed from pits when cages were used to exclude large body-sized (>2 mm) ants. Few seeds were removed from the pits or surface up to aridity values of 0.5 (humid and dry sub-humid)‚ but removal increased rapidly in semi-arid and arid zones. Our study demonstrates that mammal foraging pit morphology significantly affects ant locomotion‚ the ability of ants to retrieve seeds‚ and therefore the likelihood that seeds will be retained within foraging pits. © 2017 Ecological Society of Australia
    Citation

    Radnan, G. N., & Eldridge, D. J. (2017). Does the morphology of animal foraging pits influence secondary seed dispersal by ants? Austral Ecology, 42, 920–928. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12519

  40. Reside, A. E., VanDerWal, J., & Moran, C. (2017). Trade-offs in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation under climate change reveal risk to endemic species. Biological Conservation, 207, 9–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.01.004

    Biological Conservation
    Abstract

    Carbon offset funds provide substantial opportunities for protection and restoration of native ecosystems‚ with corresponding gains for biodiversity and reductions in atmospheric carbon. However‚ biodiversity could be disadvantaged if not properly accounted for‚ particularly under climate change‚ where high carbon gains do not coincide spatially with biodiversity priorities. While globally there is congruence for species richness and carbon stocks‚ adequate conservation needs to incorporate more refined measures of biodiversity - and consideration of the impact of future climate change. We investigated the spatial trade-off for carbon and biodiversity priorities in north-eastern Australia based on current and projected climate‚ using the Zonation prioritisation software. By iteratively weighting carbon against biodiversity we found that prioritising laird based on biodiversity value (for 697 vertebrates) included priority areas for potential carbon sequestration (Maximum Potential Biomass). However‚ if prioritisation was based on carbon sequestration potential alone‚ substantial areas important for biodiversity would be lost. Policy frameworks need to be strengthened to remove barriers from landholder participation in carbon storage projects that have biodiversity benefits‚ and to require that both carbon and biodiversity gains are additional. Properly accounting for biodiversity in land-based carbon sequestration and storage prioritisation in this region is likely to generate substantial benefits for both biodiversity and carbon. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Reside, A. E., VanDerWal, J., & Moran, C. (2017). Trade-offs in carbon storage and biodiversity conservation under climate change reveal risk to endemic species. Biological Conservation, 207, 9–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.01.004

  41. Reside, A. E., VanDerWal, J., Moilanen, A., & Graham, E. M. (2017). Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia. PLoS ONE, 12, e0172230. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172230

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    With the high rate of ecosystem change already occurring and predicted to occur in the coming decades‚ long-term conservation has to account not only for current biodiversity but also for the biodiversity patterns anticipated for the future. The trade-offs between prioritising future biodiversity at the expense of current priorities must be understood to guide current conservation planning‚ but have been largely unexplored. To fill this gap‚ we compared the performance of four conservation planning solutions involving 662 vertebrate species in the Wet Tropics Natural Resource Management Cluster Region in north-eastern Australia. Input species data for the four planning solutions were: 1) current distributions; 2) projected distributions for 2055; 3) projected distributions for 2085; and 4) current‚ 2055 and 2085 projected distributions‚ and the connectivity between each of the three time periods for each species. The four planning solutions were remarkably similar (up to 85% overlap)‚ suggesting that modelling for either current or future scenarios is sufficient for conversation planning for this region‚ with little obvious trade-off. Our analyses also revealed that overall‚ species with small ranges occurring across steep elevation gradients and at higher elevations were more likely to be better represented in all solutions. Given that species with these characteristics are of high conservation significance‚ our results provide confidence that conservation planning focused on either current‚ near- or distant-future biodiversity will account for these species.
    Citation

    Reside, A. E., VanDerWal, J., Moilanen, A., & Graham, E. M. (2017). Examining current or future trade-offs for biodiversity conservation in north-eastern Australia. PLoS ONE, 12, e0172230. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172230

  42. Shabani, F., Kumar, L., & Ahmadi, M. (2017). Climate modelling shows increased risk to eucalyptus sideroxylon on the eastern coast of Australia compared to eucalyptus albens. Plants, 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants6040058

    Plants
    Plants
    Abstract

    Aim: To identify the extent and direction of range shift of Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens in Australia by 2050 through an ensemble forecast of four species distribution models (SDMs). Each was generated using four global climate models (GCMs)‚ under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Location: Australia. Methods: We used four SDMs of (i) generalized linear model‚ (ii) MaxEnt‚ (iii) random forest‚ and (iv) boosted regression tree to construct SDMs for species E. sideroxylon and E. albens under four GCMs including (a) MRI-CGCM3‚ (b) MIROC5‚ (c) HadGEM2-AO and (d) CCSM4‚ under two RCPs of 4.5 and 6.0. Here‚ the true skill statistic (TSS) index was used to assess the accuracy of each SDM. Results: Results showed that E. albens and E. sideroxylon will lose large areas of their current suitable range by 2050 and E. sideroxylon is projected to gain in eastern and southeastern Australia. Some areas were also projected to remain suitable for each species between now and 2050. Our modelling showed that E. sideroxylon will lose suitable habitat on the western side and will not gain any on the eastern side because this region is one the most heavily populated areas in the country‚ and the populated areas are moving westward. The predicted decrease in E. sideroxylon’s distribution suggests that land managers should monitor its population closely‚ and evaluate whether it meets criteria for a protected legal status. Main conclusions: Both Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens will be negatively affected by climate change and it is projected that E. sideroxylon will be at greater risk of losing habitat than E. albens. © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI‚ Basel‚ Switzerland.
    Citation

    Shabani, F., Kumar, L., & Ahmadi, M. (2017). Climate modelling shows increased risk to eucalyptus sideroxylon on the eastern coast of Australia compared to eucalyptus albens. Plants, 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants6040058

  43. Shapcott, A., Lamont, R. W., Conroy, G., James, H. E., & Shimizu-Kimura, Y. (2017). Genetics and species distribution modelling of Solanum johnsonianum (Solanaceae) reveal impacts of brigalow land clearing on this endemic species. Conservation Genetics, 18, 1331–1346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-017-0983-1

    Conservation Genetics
    Abstract

    Australia is one of the centres of diversity for Solanum and many species are found in the arid zone with a concentration in the Brigalow belt. This region has been significantly impacted by land clearing and Brigalow is now an endangered vegetation type. Recent gas pipeline developments have led to further impacts to endangered species within the region necessitating offset and translocation activities. Solanum johnsonianum was impacted by pipeline construction despite little knowledge of its ecology or genetics to guide translocation or restoration. This study conducted field surveys‚ habitat modelling‚ and genetic analysis in order to increase understanding of S. johnsonianum. The species has moderate to low genetic diversity across its localised geographic range. The populations are not inbred‚ with some exhibiting heterozygote excess. The populations that are located close to the pipeline were among those with the highest genetic diversity. Population size varies among populations and was not correlated with genetic diversity. Evidence of clonal spread was found in most populations however they also produce viable seeds and most plants are productively active. The results indicate that care should be taken to maintain provenance and that it is recommended to follow guidelines which limit mixing of plants from different populations.
    Citation

    Shapcott, A., Lamont, R. W., Conroy, G., James, H. E., & Shimizu-Kimura, Y. (2017). Genetics and species distribution modelling of Solanum johnsonianum (Solanaceae) reveal impacts of brigalow land clearing on this endemic species. Conservation Genetics, 18, 1331–1346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-017-0983-1

  44. Steane, D. A., Mclean, E. H., Potts, B. M., Prober, S. M., Stock, W. D., Stylianou, V. M., Vaillancourt, R. E., & Byrne, M. (2017). Evidence for adaptation and acclimation in a widespread eucalypt of semi-arid Australia. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 121, 484–500. https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blw051

    Biological Journal of the Linnean Society
    Abstract

    As climates change‚ restoration programmes need to maximize the capacity of regenerating ecosystems to adapt to new environments‚ particularly when planting long-lived trees. By using a combined phenotypic and genomic approach‚ we assessed evidence of adaptation capacity in Eucalyptus loxophleba ssp. lissophloia‚ a mallee eucalypt important for restoration and oil production in Western Australia. Assessment of leaf traits in nine wild populations across a rainfall gradient showed that two traits were correlated with long-term moisture availability. Populations in more arid environments had lower specific leaf area and lower stomatal conductance‚ consistent with a stable plastic or adaptive response. Other leaf size and shape traits were correlated with short-term climate variables‚ suggesting a dynamic plastic response.
    Genome-wide scans with 4851 DArTseq markers and outlier analysis detected 50 markers showing signals of disruptive selection‚ consistent with local adaptation. Sixteen markers showed allele frequencies correlated with aridity; three were also associated with differences in stomatal conductance. Multivariate analysis and marker-environment associations signalled secondary directions of adaptation associated with maximum temperatures and soil phosphorus. We suggest that adaptation and acclimation are both likely determinants of functional phenotype in E. loxophleba‚ and argue that aridity is a critical driver of adaptation in this widespread species.
    Citation

    Steane, D. A., Mclean, E. H., Potts, B. M., Prober, S. M., Stock, W. D., Stylianou, V. M., Vaillancourt, R. E., & Byrne, M. (2017). Evidence for adaptation and acclimation in a widespread eucalypt of semi-arid Australia. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 121, 484–500. https://doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blw051

  45. Steane, D. A., Potts, B. M., McLean, E. H., Collins, L., Holland, B. R., Prober, S. M., Stock, W. D., Vaillancourt, R. E., & Byrne, M. (2017). Genomic Scans across Three Eucalypts Suggest that Adaptation to Aridity is a Genome-Wide Phenomenon. Genome Biology and Evolution, 9, 253–265. https://doi.org/10.1093/gbe/evw290

    Genome Biology and Evolution
    Abstract

    Widespread species spanning strong environmental (e.g.‚ climatic) gradients frequently display morphological and physiological adaptations to local conditions. Some adaptations are common to different species that occupy similar environments. However‚ the genomic architecture underlying such convergent traits may not be the same between species. Using genomic data from previous studies of three widespread eucalypt species that grow along rainfall gradients in southern Australia‚ our probabilistic approach provides evidence that adaptation to aridity is a genome-wide phenomenon‚ likely to involve multiple and diverse genes‚ gene families and regulatory regions that affect a multitude of complex genetic and biochemical processes.
    Citation

    Steane, D. A., Potts, B. M., McLean, E. H., Collins, L., Holland, B. R., Prober, S. M., Stock, W. D., Vaillancourt, R. E., & Byrne, M. (2017). Genomic Scans across Three Eucalypts Suggest that Adaptation to Aridity is a Genome-Wide Phenomenon. Genome Biology and Evolution, 9, 253–265. https://doi.org/10.1093/gbe/evw290

  46. Sultana, S., Baumgartner, J. B., Dominiak, B. C., Royer, J. E., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly. Scientific Reports, 7, 13025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13307-1

    Scientific Reports
    Abstract

    Anthropogenic climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distributions of pests and invasive species. The Queensland fruit fly‚ Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Qfly)‚ is the most economically damaging insect pest of Australia’s horticultural industry‚ and its management is a key priority for plant protection and biosecurity. Identifying the extent to which climate change may alter the distribution of suitable habitat for Qfly is important for the development and continuation of effective monitoring programs‚ phytosanitary measures‚ and management strategies. We used Maxent‚ a species distribution model‚ to map suitable habitat for Qfly under current climate‚ and six climate scenarios for 2030‚ 2050 and 2070. Our results highlight that south-western Australia‚ northern regions of the Northern Territory‚ eastern Queensland‚ and much of south-eastern Australia are currently suitable for Qfly. This includes southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania‚ which are currently free of breeding populations. There is substantial agreement across future climate scenarios that most areas currently suitable will remain so until at least 2070. Our projections provide an initial estimate of the potential exposure of Australia’s horticultural industry to Qfly as climate changes‚ highlighting the need for long-term vigilance across southern Australia to prevent further range expansion of this species.
    Citation

    Sultana, S., Baumgartner, J. B., Dominiak, B. C., Royer, J. E., & Beaumont, L. J. (2017). Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly. Scientific Reports, 7, 13025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13307-1

  47. Vidal-García, M., & Keogh, J. S. (2017). Invasive cane toads are unique in shape but overlap in ecological niche compared to Australian native frogs. Ecology and Evolution, 7, 7609–7619. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3253

    Ecology and Evolution
    Abstract

    Invasive species are an important issue worldwide but predicting invasiveness‚ and the underlying mechanisms that cause it‚ is difficult. There are several primary hypotheses to explain invasion success. Two main hypothesis based on niche spaces stand out as alternative‚ although not exclusive. The empty niche hypothesis states that invaders occupy a vacant niche space in the recipient community‚ and the niche competition hypothesis states that invaders overlap with native species in niche space. Studies on trait similarity/dissimilarity between the invader and native species can provide information on their niche overlap. Here‚ we use the highly invasive and well-studied cane toad (Rhinella marina) to test these two hypotheses in Australia‚ and assess its degree of overlap with native species in several niche dimensions. We compare extensive morphological and environmental data of this successful invader to 235 species (97%) of native Australian frogs. Our study is the first to document the significant morphological differences between the invasive cane toad and a continent-wide frog radiation: despite significant environmental overlap‚ cane toads were distinct in body size and shape from most Australian frog species‚ suggesting that in addition to their previously documented phenotypic plasticity and wide environmental and trophic niche breadth‚ their unique shape also may have contributed to their success as an invasive species in Australia. Thus‚ the invasive success of cane toads in Australia may be explained through them successfully colonizing an empty niche among Australian anurans. Our results support that the cane toad’s distinct morphology may have played a unique role in the invasiveness of this species in Australia‚ which coupled with a broad environmental niche breadth‚ would have boosted their ability to expand their distribution across Australia. We also propose RLLR (Relative limb length ratio) as a potentially useful measure of identifying morphological niche uniqueness and a potential measure of invasiveness potential in anuran amphibians. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
    Citation

    Vidal-García, M., & Keogh, J. S. (2017). Invasive cane toads are unique in shape but overlap in ecological niche compared to Australian native frogs. Ecology and Evolution, 7, 7609–7619. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3253

  48. Wilson, D., Hansen, B., Honan, J., & Chamberlain, R. (2017). 170 years of Latham’s Snipe Gallinago hardwickii arrivals in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory show no change in arrival date. Australian Field Ornithology, 34, 76–79. https://doi.org/10.20938/afo34076079

    Australian Field Ornithology
    Abstract

    An understanding of migration phenology is critical to the conservation of long-distance migrants. Latham’s Snipe Gallinago hardwickii is a cryptic‚ dispersed migratory wader that breeds in northern Japan during the austral winter and migrates to Australia for the non-breeding period. Records of this species for New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) were extracted from a range of data sources including hunting reports‚ the Atlas of Living Australia‚ eBird and citizen science records‚ generating a dataset of first-arrival dates for 170 years (1846-2016). The first record in each year‚ corresponding to the expected arrival period of Latham’s Snipe on southward migration‚ was used to infer the date of first arrival. These dates were analysed using simple linear regression against Julian day to test the hypothesis that changes in climate (i.e. increasing mean annual temperature) might result in a corresponding shift in arrival dates. The mean Julian day of first arrivals in NSW and the ACT was 14 August ± 9 days‚ with no significant change over the 170-year span of records. This suggests that migration phenology of Latham’s Snipe has not been strongly influenced by changing large-scale climatic conditions at either the breeding or non-breeding grounds.
    Citation

    Wilson, D., Hansen, B., Honan, J., & Chamberlain, R. (2017). 170 years of Latham’s Snipe Gallinago hardwickii arrivals in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory show no change in arrival date. Australian Field Ornithology, 34, 76–79. https://doi.org/10.20938/afo34076079

  49. Whitau, R., Balme, J., O’Connor, S., & Wood, R. (2017). Wood charcoal analysis at Riwi cave, Gooniyandi country, Western Australia. Quaternary International, 457, 140–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.07.046

    Quaternary International
    Abstract

    Wood charcoals excavated from archaeological sites provide a useful tool for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction‚ particularly in arid and semi-arid zones‚ where suitable catchments for palynological archives are often limited. Preservation of organic material in northern Australia is characteristically poor‚ and wood charcoal analysis provides a viable alternative to understand shifts in woody vegetation in the past. The analysis of charcoal from matrix contexts at Riwi cave‚ located in the southern Kimberley region of northern Western Australia‚ has allowed a reconstruction of the local woody vegetation during occupation over the last 45‚000 years. The wood charcoal assemblage from the Holocene stratigraphic units reflects the composition of the modern vegetation‚ and illustrates that people were occupying the site during periods of relative humidity. The Pleistocene stratigraphic units show a shift in vegetation composition from Eucalyptus spp. to Corymbia sp. dominated savanna‚ with an understory of secondary shrub‚ associated with a Late MIS 3 arid event observed in both terrestrial and marine archives‚ suggesting that activities continued at Riwi during this arid event. Further anthracological analysis of other sites in the Kimberley will help to build a regional picture of woody vegetation change‚ and will further disentangle local and regional climatic signals‚ particularly in relation to phases of occupation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Whitau, R., Balme, J., O’Connor, S., & Wood, R. (2017). Wood charcoal analysis at Riwi cave, Gooniyandi country, Western Australia. Quaternary International, 457, 140–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.07.046

  50. Fromont, J., Wahab, M. A. A., Gomez, O., Ekins, M., Grol, M., & Hooper, J. N. A. (2017). Sponges of the north west of Western Australia: biogeography and considerations for dredging related research (No. Theme 6 ,  Project 6.2; p. 73). Western Australian Marine Science Institution.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321532789

    abstract
    Citation

    Fromont, J., Wahab, M. A. A., Gomez, O., Ekins, M., Grol, M., & Hooper, J. N. A. (2017). Sponges of the north west of Western Australia: biogeography and considerations for dredging related research (No. Theme 6 ,  Project 6.2; p. 73). Western Australian Marine Science Institution.

  51. Eddie, C. (2017). Ecological Assessment Report - Kentucky 2017 Core Hole. Boobook Ecological Consulting.
    https://www.santos.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/kentucky-ecological-assessment-report.pdf

    abstract
    Citation

    Eddie, C. (2017). Ecological Assessment Report - Kentucky 2017 Core Hole. Boobook Ecological Consulting.

  52. Scroggie, M. P., Moloney, P. D., & Ramsey, D. S. L. (2017). Design of an aerial survey to estimate the abundance of kangaroos in Victoria (Technical Report No. 280). Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research.
    https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/consultations/14b5b0e9-3473-48b8-b4b6-17de025c2f7d/files/kangaroo-pet-food-trial-survey.pdf

    abstract
    Citation

    Scroggie, M. P., Moloney, P. D., & Ramsey, D. S. L. (2017). Design of an aerial survey to estimate the abundance of kangaroos in Victoria (Technical Report No. 280). Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research.

  53. Lin, H. Y. (2017). Conserving migratory species under human impacts and climate change [PhD]. University of Queensland.
    https://doi.org/10.14264/uql.2017.750

    Abstract

    Migratory species use multiple habitats types and ecosystems to complete their life cycles‚ which exposes them to multiple human-caused stressors along their migratory routes. Overexploitation‚ habitat degradation‚ invasive species and connectivity loss have contributed to the decrease of migratory fishes globally in particular diadromous fishes that migrate between marine and freshwater systems. Therefore‚ understanding the joint impacts from anthropogenic disturbances and climate change on different habitats (e.g.‚ both feeding and spawning grounds) and habitat connectivity (e.g.‚ migration routes) is important for conserving migratory fish.
    Management will be most effective when management scales match ecological scales. This is particularly important for conserving migratory species‚ because of the requirement of multiple connected habitats that may cross local management boundaries. The main goals of this Ph.D. thesis are to quantify the impacts of multiple stressors on migratory fish species and prioritize management actions for conserving populations (chapters 2 & 3)‚ species (chapter 4)‚ and communities (chapter 5).
    A central challenge for managing diadromous fishes (species that migrate between freshwater and saltwater ecosystems) is to quantify increases in population persistence from actions that improve connectivity or reduce fishing mortality. In chapter 2‚ I used a population dynamic model and fish movement data to predict the interactive impacts of fishing pressure and connectivity loss by human modification of river flows on Australian bass Percalates novemaculeata. Then‚ in chapter 3‚ the monetary cost of management actions which included seasonal closures and restoring connectivity‚ were included in the model to find the most cost-effective way to conserve this fish population. The results reveal that the cost-effectiveness of management actions may vary with river flow and fishing pressure before implementing management actions‚ and implementation times. The spatiotemporal dynamics of how fish species and key resource users (i.e.‚ anglers) respond to management actions can influence the effectiveness of management strategies. Flexible management plans and increased cooperation between water and fishery managers can be used to achieve the most effective balance between conserving migratory fish populations and minimising cost.
    Migratory species are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they occupy different ecosystems‚ as well as transitional habitat which are all impacted by climate change differently. Anthropogenic barriers can further reduce the ability of species to respond to a shifting climate. In chapter 4‚ I assessed the impact of climate change on the distribution of a migratory fish species‚ Australian grayling Prototroctes maraena‚ and how it affected priorities for restoring connectivity. I found climate change moves at different rates in marine and freshwater systems‚ decoupling the habitats used by grayling. In addition‚ the changing spatial distribution of suitable habitats in marine and freshwater systems altered the degree the species was exposed to other anthropogenic disturbances and changed the priorities for where to restore connectivity.
    In ecosystems that are vulnerable to human impacts‚ understanding how species assemblages respond to multiple disturbances is a key issue for conservation and environmental management. In chapter 5‚ I examined changes in fish community structure in Fiji‚ in response to deforestation‚ anthropogenic barriers and introduced species. My findings suggest that species traits can be used to predict species loss in modified environments‚ helps identify the impact of partially-confounded disturbances and may ultimately help tailor conservation actions for the most vulnerable species. This thesis disentangles the interacting impacts of multiple disturbances on migratory species. It outlines a quantitative approach to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of management actions‚ and the impacts of disturbances across different ecological and management scales. Simple but spatial explicit population model‚ habitat suitability model and trait-based surrogate were used to overcome the lack of adequate data for non-salmon diadromous species. In a broader sense‚ it demonstrates that by integrating stressors throughout a species’ life cycle can help to optimise conservation effort for migratory species.
    Citation

    Lin, H. Y. (2017). Conserving migratory species under human impacts and climate change [PhD]. University of Queensland.

  54. Morris, W. K. (2017). Value of information for conservation and natural resource management [PhD]. University of Melbourne.
    http://hdl.handle.net/11343/192510

    Abstract

    The value of information (VOI) is a set of decision theoretic tools that were formulated over half a century ago. More recently‚ VOI analysis has been applied to decision problems for conservation and natural resource management. In this thesis I explore the use of VOI for the conservation sciences to date‚ extend its application to new subfields and problem types‚ and address gaps in the understanding of its implementation and implications for conservation decision makers.
    I begin this thesis with a review of VOI analysis for conservation and natural resource management. I found that there are two branches of VOI in the literature. The first consists of informal VOI analyses‚ commonly applied to spatial conservation planning problems. The second branch employs VOI in the formal sense. Formal VOI has tended to be used for problems involving the management of plant and animal populations. I conjecture that differences in how the two branches apply their analyses have led to formal VOI reporting low value of information‚ while informal methods often report larger value.
    I then undertake three new case studies using VOI analyses for conservation decision problems. In the first‚ I apply VOI to the management of Box-Ironbark forest and woodland management. Here I demonstrate how VOI can be calculated when a system model is large‚ complicated and involves many model parameters. I use modern statistical tools such as multivariate adaptive regression splines‚ and Monte Carlo simulation to make the problem more tractable. In the second case-study I extend the use of VOI to the field of spatial conservation planning‚ a field previously the domain of informal VOI analysis. Here I show how bootstrapped habitat maps can be used to summarize the inherent uncertainty in a spatial conservation plan and how spatial conservation planning software such as Zonation‚ in conjunction with statitistical boostrapping‚ can be used to calculate the value of reducing that uncertainty for the decision maker/reserve designer. In my last case-study I explore the use of expected value of sample information (EVSI) to optimize learning about bids in a conservation auction. In doing so‚ I propose a set of guiding principles that an agency conducting a conservation auction can apply before they decide to invest in conservation actions. The principles will allow a better allocation of resources for learning about bid cost-efficiency.
    Before concluding my thesis I tackle a subject so far avoided in the conservation and natural resources management literature; the interaction of risk-tolerance and value of information. Here I demonstrate‚ with the aid of a toy example‚ that ignoring the role of risk-tolerance in decision making can mislead an analyst who is calculating the value of information.
    This work has extended the number and types of problems for which VOI analyses have been applied for conservation problems and outlines a number of new techniques that may be of use to decision-makers.
    Citation

    Morris, W. K. (2017). Value of information for conservation and natural resource management [PhD]. University of Melbourne.

2016

  1. Adhikari, M. K. (2016). Revised checklist to the mycotaxa proposed from Nepal. Bulletin of Department of Plant Resources, 38, 1–11.
    http://dpr.gov.np/download/publications/Plant%20Resource%202016.pdf

    Bulletin of Department of Plant Resources
    Abstract

    The proposed mycotaxa accumulated since the works of Berkely (1854) from Nepal are revised based
    on 156 published papers for their endemism.The papers record about 5 monotypic taxa and 203 species
    of mycobiota gathered from different regions of Nepalese Himalayan belt. At present‚ the list shows 131
    endemic species. Among them the nomenclature of 120 taxa remains as proposed‚ while 11 species
    have undergone synonyms. Sixtyfour species have been recorded to occure in other countries.Two taxa
    remains invalid.
    Citation

    Adhikari, M. K. (2016). Revised checklist to the mycotaxa proposed from Nepal. Bulletin of Department of Plant Resources, 38, 1–11.

  2. Beaumont, L. J., Graham, E., Duursma, D. E., Wilson, P. D., Cabrelli, A., Baumgartner, J. B., Hallgren, W., Esperon-Rodriguez, M., Nipperess, D. A., Warren, D. L., Laffan, S. W., & VanDerWal, J. (2016). Which species distribution models are more (or less) likely to project broad-scale, climate-induced shifts in species ranges? Ecological Modelling, 342, 135–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.10.004

    Ecological Modelling
    abstract
    Citation

    Beaumont, L. J., Graham, E., Duursma, D. E., Wilson, P. D., Cabrelli, A., Baumgartner, J. B., Hallgren, W., Esperon-Rodriguez, M., Nipperess, D. A., Warren, D. L., Laffan, S. W., & VanDerWal, J. (2016). Which species distribution models are more (or less) likely to project broad-scale, climate-induced shifts in species ranges? Ecological Modelling, 342, 135–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.10.004

  3. Ahrens, C. W., & James, E. A. (2016). Conserving the small milkwort, Comesperma polygaloides, a vulnerable subshrub in a fragmented landscape. Conservation Genetics, 17, 891–901. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-016-0830-9

    Conservation Genetics
    Abstract

    The conservation of remnant grassland vegetation on the Victorian volcanic plain (VVP) is crucial for the persistence of local biodiversity. Recent habitat loss has restricted the grassland to only a small percentage of its former range. Along with grassland habitats‚ species that occur on the VVP are in decline and many are legally protected. Comesperma polygaloides is a grassland species of the VVP that also occurs outside of the region in woodland habitats. We use 12 neutral microsatellite loci and two chloroplast regions to understand genotypic patterns of C. polygaloides in southeastern Australia. We found separate genetic clusters but they do not follow geographic boundaries. There are fewer alleles (2.96) and effective alleles (2.01) than expected from 12 microsatellite markers compared to other species. Even with the low number of alleles per locus there was a moderate level of genetic diversity detected (I = 0.69; H-o = 0.43; H-e = 0.40). Populations of the VVP could not be differentiated from populations elsewhere using neutral markers or chloroplast analyses. The genetic structure discovered was not consistent with the level of fragmentation observed. There may be several reasons for the observed lack of genetic structure: the species is more common than perceived‚ plants are long-lived and can reproduce clonally‚ and the bioregion is relatively young‚ geologically. Results indicate that restoration projects and long-term viability of C. polygaloides will be improved by composite seed sourcing‚ alleviating the risk of insufficient genetic diversity posed by an over-emphasis on local provenancing.
    Citation

    Ahrens, C. W., & James, E. A. (2016). Conserving the small milkwort, Comesperma polygaloides, a vulnerable subshrub in a fragmented landscape. Conservation Genetics, 17, 891–901. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10592-016-0830-9

  4. Arundel, J., Winter, S., Gui, G., & Keatley, M. (2016). A web-based application for beekeepers to visualise patterns of growth in floral resources using MODIS data. Environmental Modelling and Software, 83, 116–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.010

    Environmental Modelling and Software
    Abstract

    The honey bee industry is of immense importance to global agriculture. In many countries beekeepers are migratory and move their hives between flowering events. Predicting such flowering events is particularly difficult in Australia due to the irregular flowering of eucalypts. We have developed a web-based application for Victorian beekeepers to visualise patterns of growth in floral resources using MODIS and other data‚ and thus make remote predictions about whether flowering will occur at their apiary sites. We demonstrate the use of this application through comparing ironbark (Eucalyptus tricarpa) growth patterns with flowering and honey production records. While the scientific community as a whole has embraced the use of satellite imagery as a tool for phenological studies‚ our prototype represents the first attempt to make this same information available to a more general audience. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
    Citation

    Arundel, J., Winter, S., Gui, G., & Keatley, M. (2016). A web-based application for beekeepers to visualise patterns of growth in floral resources using MODIS data. Environmental Modelling and Software, 83, 116–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.010

  5. Bellard, C., Leclerc, C., Hoffmann, B. D., & Courchamp, F. (2016). Vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise of the 35th biodiversity hotspot, the Forests of East Australia. Environmental Conservation, 43, 79–89. https://doi.org/10.1017/S037689291500020X

    Environmental Conservation
    Abstract

    There is an urgent need to understand how climate change‚ including sea-level rise‚ is likely to threaten biodiversity and cause secondary effects‚ such as agro-ecosystem alteration and human displacement. The consequences of climate change‚ and the resulting sea-level rise within the Forests of East Australia biodiversity hotspot‚ were modelled and assessed for the 2070-2099 period. Climate change effects were predicted to affect c. 100000 km2‚ and a rise in sea level an area of 860 km2; this could potentially lead to the displacement of 20600 inhabitants. The two threats were projected to mainly affect natural and agricultural areas. The greatest conservation benefits would be obtained by either maintaining or increasing the conservation status of areas in the northern (Wet Tropics) or southern (Sydney Basin) extremities of the hotspot‚ as they constitute about half of the area predicted to be affected by climate change‚ and both areas harbour high species richness. Increasing the connectivity of protected areas for Wet Tropics and Sydney Basin species to enable them to move into new habitat areas is also important. This study provides a basis for future research on the effects on local biodiversity and agriculture. © 2015 Foundation for Environmental Conservation.
    Citation

    Bellard, C., Leclerc, C., Hoffmann, B. D., & Courchamp, F. (2016). Vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise of the 35th biodiversity hotspot, the Forests of East Australia. Environmental Conservation, 43, 79–89. https://doi.org/10.1017/S037689291500020X

  6. Booth, T. H. (2016). Estimating potential range and hence climatic adaptability in selected tree species. Forest Ecology and Management, 366, 175–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.02.009

    Forest Ecology and Management
    Abstract

    Estimating climatic conditions within the potential range of different species is important‚ as it can assist evaluating their ability to tolerate climate change. Potential range was analysed using a BIOCLIM analysis in relation to three climatic variables: a growth index‚ the mean minimum temperature of the coldest period (week) and a moisture index. Three eucalypt species were analysed to demonstrate some of the strengths and weaknesses of the method. These included a well-known commercially important species (Eucalyptus globulus)‚ a lesser-known species (E. botryoides) and a rare species (E. kruseana). To provide a simple assessment of climatic adaptability the highest values of mean annual temperature were determined from within the potential ranges of the three species. It is concluded that‚ if they are available‚ analysing conditions at eucalypt plantings outside their natural distributions may be most useful for determining how species may cope with changing climates. However‚ if such data are not available‚ for example for lesser-known or rare species‚ then the analysis of the potential range may provide some tentative indication of species likely climatic adaptability. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
    Citation

    Booth, T. H. (2016). Estimating potential range and hence climatic adaptability in selected tree species. Forest Ecology and Management, 366, 175–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.02.009

  7. Booth, T. H. (2016). Identifying particular areas for potential seed collections for restoration plantings under climate change. Ecological Management and Restoration, 17, 228–234. https://doi.org/10.1111/emr.12219

    Ecological Management and Restoration
    Abstract

    A method to assist identifying potential sites for seed collections for restoration plantings is demonstrated using the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) and an example site near Albury (New South Wales). The mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) of the example site are determined using the ALA. Data on likely changes in MAT and MAP are accessed from the ‘Climate Change in Australia’ website. The ALA’s ‘define environmental envelope’ function is then used to identify areas currently experiencing conditions similar to the future climatic conditions projected for the site. Species distribution data in the ALA indicate locations where suitable provenances of the chosen species are likely to be present. In the case of trees‚ satellite images in the ALA can indicate whether isolated trees or extensive stands‚ that may be genetically diverse‚ exist at locations of interest. Shrublands‚ grasslands or wetlands may also be identified from the satellite images. The Monitoring‚ Evaluation‚ Reporting and Improvement Tool (MERIT) within the ALA can be used to identify existing trials that may already be using suitable provenances for the restoration site. Some considerations for provenance selection under climate change are outlined‚ as well as the advantages and limitations of using the ALA for this purpose. © 2016 Ecological Society of Australia and John Wiley & Sons Australia‚ Ltd
    Citation

    Booth, T. H. (2016). Identifying particular areas for potential seed collections for restoration plantings under climate change. Ecological Management and Restoration, 17, 228–234. https://doi.org/10.1111/emr.12219

  8. Borsa, P., Durand, J. D., Chen, W. J., Hubert, N., Muths, D., Mou-Tham, G., & Kulbicki, M. (2016). Comparative phylogeography of the western Indian Ocean reef fauna. Acta Oecologica, 72, 72–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2015.10.009

    Acta Oecologica
    Abstract

    Assessing patterns of connectivity at the community and population levels is relevant to marine resource management and conservation. The present study reviews this issue with a focus on the western Indian Ocean (WIO) biogeographic province. This part of the Indian Ocean holds more species than expected from current models of global reef fish species richness. In this study‚ checklists of reef fish species were examined to determine levels of endemism in each of 10 biogeographic provinces of the Indian Ocean. Results showed that the number of endemic species was higher in the WIO than in any other region of the Indian Ocean. Endemic species from the WIO on the average had a larger body size than elsewhere in the tropical Indian Ocean. This suggests an effect of peripheral speciation‚ as previously documented in the Hawaiian reef fish fauna‚ relative to other sites in the tropical western Pacific. To explore evolutionary dynamics of species across biogeographic provinces and infer mechanisms of speciation‚ we present and compare the results of phylogeographic surveys based on compilations of published and unpublished mitochondrial DNA sequences for 19 Indo-Pacific reef-associated fishes (rainbow grouper Cephalopholis argus‚ scrawled butterflyfish Chaetodon meyeri‚ bluespot mullet Crenimugil sp. A‚ humbug damselfish Dascyllus abudafur/Dascyllus aruanus‚ areolate grouper Epinephelus areolatus‚ blacktip grouper Epinephelus fasciatus‚ honeycomb grouper Epinephelus merra‚ bluespotted cornetfish Fistularia commersonii‚ cleaner wrasse Labroides sp. 1‚ longface emperor Lethrinus sp. A‚ bluestripe snapper Lutjanus kasmira‚ unicornfishes Naso brevirosris‚ Naso unicornis and Naso vlamingii‚ blue-spotted maskray Neotrygon kuhlii‚ largescale mullet Planiliza macrolepis‚ common parrotfish Scarus psicattus‚ crescent grunter Terapon jarbua‚ whitetip reef shark Triaenodon obelus) and three coastal Indo-West Pacific invertebrates (blue seastar Linckia laevigata‚ spiny lobster Panulirus homarus‚ small giant clam Tridacna maxima). Heterogeneous and often unbalanced sampling design‚ paucity of data in a number of cases‚ and among-species discrepancy in phylogeographic structure precluded any generalization regarding phylogeographic patterns. Nevertheless‚ the WIO might have been a source of haplotypes in some cases and it also harboured an endemic clade in at least one case. The present survey also highlighted likely cryptic species. This may eventually affect the accuracy of the current checklists of species‚ which form the basis of some of the recent advances in Indo-West Pacific marine ecology and biogeography. (C) 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Borsa, P., Durand, J. D., Chen, W. J., Hubert, N., Muths, D., Mou-Tham, G., & Kulbicki, M. (2016). Comparative phylogeography of the western Indian Ocean reef fauna. Acta Oecologica, 72, 72–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2015.10.009

  9. Briscoe, N. J., Kearney, M. R., Taylor, C. A., & Wintle, B. A. (2016). Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia. Global Change Biology, 22(7), 2425–2439. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13280

    Global Change Biology
    Abstract

    Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to‚ persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental conditions. Most forecasts of climate change refugia for species are based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) using long-term climate averages‚ projected to future climate scenarios. Limitations of such methods include the need to extrapolate into novel environments and uncertainty regarding the extent to which proximate variables included in the model capture processes driving distribution limits (and thus can be assumed to provide reliable predictions under new conditions). These limitations are well documented; however‚ their impact on the quality of climate refugia predictions is difficult to quantify. Here‚ we develop a detailed bioenergetics model for the koala. It indicates that range limits are driven by heat-induced water stress‚ with the timing of rainfall and heat waves limiting the koala in the warmer parts of its range. We compare refugia predictions from the bioenergetics model with predictions from a suite of competing correlative SDMs under a range of future climate scenarios. SDMs were fitted using combinations of long-term climate and weather extremes variables‚ to test how well each set of predictions captures the knowledge embedded in the bioenergetics model. Correlative models produced broadly similar predictions to the bioenergetics model across much of the species’ current range - with SDMs that included weather extremes showing highest congruence. However‚ predictions in some regions diverged significantly when projecting to future climates due to the breakdown in correlation between climate variables. We provide unique insight into the mechanisms driving koala distribution and illustrate the importance of subtle relationships between the timing of weather events‚ particularly rain relative to hot-spells‚ in driving species-climate relationships and distributions. By unpacking the mechanisms captured by correlative SDMs‚ we can increase our certainty in forecasts of climate change impacts on species.
    Citation

    Briscoe, N. J., Kearney, M. R., Taylor, C. A., & Wintle, B. A. (2016). Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia. Global Change Biology, 22(7), 2425–2439. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13280

  10. Burley, H. M., Mokany, K., Ferrier, S., Laffan, S. W., Williams, K. J., & Harwood, T. D. (2016). Macroecological scale effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions under environmental change. Ecology and Evolution, 6, 2579–2593. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2036

    Ecology and Evolution
    Abstract

    Conserving different spatial and temporal dimensions of biological diversity is considered necessary for maintaining ecosystem functions under predicted global change scenarios. Recent work has shifted the focus from spatially local (alpha-diversity) to macroecological scales (beta- and gamma-diversity)‚ emphasizing links between macroecological biodiversity and ecosystem functions (MB-EF relationships). However‚ before the outcomes of MB-EF analyses can be useful to real-world decisions‚ empirical modeling needs to be developed for natural ecosystems‚ incorporating a broader range of data inputs‚ environmental change scenarios‚ underlying mechanisms‚ and predictions. We outline the key conceptual and technical challenges currently faced in developing such models and in testing and calibrating the relationships assumed in these models using data from real ecosystems. These challenges are explored in relation to two potential MB-EF mechanisms: "macroecological complementarity" and "spatiotemporal compensation." Several regions have been sufficiently well studied over space and time to robustly test these mechanisms by combining cutting-edge spatiotemporal methods with remotely sensed data‚ including plant community data sets in Australia‚ Europe‚ and North America. Assessing empirical MB-EF relationships at broad spatiotemporal scales will be crucial in ensuring these macroecological processes can be adequately considered in the management of biodiversity and ecosystem functions under global change.
    Citation

    Burley, H. M., Mokany, K., Ferrier, S., Laffan, S. W., Williams, K. J., & Harwood, T. D. (2016). Macroecological scale effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions under environmental change. Ecology and Evolution, 6, 2579–2593. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2036

  11. Cardillo, M., & Warren, D. L. (2016). Analysing patterns of spatial and niche overlap among species at multiple resolutions. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25, 951–963. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12455

    Global Ecology and Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim Analyses of spatial overlap in species distributions are frequently used to test a range of ecological and evolutionary hypotheses‚ from the role of competition in community assembly to the geography of speciation. Most studies quantify overlap at one spatial resolution. Here we explore the effects of measuring spatial and niche overlap patterns for the same clade (Banksia) at multiple resolutions.
    Location Australia.
    Methods We quantify overlap among species using broad overlap of species range polygons‚ proximity of occurrence points and co-occurrence within small survey plots. We compare overlap patterns with null models using age-range correlations and the frequency of sympatric sister species. We then use similar methods to examine patterns of overlap in environmental niche dimensions.
    Results Banksia species show a wide range of overlap values based on range polygons and point proximities‚ but very low levels of co-occurrence at the local scale. Intercepts of age-range correlations point to higher levels of overlap among recently diverged species than expected. However‚ comparing the frequency of sympatric sister species with an evolutionary null model supports a prevailing allopatric mode of speciation. In many cases‚ niche overlap between species exceeds that expected from phylogenetic relatedness or spatial overlap alone.
    Main conclusions Patterns of broad geographical overlap among Banksia species support a predominantly allopatric mode of speciation‚ combined with post-speciation range drift. There is more evidence for niche conservatism than for rapid niche divergence among closely related species. This pattern is consistent with broad-scale geomorphic and landscape complexity as a driver of plant speciation in south-west Australia. It is less consistent with finer-scale mechanisms of species divergence such as fire mosaics‚ or with ecological divergence in sympatry. Analysis of species overlap patterns at different resolutions is a useful approach for revealing the multiple ecological and historical factors that influence species distributions.
    Citation

    Cardillo, M., & Warren, D. L. (2016). Analysing patterns of spatial and niche overlap among species at multiple resolutions. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25, 951–963. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12455

  12. Catford, J. A., Baumgartner, J. B., Vesk, P. A., White, M., Buckley, Y. M., & McCarthy, M. A. (2016). Disentangling the four demographic dimensions of species invasiveness. Journal of Ecology, 104, 1745–1758. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12627

    Journal of Ecology
    Abstract

    A definitive list of invasive species traits remains elusive‚ perhaps due to inconsistent ways of identifying invasive species. Invasive species are typically identified using one or more of four demographic criteria (local abundance‚ geographic range‚ environmental range‚ spread rate)‚ referred to here as the demographic dimensions of invasiveness. In 112 studies comparing invasive and non-invasive plant traits‚ all 15 combinations of the four demographic dimensions were used to identify invasive species; 22% of studies identified invasive species solely by high abundance‚ while 25% ignored abundance. We used demographic data of 340 alien herbs classified as invasive or non-invasive in Victoria‚ Australia‚ to test whether the demographic dimensions are independent and which dimensions influence invasive species listing in practice. Species’ abundances‚ spread rates and range sizes were independent. Relative abundance best explained the invasiveness classification. However‚ invasive and non-invasive species each spanned the full range of each demographic dimension‚ indicating that no dimension clearly separates invasive from non-invasive species. Graminoids with longer minimum residence times were more frequently classified as invasive‚ as were forbs occurring near edges of native vegetation fragments.Synthesis. Conflating multiple forms of invasiveness‚ by not distinguishing invasive species that are identified using different demographic criteria‚ may obscure traits possessed by particular subsets of invasive species. Traits promoting high abundance likely differ from those enabling fast spread and broad ranges. Examining traits linked with the four demographic dimensions of invasiveness will highlight species at risk of becoming dominant‚ spreading quickly or occupying large ranges.
    Citation

    Catford, J. A., Baumgartner, J. B., Vesk, P. A., White, M., Buckley, Y. M., & McCarthy, M. A. (2016). Disentangling the four demographic dimensions of species invasiveness. Journal of Ecology, 104, 1745–1758. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12627

  13. Christmas, M. J., Biffin, E., Breed, M. F., & Lowe, A. J. (2016). Finding needles in a genomic haystack: targeted capture identifies clear signatures of selection in a nonmodel plant species. Molecular Ecology, 25, 4216–4233. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.13750

    Molecular Ecology
    Abstract

    Teasing apart neutral and adaptive genomic processes and identifying loci that are targets of selection can be difficult‚ particularly for nonmodel species that lack a reference genome. However‚ identifying such loci and the factors driving selection have the potential to greatly assist conservation and restoration practices‚ especially for the management of species in the face of contemporary and future climate change. Here‚ we focus on assessing adaptive genomic variation within a nonmodel plant species‚ the narrow-leaf hopbush (Dodonaea viscosa ssp. angustissima)‚ commonly used for restoration in Australia. We used a hybrid-capture target enrichment approach to selectively sequence 970 genes across 17 populations along a latitudinal gradient from 30 degrees S to 36 degrees S. We analysed 8462 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for FST outliers as well as associations with environmental variables. Using three different methods‚ we found 55 SNPs with significant correlations to temperature and water availability‚ and 38 SNPs to elevation. Genes containing SNPs identified as under environmental selection were diverse‚ including aquaporin and abscisic acid genes‚ as well as genes with ontologies relating to responses to environmental stressors such as water deprivation and salt stress. Redundancy analysis demonstrated that only a small proportion of the total genetic variance was explained by environmental variables. We demonstrate that selection has led to clines in allele frequencies in a number of functional genes‚ including those linked to leaf shape and stomatal variation‚ which have been previously observed to vary along the sampled environmental cline. Using our approach‚ gene regions subject to environmental selection can be readily identified for nonmodel organisms.
    Citation

    Christmas, M. J., Biffin, E., Breed, M. F., & Lowe, A. J. (2016). Finding needles in a genomic haystack: targeted capture identifies clear signatures of selection in a nonmodel plant species. Molecular Ecology, 25, 4216–4233. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.13750

  14. Curtis, E. M., Gollan, J., Murray, B. R., & Leigh, A. (2016). Native microhabitats better predict tolerance to warming than latitudinal macro-climatic variables in arid-zone plants. Journal of Biogeography, 43, 1156–1165. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12713

    Journal of Biogeography
    abstract
    Citation

    Curtis, E. M., Gollan, J., Murray, B. R., & Leigh, A. (2016). Native microhabitats better predict tolerance to warming than latitudinal macro-climatic variables in arid-zone plants. Journal of Biogeography, 43, 1156–1165. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12713

  15. de Boer, H. J., Drake, P. L., Wendt, E., Price, C., Schulze, E. D., Turner, N. C., Nicolle, D., & Veneklaas, E. J. (2016). Over-investment in leaf venation relaxes morphological constraints on photosynthesis in eucalypts. Plant Physiology, 172(4), 2286–2299. https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.16.01313

    Plant Physiology
    Abstract

    The primary function of leaf venation is to supply the mesophyll with water that evaporates when stomata are open to allow CO2 uptake for photosynthesis. Theoretical analyses suggest that water is optimally distributed in the mesophyll when the lateral distance between veins (dx) is equal to the distance from these veins to the epidermis (dy)‚ expressed as dx:dy≈1. Although this theory is supported by observations on many derived angiosperms‚ we hypothesise that plants in arid environments may reduce dx:dy below unity owing to climate-specific functional adaptations of increased leaf thickness and increased vein density. To test our hypothesis we assembled leaf hydraulic‚ morphological and photosynthetic traits of 63 species from the Eucalyptus and Corymbia genera (termed eucalypts) along an aridity gradient in southwestern Australia. We inferred the potential gas exchange advantage of reducing dx beyond dy using a model that links leaf morphology and hydraulics to photosynthesis. Our observations reveal that eucalypts in arid environments have thick amphistomatous leaves with high vein densities‚ resulting in dx:dy ratios that range from 1.6 to 0.15 along the aridity gradient. Our model suggests that as leaves become thicker‚ the effect of reducing dx beyond dy is to offset the reduction in leaf gas exchange that would result from maintaining dx:dy at unity. This apparent over-investment in leaf venation may be explained from the selective pressure of aridity‚ under which traits associated with long leaf lifespan‚ high hydraulic and thermal capacitances‚ and high potential rates of leaf water transport confer a competitive advantage.
    Citation

    de Boer, H. J., Drake, P. L., Wendt, E., Price, C., Schulze, E. D., Turner, N. C., Nicolle, D., & Veneklaas, E. J. (2016). Over-investment in leaf venation relaxes morphological constraints on photosynthesis in eucalypts. Plant Physiology, 172(4), 2286–2299. https://doi.org/10.1104/pp.16.01313

  16. Fromont, J., Wahab, M. A. A., Gomez, O., Ekins, M., Grol, M., & Hooper, J. N. A. (2016). Patterns of sponge biodiversity in the Pilbara, Northwestern Australia. Diversity, 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/d8040021

    Diversity
    Diversity
    Abstract

    This study assessed the biodiversity of sponges within the Integrated Marine and Coastal Regionalisation for Australia (IMCRA) bioregions of the Pilbara using datasets amalgamated from the Western Australian Museum and the Atlas of Living Australia. The Pilbara accounts for a total of 1164 Linnean and morphospecies. A high level of "apparent endemism" was recorded with 78% of species found in only one of six bioregions‚ with less than 10% confirmed as widely distributed. The Ningaloo‚ Pilbara Nearshore and Pilbara Offshore bioregions are biodiversity hotspots (>250 species) and are recognised as having the highest conservation value‚ followed by North West Shelf containing 232 species. Species compositions differed between bioregions‚ with those that are less spatially separated sharing more species. Notably‚ the NorthWest Province bioregion (110 species) exhibited the most distinct species composition‚ highlighting it as a unique habitat within the Pilbara. While sponge biodiversity is apparently high‚ incomplete sampling effort for the region was identified‚ with only two sampling events recorded for the Central West Transition bioregion. Furthermore‚ only 15% of records in the dataset are presently described (Linnean) species‚ highlighting the continuing need for taxonomic expertise for the conservation and management of marine biodiversity resources. © 2016 by the authors.
    Citation

    Fromont, J., Wahab, M. A. A., Gomez, O., Ekins, M., Grol, M., & Hooper, J. N. A. (2016). Patterns of sponge biodiversity in the Pilbara, Northwestern Australia. Diversity, 8. https://doi.org/10.3390/d8040021

  17. Gueta, T., & Carmel, Y. (2016). Quantifying the value of user-level data cleaning for big data: A case study using mammal distribution models. Ecological Informatics, 34, 139–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2016.06.001

    Ecological Informatics
    Abstract

    The recent availability of species occurrence data from numerous sources‚ standardized and connected within a single portal‚ has the potential to answer fundamental ecological questions. These aggregated big biodiversity databases are prone to numerous data errors and biases. The data-user is responsible for identifying these errors and assessing if the data are suitable for a given purpose. Complex technical skills are increasingly required for handling and cleaning biodiversity data‚ while biodiversity scientists possessing these skills are rare. Here‚ we estimate the effect of user-level data cleaning on species distribution model (SDM) performance. We implement several simple and easy-to-execute data cleaning procedures‚ and evaluate the change in SDM performance. Additionally‚ we examine if a certain group of species is more sensitive to the use of erroneous or unsuitable data. The cleaning procedures used in this research improved SDM performance significantly‚ across all scales and for all performance measures. The largest improvement in distribution models following data cleaning was for small mammals (1 g-100 g). Data cleaning at the user level is crucial when using aggregated occurrence data‚ and facilitating its implementation is a key factor in order to advance data-intensive biodiversity studies. Adopting a more comprehensive approach for incorporating data cleaning as part of data analysis‚ will not only improve the quality of biodiversity data‚ but will also impose a more appropriate usage of such data. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
    Citation

    Gueta, T., & Carmel, Y. (2016). Quantifying the value of user-level data cleaning for big data: A case study using mammal distribution models. Ecological Informatics, 34, 139–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2016.06.001

  18. Jordan, G. J., Harrison, P. A., Worth, J. R. P., Williamson, G. J., & Kirkpatrick, J. B. (2016). Palaeoendemic plants provide evidence for persistence of open, well-watered vegetation since the Cretaceous. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25, 127–140. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12389

    Global Ecology and Biogeography
    abstract
    Citation

    Jordan, G. J., Harrison, P. A., Worth, J. R. P., Williamson, G. J., & Kirkpatrick, J. B. (2016). Palaeoendemic plants provide evidence for persistence of open, well-watered vegetation since the Cretaceous. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25, 127–140. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12389

  19. Jupp, T., Fitzsimons, J., Carr, B., & See, P. (2016). New partnerships for managing large desert landscapes: experiences from the Martu Living Deserts Project. The Rangeland Journal. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ15047

    The Rangeland Journal
    abstract
    Citation

    Jupp, T., Fitzsimons, J., Carr, B., & See, P. (2016). New partnerships for managing large desert landscapes: experiences from the Martu Living Deserts Project. The Rangeland Journal. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ15047

  20. Le Feuvre, M. C., Dempster, T., Shelley, J. J., & Swearer, S. E. (2016). Macroecological relationships reveal conservation hotspots and extinction-prone species in Australia’s freshwater fishes. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25, 176–186. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12397

    Global Ecology and Biogeography
    abstract
    Citation

    Le Feuvre, M. C., Dempster, T., Shelley, J. J., & Swearer, S. E. (2016). Macroecological relationships reveal conservation hotspots and extinction-prone species in Australia’s freshwater fishes. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 25, 176–186. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12397

  21. Knuckey, C. G., Van Etten, E. J. B., & Doherty, T. S. (2016). Effects of long-term fire exclusion and frequent fire on plant community composition: A case study from semi-arid shrublands. Austral Ecology, 41, 964–975. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12388

    Austral Ecology
    Abstract

    Time since last fire and fire frequency are strong determinants of plant community composition in fire-prone landscapes. Our study aimed to establish the influence of time since last fire and fire frequency on plant community composition and diversity of a south-west Australian semi-arid shrubland. We employed a space-for-time approach using four fire age classes: ‘young’‚ 8–15 years since last fire; ‘medium’‚ 16–34; ‘old’‚ 35–50; and ‘very old’‚ 51–100; and three fire frequency classes: burnt once‚ twice and three times within the last 50 years. Species diversity was compared using one-way ANOVA and species composition using PERMANOVA. Soil and climatic variables were included as covariables to partition underlying environmental drivers. We found that time since last fire influenced species richness‚ diversity and composition. Specifically‚ we recorded a late successional transition from woody seeders to long-lived‚ arid-zone‚ resprouting shrub species. Fire frequency did not influence species richness and diversity but did influence species composition via a reduction in cover of longer-lived resprouter species – presumably because of a reduced ability to replenish epicormic buds and/or sufficient starch stores. The distinct floristic composition of old and very old habitat‚ and the vulnerability of these areas to wildfires‚ indicate that these areas are ecologically important and management should seek to preserve them. © 2016 Ecological Society of Australia
    Citation

    Knuckey, C. G., Van Etten, E. J. B., & Doherty, T. S. (2016). Effects of long-term fire exclusion and frequent fire on plant community composition: A case study from semi-arid shrublands. Austral Ecology, 41, 964–975. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12388

  22. Łukowiak, M. (2016). Fossil and modern sponge fauna of southern Australia and adjacent regions compared: interpretation, evolutionary and biogeographic significance of the late Eocene ‘soft’ sponges. Contributions to Zoology, 85(1), 13–35. https://doi.org/10.1163/18759866-08501002

    Contributions to Zoology
    abstract
    Citation

    Łukowiak, M. (2016). Fossil and modern sponge fauna of southern Australia and adjacent regions compared: interpretation, evolutionary and biogeographic significance of the late Eocene ‘soft’ sponges. Contributions to Zoology, 85(1), 13–35. https://doi.org/10.1163/18759866-08501002

  23. Martin, G. A., Yanez-Arenas, C., Roberts, B. J., Chen, C., Plowright, R. K., Webb, R. J., & Skerratt, L. F. (2016). Climatic suitability influences species specific abundance patterns of Australian flying foxes and risk of Hendra virus spillover. One Health, 2, 115–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2016.07.004

    One Health
    One Health
    Abstract

    Hendra virus is a paramyxovirus of Australian flying fox bats. It was first detected in August 1994‚ after the death of 20 horses and one human. Since then it has occurred regularly within a portion of the geographical distribution of all Australian flying fox (fruit bat) species. There is‚ however‚ little understanding about which species are most likely responsible for spillover‚ or why spillover does not occur in other areas occupied by reservoir and spillover hosts. Using ecological niche models of the four flying fox species we were able to identify which species are most likely linked to spillover events using the concept of distance to the niche centroid of each species. With this novel approach we found that 20 out of 27 events occur disproportionately closer to the niche centroid of two species (P. alecto and P. conspicillatus). With linear regressions we found a negative relationship between distance to the niche centroid and abundance of these two species. Thus‚ we suggest that the bioclimatic niche of these two species is likely driving the spatial pattern of spillover of Hendra virus into horses and ultimately humans.
    Citation

    Martin, G. A., Yanez-Arenas, C., Roberts, B. J., Chen, C., Plowright, R. K., Webb, R. J., & Skerratt, L. F. (2016). Climatic suitability influences species specific abundance patterns of Australian flying foxes and risk of Hendra virus spillover. One Health, 2, 115–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2016.07.004

  24. Menge, E. O., Stobo-Wilson, A., Oliveira, S. L. J., & Lawes, M. J. (2016). The potential distribution of the woody weed Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T. Aiton (Asclepiadaceae) in Australia. The Rangeland Journal, 38, 35–46. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ15081

    The Rangeland Journal
    Abstract

    The potential spread of any invasive plant is a central concern in weed risk assessment. Calotropis procera is wind dispersed and forms extensive monospecific stands that reduce the productivity of pastoral land‚ but its potential distribution and drivers of its spread are not well known. Using maximum entropy methodology‚ we modelled current and future potential distributions of C. procera in Australia. Occurrence data (n≤5976 presence records) were collated from regional databases and a field survey. Of a set of ’independent’ environmental correlates‚ those that best accounted for the observed distribution of C. procera in Australia were distance (km) to roads‚ average annual rainfall (mm)‚ mean temperature (°C)‚ average wind speed (km/h)‚ beef density and vegetation type‚ in that order of importance. Current and potential distribution of C. procera was best explained by interactions between anthropogenic disturbance and climatic factors‚ all underpinned by species characteristics. Models were based on a grid cell size of 5km×5km and model performance was good (mean AUC≤0.916; s.d.≤0.014; AUC≤area under the curve; perfect fit≤1). The model showed that C. procera has not saturated its current potential distribution. Models of future spread derived from climate change projections‚ based on global circulation models in the ’Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 emissions scenario for 2035’‚ show the area suitable for C. procera will increase‚ increasing the risk the weed poses. Range expansion will occur into all three states surrounding the Northern Territory‚ but mostly into the north-eastern border regions of Western Australia and north-western Queensland. Joint management of rubber bush at a regional scale across jurisdictions‚ is urgently advised to avoid future spread of rubber bush and further reductions in pastoral productivity. © Australian Rangeland Society 2016.
    Citation

    Menge, E. O., Stobo-Wilson, A., Oliveira, S. L. J., & Lawes, M. J. (2016). The potential distribution of the woody weed Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T. Aiton (Asclepiadaceae) in Australia. The Rangeland Journal, 38, 35–46. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ15081

  25. Mo, M. (2016). The Beach Stone-Curlew (Esacus magnisrostris) in the Sydney Basin and South East Corner Bioregions of New South Wales. Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales, 138, 69–81.
    https://openjournals.library.sydney.edu.au/index.php/LIN/article/view/11414

    Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales
    abstract
    Citation

    Mo, M. (2016). The Beach Stone-Curlew (Esacus magnisrostris) in the Sydney Basin and South East Corner Bioregions of New South Wales. Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales, 138, 69–81.

  26. Nylinder, S., Razafimandimbison, S. G., & Anderberg, A. A. (2016). From the Namib around the world: biogeography of the Inuleae-Plucheinae (Asteraceae). Journal of Biogeography, 43, 1705–1716. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12764

    Journal of Biogeography
    abstract
    Citation

    Nylinder, S., Razafimandimbison, S. G., & Anderberg, A. A. (2016). From the Namib around the world: biogeography of the Inuleae-Plucheinae (Asteraceae). Journal of Biogeography, 43, 1705–1716. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12764

  27. Oliver, P. M., & McDonald, P. J. (2016). Young relicts and old relicts: A novel palaeoendemic vertebrate from the Australian central uplands. Royal Society Open Science, 3. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160018

    Royal Society Open Science
    Abstract

    Climatic change‚ and in particular aridification‚ has played a dominant role in shaping Southern Hemisphere biotas since the mid-Neogene. In Australia‚ ancient and geologically stable ranges within the vast arid zone have functioned as refugia for populations of mesic taxa extirpated from surrounding areas‚ yet the extent to which relicts may be linked to major aridification events before or after the Pliocene has not been examined in detail. Here we use molecular phylogenetic and morphological data to show that isolated populations of saxicoline geckos in the genus Oedura from the Australian Central Uplands‚ formerly confounded as a single taxon‚ actually comprise two divergent species with contrasting histories of isolation. The recently resurrected Oedura cincta has close relatives occurring elsewhere in the Australian arid biomes with estimated divergence dates concentrated in the early Pliocene. A new taxon (described herein) diverged from all extant Oedura much earlier‚ well before the end of the Miocene. A review of data for Central Uplands endemic vertebrates shows that for most (including Oedura cincta)‚ gene flow with other parts of Australia probably occurred until at least the very late Miocene or Pliocene. There are‚ however‚ a small number of palaeoendemic taxa-often ecologically specialized forms-that show evidence of having persisted since earlier intensification of aridity in the late Miocene. © 2016 The Authors.
    Citation

    Oliver, P. M., & McDonald, P. J. (2016). Young relicts and old relicts: A novel palaeoendemic vertebrate from the Australian central uplands. Royal Society Open Science, 3. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160018

  28. Pedler, R. D., Brandle, R., Read, J. L., Southgate, R., Bird, P., & Moseby, K. E. (2016). Rabbit biocontrol and landscape-scale recovery of threatened desert mammals. Conservation Biology, 30, 774–782. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12684

    Conservation Biology
    Abstract

    Funding for species conservation is insufficient to meet the current challenges facing global biodiversity‚ yet many programs use expensive single-species recovery actions and neglect broader management that addresses threatening processes. Arid Australia has the world’s worst modern mammalian extinction record‚ largely attributable to competition from introduced herbivores‚ particularly European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and predation by feral cats (Felis catus) and foxes (Vulpes vulpes). The biological control agent rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) was introduced to Australia in 1995 and resulted in dramatic‚ widespread rabbit suppression. We compared the area of occupancy and extent of occurrence of 4 extant species of small mammals before and after RHDV outbreak‚ relative to rainfall‚ sampling effort‚ and rabbit and predator populations. Despite low rainfall during the first 14 years after RHDV‚ 2 native rodents listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)‚ the dusky hopping-mouse (Notomys fuscus) and plains mouse (Pseudomys australis)‚ increased their extent of occurrence by 241-365%. A threatened marsupial micropredator‚ the crest-tailed mulgara (Dasycercus cristicauda)‚ underwent a 70-fold increase in extent of occurrence and a 20-fold increase in area of occupancy. Both bottom-up and top-down trophic effects were attributed to RHDV‚ namely decreased competition for food resources and declines in rabbit-dependent predators. Based on these sustained increases‚ these 3 previously threatened species now qualify for threat-category downgrading on the IUCN Red List. These recoveries are on a scale rarely documented in mammals and give impetus to programs aimed at targeted use of RHDV in Australia‚ rather than simply employing top-down threat-based management of arid ecosystems. Conservation programs that take big-picture approaches to addressing threatening processes over large spatial scales should be prioritized to maximize return from scarce conservation funding. Further‚ these should be coupled with long-term ecological monitoring‚ a critical tool in detecting and understanding complex ecosystem change.
    Citation

    Pedler, R. D., Brandle, R., Read, J. L., Southgate, R., Bird, P., & Moseby, K. E. (2016). Rabbit biocontrol and landscape-scale recovery of threatened desert mammals. Conservation Biology, 30, 774–782. https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12684

  29. Porfirio, L. L., Harris, R. M. B., Stojanovic, D., Webb, M. H., & Mackey, B. (2016). Projected direct and indirect effects of climate change on the Swift Parrot, an endangered migratory species. Emu, 116, 273–283. https://doi.org/10.1071/Mu15094

    Emu
    Emu
    Abstract

    Assessing future changes in the suitability of the climate niche for interacting species across different trophic levels can identify direct and indirect effects of climate change that may be missed using single-species approaches. We use ensembles of species distribution models based on a dynamically down-scaled regional climate model to project the future suitability of climate for the Swift Parrot (Lathamus discolor)‚ its primary food and habitat resources (Tasmanian Blue Gum (Eucalyptus globulus) and Swamp Gum (E. ovata))‚ and an introduced nest predator‚ the Sugar Glider (Petaurus breviceps). These results are combined with layers representing mature forest and fire danger to identify locations that may act as refuges for the Swift Parrot from fire‚ deforestation and predation under baseline and future climates. Almost a quarter of the nesting habitat of Swift Parrots is projected to become climatically unsuitable by the end of the 21st century‚ but large areas may remain climatically suitable for both Swift Parrots and their food trees. However‚ loss of forests and the presence of Sugar Gliders are likely to limit the availability of high-quality habitat. Offshore islands that the Sugar Glider is unable to colonise or where future climate is not projected to be suitable for the Sugar Glider may be the only places‚ in the near future‚ where the Swift Parrot will be protected from nest predation by this introduced species.
    Citation

    Porfirio, L. L., Harris, R. M. B., Stojanovic, D., Webb, M. H., & Mackey, B. (2016). Projected direct and indirect effects of climate change on the Swift Parrot, an endangered migratory species. Emu, 116, 273–283. https://doi.org/10.1071/Mu15094

  30. Ramirez-Cabral, N. Y. Z., Kumar, L., & Taylor, S. (2016). Crop niche modeling projects major shifts in common bean growing areas. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 218–219, 102–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.12.002

    Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    Abstract

    Crops experience different climate stresses during development. The magnitude of damage will depend on the phenological stage of the crop and the stress duration. Climate change could intensify some or all of these stresses‚ thus negatively impacting agriculture. An assessment of staple crop productivity‚ quality and climatically suitable areas under climate change conditions is necessary to undertake any global initiatives to tackle food security issues. The common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is a staple crop and the main source of proteins and nutrients in Africa and Latin America. The purpose of this study is to develop a process-oriented niche model to assess the impacts of climate change on the current and future potential distribution of common bean and to use this model to investigate the changes in heat‚ cold‚ dry and wet stresses under climate change. We used A2 and A1B emission scenarios and two different global climate models‚ CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H‚ for the years 2050 and 2100. Our results indicate future climate conditions are more favorable for common bean cultivation in the Northern Hemisphere‚ but are less favorable in the Southern Hemisphere. Heat and dry stresses are the main factors limiting and reducing common bean distribution under current and future projected conditions. Africa and Latin America are projected to decrease with respect to suitability for common bean cultivation. The model projections indicate that a shift in the common bean productive areas is highly likely with a loss of suitability of the current common bean cultivation areas and an increase in cold regions such as Canada‚ the Nordic countries and Russia. The results indicate the likelihood of changes in climatic suitability and the distribution of common bean at a global scale under a future climate‚ which will affect regions where this legume is a staple crop and an important source of household income. Regions in the Northern Hemisphere could take advantage of the increase in suitability by increasing the production and exportation of this grain. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
    Citation

    Ramirez-Cabral, N. Y. Z., Kumar, L., & Taylor, S. (2016). Crop niche modeling projects major shifts in common bean growing areas. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 218–219, 102–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.12.002

  31. Reichgelt, T., Kennedy, E. M., Jones, W. A., Jones, D. T., & Lee, D. E. (2016). Contrasting palaeoenvironments of the mid/late Miocene Dunedin Volcano, southern New Zealand: Climate or topography? Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 441, 696–703. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.10.029

    Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
    Abstract

    At the mid/late Miocene boundary‚ a northward shift occurred in the Subtropical Front neighbouring the New Zealand continental landmass. The terrestrial palaeoenvironment of New Zealand concurrently underwent a period of cooling. The Dunedin Volcanic Group in southern New Zealand spans the mid/late Miocene boundary and the sedimentary deposits from Kaikorai Valley and Double Hill within this group contain diverse and well-preserved floral assemblages. We used terrestrial palaeoclimate proxies CLAMP (Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program) and BA (Bioclimatic Analysis) to determine the paleoenvironment at southern mid-latitudes during the mid/late Miocene transition. Our results indicate that the mid/late Miocene climate of the Dunedin Volcano was warm-temperate to subtropical (mean annual temperature [MAT]: \textasciitilde 17-19 °C) at Double Hill‚ similar to modern coastal Queensland‚ and cool- to warm-temperate (MAT: \textasciitilde 12-14 °C) at Kaikorai Valley‚ similar to modern northern New Zealand. Winter temperatures at Kaikorai Valley were distinctly cooler (\textasciitilde 6-8 °C). Differing aspect (i.e. north vs south facing) may have played a part in determining solar radiation‚ particularly in an area of high relief‚ such as the Dunedin Volcano. Because Kaikorai Valley was situated facing south and Double Hill facing north‚ the two sites would have received differing radiative fluxes‚ particularly in winter‚ thereby possibly influencing the local environment‚ biota‚ and potentially also the palaeoclimate signal produced by floral proxies. This study provides evidence for the temperature decline in terrestrial palaeoenvironments at mid-latitudes caused by the northward movement of the Subtropical Front and strengthening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current during the mid/late Miocene. © 2015 Elsevier B.V..
    Citation

    Reichgelt, T., Kennedy, E. M., Jones, W. A., Jones, D. T., & Lee, D. E. (2016). Contrasting palaeoenvironments of the mid/late Miocene Dunedin Volcano, southern New Zealand: Climate or topography? Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 441, 696–703. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.10.029

  32. Shabani, F., Kumar, L., & Ahmadi, M. (2016). A comparison of absolute performance of different correlative and mechanistic species distribution models in an independent area. Ecology and Evolution, 6, 5973–5986. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2332

    Ecology and Evolution
    Abstract

    To investigate the comparative abilities of six different bioclimatic models in an independent area‚ utilizing the distribution of eight different species available at a global scale and in Australia. Global scale and Australia. We tested a variety of bioclimatic models for eight different plant species employing five discriminatory correlative species distribution models (SDMs) including Generalized Linear Model (GLM)‚ MaxEnt‚ Random Forest (RF)‚ Boosted Regression Tree (BRT)‚ Bioclim‚ together with CLIMEX (CL) as a mechanistic niche model. These models were fitted using a training dataset of available global data‚ but with the exclusion of Australian locations. The capabilities of these techniques in projecting suitable climate‚ based on independent records for these species in Australia‚ were compared. Thus‚ Australia is not used to calibrate the models and therefore it is as an independent area regarding geographic locations. To assess and compare performance‚ we utilized the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC)‚ true skill statistic (TSS)‚ and fractional predicted areas for all SDMs. In addition‚ we assessed satisfactory agreements between the outputs of the six different bioclimatic models‚ for all eight species in Australia. The modeling method impacted on potential distribution predictions under current climate. However‚ the utilization of sensitivity and the fractional predicted areas showed that GLM‚ MaxEnt‚ Bioclim‚ and CL had the highest sensitivity for Australian climate conditions. Bioclim calculated the highest fractional predicted area of an independent area‚ while RF and BRT were poor. For many applications‚ it is difficult to decide which bioclimatic model to use. This research shows that variable results are obtained using different SDMs in an independent area. This research also shows that the SDMs produce different results for different species; for example‚ Bioclim may not be good for one species but works better for other species. Also‚ when projecting a “large” number of species into novel environments or in an independent area‚ the selection of the “best” model/technique is often less reliable than an ensemble modeling approach. In addition‚ it is vital to understand the accuracy of SDMs’ predictions. Further‚ while TSS‚ together with fractional predicted areas‚ are appropriate tools for the measurement of accuracy between model results‚ particularly when undertaking projections on an independent area‚ AUC has been proved not to be. Our study highlights that each one of these models (CL‚ Bioclim‚ GLM‚ MaxEnt‚ BRT‚ and RF) provides slightly different results on projections and that it may be safer to use an ensemble of models. © 2016 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
    Citation

    Shabani, F., Kumar, L., & Ahmadi, M. (2016). A comparison of absolute performance of different correlative and mechanistic species distribution models in an independent area. Ecology and Evolution, 6, 5973–5986. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2332

  33. Thi Tran, L., Stoeckl, N., Esparon, M., & Jarvis, D. (2016). If climate change means more intense and more frequent drought, what will that mean for agricultural production? A case study in Northern Australia. Australasian Journal of Environmental Management, 23, 281–297. https://doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2016.1152202

    Australasian Journal of Environmental Management
    abstract
    Citation

    Thi Tran, L., Stoeckl, N., Esparon, M., & Jarvis, D. (2016). If climate change means more intense and more frequent drought, what will that mean for agricultural production? A case study in Northern Australia. Australasian Journal of Environmental Management, 23, 281–297. https://doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2016.1152202

  34. Tindall, M. L., Thomson, F. J., Laffan, S. W., & Moles, A. T. (2016). Is there a latitudinal gradient in the proportion of species with spinescence? Journal of Plant Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtw031

    Journal of Plant Ecology
    abstract
    Citation

    Tindall, M. L., Thomson, F. J., Laffan, S. W., & Moles, A. T. (2016). Is there a latitudinal gradient in the proportion of species with spinescence? Journal of Plant Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtw031

  35. Tingley, R., Thompson, M. B., Hartley, S., & Chapple, D. G. (2016). Patterns of niche filling and expansion across the invaded ranges of an Australian lizard. Ecography, 39, 270–280. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01576

    Ecography
    Ecography
    Abstract

    Studies of realized niche shifts in alien species typically ignore the potential effects of intraspecific niche variation and different invaded-range environments on niche lability. We incorporate our detailed knowledge of the native-range source populations and global introduction history of the delicate skink Lampropholis delicata to examine intraspecific variation in realized niche expansion and unfilling‚ and investigate how alternative niche modelling approaches are affected by that variation. We analyzed the realized niche dynamics of L. delicata using an ordination method‚ ecological niche models (ENMs)‚ and occurrence records from 1) Australia (native range)‚ 2) New Zealand‚ 3) Hawaii‚ 4) the two distinct native-range clades that were the sources for the New Zealand and Hawaii introductions‚ and 5) the species’ global range (including Lord Howe Island‚ Australia). We found a gradient of realized niche change across the invaded ranges of L. delicata: niche stasis on Lord Howe Island‚ niche unfilling in New Zealand (16%)‚ and niche unfilling (87%) and expansion (14%) in Hawaii. ENMs fitted to native-range data generally identified suitable climatic conditions at sites where the species has established non-native populations‚ whereas ENMs based on native-range source clades and non-native populations had lower spatial transferability. Our results suggest that the extent to which realized niches are maintained during invasion does not depend on species-level traits. When realized niche shifts are predominately due to niche unfilling‚ fully capturing species’ responses along climatic gradients by basing ENMs on native distributions may be more important for accurate invasion forecasts than incorporating phylogenetic differentiation‚ or integrating niche changes in the invaded range.
    Citation

    Tingley, R., Thompson, M. B., Hartley, S., & Chapple, D. G. (2016). Patterns of niche filling and expansion across the invaded ranges of an Australian lizard. Ecography, 39, 270–280. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01576

  36. Vanderduys, E. P., Reside, A. E., Grice, A., & Rechetelo, J. (2016). Addressing potential cumulative impacts of development on threatened species: The case of the endangered black-throated finch. PLoS ONE, 11. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0148485

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    Where threatened biodiversity is adversely affected by development‚ policies often state that "no net loss" should be the goal and biodiversity offsetting is one mechanism available to achieve this. However‚ developments are often approved on an ad hoc basis and cumulative impacts are not sufficiently examined. We demonstrate the potential for serious threat to an endangered subspecies when multiple developments are planned. We modelled the distribution of the black-throated finch (Poephila cincta cincta) using bioclimatic data and Queensland’s Regional Ecosystem classification. We overlaid granted‚ extant extractive and exploratory mining tenures within the known and modelled ranges of black-throated finches to examine the level of incipient threat to this subspecies in central Queensland‚ Australia. Our models indicate that more than half of the remaining P. cincta cincta habitat is currently under extractive or exploratory tenure. Therefore‚ insufficient habitat exists to offset all potential development so "no net loss" is not possible. This has implications for future conservation of this and similarly distributed species and for resource development planning‚ especially the use of legislated offsets for biodiversity protection. © 2016 Vanderduys et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License‚ which permits unrestricted use‚ distribution‚ and reproduction in any medium‚ provided the original author and source are credited.
    Citation

    Vanderduys, E. P., Reside, A. E., Grice, A., & Rechetelo, J. (2016). Addressing potential cumulative impacts of development on threatened species: The case of the endangered black-throated finch. PLoS ONE, 11. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0148485

  37. Trumbo, D. R., Epstein, B., Hohenlohe, P. A., Alford, R. A., Schwarzkopf, L., & Storfer, A. (2016). Mixed population genomics support for the central marginal hypothesis across the invasive range of the cane toad (Rhinella marina) in Australia. Molecular Ecology, 25, 4161–4176. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.13754

    Molecular Ecology
    Abstract

    Understanding factors that cause species’ geographic range limits is a major focus in ecology and evolution. The central marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts that species cannot adapt to conditions beyond current geographic range edges because genetic diversity decreases from core to edge due to smaller‚ more isolated edge populations. We employed a population genomics framework using 24 235-33 112 SNP loci to test major predictions of the CMH in the ongoing invasion of the cane toad (Rhinella marina) in Australia. Cane toad tissue samples were collected along broad-scale‚ core-to-edge transects across their invasive range. Geographic and ecological core areas were identified using GIS and habitat suitability indices from ecological niche modelling. Bayesian clustering analyses revealed three genetic clusters‚ in the northwest invasion-front region‚ northeast precipitation-limited region and southeast cold temperature-limited region. Core-to-edge patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation were consistent with the CMH in the southeast‚ but were not supported in the northeast and showed mixed support in the northwest. Results suggest cold temperatures are a likely contributor to southeastern range limits‚ consistent with CMH predictions. In the northeast and northwest‚ ecological processes consisting of a steep physiological barrier and ongoing invasion dynamics‚ respectively‚ are more likely explanations for population genomic patterns than the CMH.
    Citation

    Trumbo, D. R., Epstein, B., Hohenlohe, P. A., Alford, R. A., Schwarzkopf, L., & Storfer, A. (2016). Mixed population genomics support for the central marginal hypothesis across the invasive range of the cane toad (Rhinella marina) in Australia. Molecular Ecology, 25, 4161–4176. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.13754

  38. Wang, T. L., Wang, G. Y., Innes, J., Nitschke, C., & Kang, H. J. (2016). Climatic niche models and their consensus projections for future climates for four major forest tree species in the Asia-Pacific region. Forest Ecology and Management, 360, 357–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.08.004

    Forest Ecology and Management
    Abstract

    Modeling and mapping the climatic niches of forest tree species and projecting their potential shift in geographic distribution under future climates are essential steps in assessing the impact of climate change on forests and in developing adaptive forest management strategies. It is particularly important for selecting suitable tree species to match future climates for afforestation and restoration of forest ecosystems. Large scale afforestation and reforestation projects have occurred or planned in Asia-Pacific region; however‚ the direct impact of climate change has not been widely considered. This has been at least partially due to the lack of availability of robust inventory data on forest vegetation and lack of access to appropriate climate data. In this study‚ we used our recently developed model‚ ClimateAP‚ to generate a large number of climate variables for point locations and used an ensemble modeling approach with Random Forest to overcome some limitations that exist with vegetation data. Uncertainty in future climates was incorporated into the analysis through consensus based projections using 12 climate change scenarios. We modeled the climatic niches for four economically and ecologically important forest tree species in the region and projected their shift in geographical distribution under climate change. Unusual patterns in the shift of geographic distributions of climatic niches were found in two species in Southern China. The implications of the projections in forest management for adaptation to climate change are discussed. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Wang, T. L., Wang, G. Y., Innes, J., Nitschke, C., & Kang, H. J. (2016). Climatic niche models and their consensus projections for future climates for four major forest tree species in the Asia-Pacific region. Forest Ecology and Management, 360, 357–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.08.004

  39. Williams, A. A. E., Williams, M. R., Edwards, E. D., & Coppen, R. A. M. (2016). The sun-moths (Lepidoptera: Castniidae) of Western Australia: an inventory of distribution, larval food plants, habitat, behaviour, seasonality and conservation status. Records of the Western Australian Museum, 31, 90–162. https://doi.org/10.18195/issn.0312-3162.31(2).2016.090-162

    Records of the Western Australian Museum
    abstract
    Citation

    Williams, A. A. E., Williams, M. R., Edwards, E. D., & Coppen, R. A. M. (2016). The sun-moths (Lepidoptera: Castniidae) of Western Australia: an inventory of distribution, larval food plants, habitat, behaviour, seasonality and conservation status. Records of the Western Australian Museum, 31, 90–162. https://doi.org/10.18195/issn.0312-3162.31(2).2016.090-162

  40. Brandis, K., & Bino, G. (2016). A review of the relationship between flow and waterbird ecology in the Condamine-Balonne and Barwon-Darling River. Centre for Ecosystem Science, University of New South Wales.
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305986060

    abstract
    Citation

    Brandis, K., & Bino, G. (2016). A review of the relationship between flow and waterbird ecology in the Condamine-Balonne and Barwon-Darling River. Centre for Ecosystem Science, University of New South Wales.

  41. Udyawer, V., D’Anastasi, B., McAuley, R., & Heupel, M. (2016). Exploring the status of Western Australia’s sea snakes. nespmarine.edu.au.
    https://www.nespmarine.edu.au/document/exploring-status-western-australia%E2%80%99s-sea-snakes

    Abstract

    All sea snakes are listed marine species under the EPBC Act and three Australian endemic species are listed as Critically Endangered or Endangered‚ and as such are a national conservation priority. Recent findings of two Critically Endangered sea snake species (Aipysurus apraefrontalis and Aipysurus foliosquama) in locations outside of their previously defined ranges have highlighted the lack of information on species distributions along the North West coast of Australia. Data on sea snake sightings on previously collected baited remote underwater video surveys (BRUVS) and fisheries independent trawl surveys were used to assess the utility of these methodologies to accurately define relative abundance and distribution patterns of sea snakes in the North West Marine Region (NWMR)‚ including within Commonwealth Marine Reserves (CMRs)‚ to refine species’ status.
    Presence/absence data from BRUVS were used to predict locations that are likely important habitats for sea snake populations within the NWMR‚ which included mid-shelf and oceanic shoals along the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts. Limited fisheries-independent trawl sampling data collected in Shark Bay and Exmouth Gulf highlighted patterns of interaction between sea snakes and trawl fishing‚ with survivorship curves indicating that most sea snake species encountered within these regions may be able to sustain low to moderate levels of trawl fishing. Trawl survey data also highlighted the need for additional fisheries interaction data to accurately assess the species-specific influence of fishing activities (e.g. trawl and trap fishing) on different life stages of sea snakes susceptible to incidental capture (bycatch). This project highlights the need for more data on sea snakes in regions lacking information (e.g. mid-shelf shoals of Kimberley coast‚ Pilbara coast and Rowley Shoals). In addition‚ further research is also required to assess the degree of connectivity between sea snake populations from offshore reefs that have seen recent declines‚ and those on adjacent mid-shelf and oceanic shoals.
    Citation

    Udyawer, V., D’Anastasi, B., McAuley, R., & Heupel, M. (2016). Exploring the status of Western Australia’s sea snakes. nespmarine.edu.au.

  42. Campbell, L. P. (2016). Modeling Approaches to Investigating Distributions, Abundances, and Connectivity of Mosquito Vector Species [PhD]. University of Kansas.
    http://hdl.handle.net/1808/24211

    Abstract

    Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases comprise a serious public health concern globally. Over the past 30 years‚ an increase in newly-emerging vector-borne pathogens‚ coupled with the broader dispersal of known pathogens‚ has resulted in substantial challenges for public health intervention and prevention programs. This burden highlights the need for continued improvement of modeling approaches and prediction methods to help identify areas vulnerable to infection‚ thereby contributing toward more efficient distributions of limited public health resources. The field of disease ecology emphasizes interactions between disease system components and the natural environment‚ recognizing that humans are not always the catalyst for pathogen dispersal and distributions. While incorporating environmental factors in assessing potential pathogen risk is a logical first step‚ complexities in this approach exist because pathogens are nested within the broader community ecology of host‚ vector‚ and reservoir species‚ and often‚ not all of these elements are known. Although this element poses challenges to understanding limiting factors of specific environmental pathogens‚ the multitude of components within individual disease systems offer several avenues from which to study patterns‚ providing insight into risk. Mosquito vectors are one such component. This knowledge‚ coupled with advances in geospatial technologies‚ provides excellent opportunities to model environmental factors contributing to potential pathogen distributions and to help predict disease risk in humans. Here‚ I present three ecological modeling approaches to quantify and predict suitable environments‚ abundances‚ and connectivity for three mosquito vector species important to human and domestic livestock health. The first chapter delivers a global model of suitable environments for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under present and future climate change calibrated on presence-only data. The second chapter outlines a new approach to predicting Ae. mcintoshi abundances in Kenya and western Somalia at an 8-day temporal resolution during October to January from 2002–2015. The third chapter demonstrates the potential to investigate Ae. mcintoshi population genetic structure and associations between environmental variables across eastern Kenya using gene sequence data. Each of these chapters address individual research questions using a disease ecology approach‚ while contributing more broadly to knowledge of mosquito vector ecologies and the potential for human disease risk.
    Citation

    Campbell, L. P. (2016). Modeling Approaches to Investigating Distributions, Abundances, and Connectivity of Mosquito Vector Species [PhD]. University of Kansas.

  43. Evans, M. (2016). Species distribution modelling of the Glossy Black Cockatoo in Queensland’s Condamine region [B.Sc.(Hon)]. University of Southern Queensland.
    https://eprints.usq.edu.au/31397/

    Abstract

    This project undertakes species distribution modelling of the Glossy Black Cockatoo (Calyptorhynchus lathami). Species distribution modelling is a GIS application that has been used in a number of different studies. In this instance it will be used to predict and map the habitat suitability of areas across the Condamine River catchment in Queensland for the subject species and thus provide information valuable for developing conservation strategies.
    The maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling software program was utilised in species distribution modelling. The data for the project has been sourced from a variety of spatial data custodians and then processed through the ArcGIS software to achieve the required data format for analysis. Two main types of datasets were required: the samples (sightings) data of the species‚ and the environmental variables that provide information to derive the prediction. These variables include; land use‚ DEM‚ slope‚ aspect‚ regional ecosystems‚ roads and drainage data.
    The modelling has produced a satisfactory and valuable set of results. The main output is a species distribution map‚ in which every area is assigned specific habitat suitability values for the cockatoo in the area. Another important result is the contribution made by each variable to the final model. In this project land use (46.2%) and elevation (34.9%) were the most important variables in the model‚ while aspect (1.3%) was the most inconsequential.
    Conducting this research has opened up avenues for further work such as expanding the scope to alternate species or different areas. Doing so would further assist in preventing the demise of an endangered species. Doing further research into the specific characteristics of the identified areas of high suitability would also be enlightening. The project has been successful in indentifying suitable habitat for the Glossy Black Cockatoo. The information obtained from this study could be useful in future conservation efforts for this species.
    Citation

    Evans, M. (2016). Species distribution modelling of the Glossy Black Cockatoo in Queensland’s Condamine region [B.Sc.(Hon)]. University of Southern Queensland.

  44. Etges, M. F. (2016). Axis axis em foco: efeitos da introdução e modelagem da invasão [Master]. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
    http://hdl.handle.net/10183/150711

    Abstract

    Alien vertebrates are intentionally introduced for leisure and economic purposes. Those who become able to expand their populations in the new areas are known as invasive and are often involved in undesirable effects in indigenous populations‚ communities and ecosystems. The axis deer was introduced worldwide for hunting. Despite its wide distribution and use‚ little is known about its effects on the invaded areas and regions in which this species can become invasive. This complicates the decision-making because assessing the effects of the introduction and predict areas at risk of invasion are key tasks for prevention strategies‚ prioritization and control actions. Like this. So‚ this study aimed to summarize the effects of the axis deer in invaded areas using a systematic review protocol and to model the potential distribution of this species globally and in South America using bioclimatic variables. To summarized the effects we conducted searches for studies on non-native areas in three databases‚ using three sets of key-words and classified the studies that met the criteria of the protocol according to the level of inference about the effects they investigated. We extracted the types mentioned effects and occurrence region. To model the potential distribution based on bioclimatic variables we used the program Maxent. We used occurrences from the original distribution and three regions where the species is invasive about which geographical coordinates could be obtained or estimated. Four studies demonstrated effects of the axis deer due to competition with native species‚ changes in the floristic and faunistic composition and facilitation of other invasion processes. Six studies speculated the occurrence of disease transmition‚ hybridization with other species and difuse degradation of forest areas in combination with other invasive species. The distribution model demonstrated that large extensions of South America‚ Central Africa and Southeast Asia are susceptible to invasion. In the southern cone of South America Brazil‚ Uruguay‚ northern Argentina and Paraguay include extensive areas prone to invasion based on the bioclamatic models.
    Citation

    Etges, M. F. (2016). Axis axis em foco: efeitos da introdução e modelagem da invasão [Master]. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

2015

  1. Lechner, A. M., Mcintyre, N., Bulovic, N., Kujala, H., Whitehead, A., Webster, A., Wintle, B. A., Rifkin, W., & Scott, M. (2015). A GIS tool for land and water use planning in mining regions. 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Gold Coast.
    https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2015.f10.lechner

    21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
    abstract
    Citation

    Lechner, A. M., Mcintyre, N., Bulovic, N., Kujala, H., Whitehead, A., Webster, A., Wintle, B. A., Rifkin, W., & Scott, M. (2015). A GIS tool for land and water use planning in mining regions. 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Gold Coast.

  2. Booth, T. (2015). Learning about the climatic requirements of threatened tree species. BGjournal, 12, 37–39.
    https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?list=ASE&pid=csiro:EP153849&expert=false&sb=RECENT&n=5&rpp=25&page=1&tr=146&dr=all&csiro.affiliation=50012972&dc4.publicationType=Journal%20Article

    BGjournal
    BGjournal
    abstract
    Citation

    Booth, T. (2015). Learning about the climatic requirements of threatened tree species. BGjournal, 12, 37–39.

  3. Booth, T. H. (2015). Using a Global Botanic Gardens Database to Help Assess the Capabilities of Rare Eucalypt Species to Cope with Climate Change. International Forestry Review, 17, 259–268. https://doi.org/10.1505/146554815815982639

    International Forestry Review
    Abstract

    Climate change impact analyses have focused mostly on natural distributions of plants and have generally ignored their intrinsic climatic adaptability. This may produce unreliable predictions of impacts. Eucalypts are potentially instructive for climate change studies‚ as many species have been assessed in commercial forestry trials outside the conditions of their natural distributions. However‚ rare eucalypt species‚ which usually have limited natural distributions‚ and are likely to be most susceptible to climate change‚ are often small or multi-stemmed species‚ which have generally not been included in commercial trials. This study used information for 12 rare eucalypt species from the PlantSearch database of Botanic Gardens Conservation International and assessed if this information can assist determining their climatic adaptability. The results should be treated with caution‚ but indicate that most of the 12 species are growing at some botanic gardens under annual mean temperature conditions that are warmer than where they occur naturally.
    Citation

    Booth, T. H. (2015). Using a Global Botanic Gardens Database to Help Assess the Capabilities of Rare Eucalypt Species to Cope with Climate Change. International Forestry Review, 17, 259–268. https://doi.org/10.1505/146554815815982639

  4. Booth, T. H., Broadhurst, L. M., Pinkard, E., Prober, S. M., Dillon, S. K., Bush, D., Pinyopusarerk, K., Doran, J. C., Ivkovich, M., & Young, A. G. (2015). Native forests and climate change: Lessons from eucalypts. Forest Ecology and Management, 347, 18–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.03.002

    Forest Ecology and Management
    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is to review studies relevant to potential climate change impacts on natural stands of eucalypts‚ with a view to identifying not only specific lessons for the management of native forests in Australia but also some general lessons relevant to native forests anywhere. More than 800 species of Eucalyptus are found naturally across Australia‚ as well as species such as E. deglupta and E. urophylla in countries north of Australia. Eucalypts provide a particularly interesting opportunity to examine the likely impacts of climate change‚ as many species have been widely evaluated in trials within and outside Australia‚ often under conditions that are warmer and sometimes drier than those found within their natural distributions. Results from these trials indicate the intrinsic ability of particular eucalypt species and provenances to tolerate conditions that are somewhat different from those experienced within their natural distributions. Eucalypts have particularly poor dispersal capabilities‚ so natural stands will be generally unable to track changing climatic conditions. Therefore‚ in the period to the end of the present century a key issue for each eucalypt species under climate change is whether its intrinsic adaptability will be sufficient to allow it to survive where it is currently located. Their ability to survive will be affected not only by climatic‚ but also atmospheric changes‚ which will affect important processes such as photosynthesis and water exchange. Again eucalypts provide a useful group for climate change studies as their commercial significance has led to various enhanced carbon dioxide experiments being carried out‚ as well as detailed genomic studies. This review considers eucalypts in relation to four main areas; (i) resources and characteristics (natural distributions and introduced distributions including their adaptability/plasticity)‚ (ii) analysis tools (species distribution models and growth models)‚ (iii) physiological factors (including temperature‚ drought and enhanced CO2) and (iv) interactions with other species (including pests and diseases). Priorities for future research are identified. It is concluded that analyses that do not allow for the intrinsic climatic adaptability of tree species‚ as well as their particular dispersal capabilities‚ are unlikely to provide reliable predictions of climate change impacts. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
    Citation

    Booth, T. H., Broadhurst, L. M., Pinkard, E., Prober, S. M., Dillon, S. K., Bush, D., Pinyopusarerk, K., Doran, J. C., Ivkovich, M., & Young, A. G. (2015). Native forests and climate change: Lessons from eucalypts. Forest Ecology and Management, 347, 18–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.03.002

  5. Bourne, A. E., Haigh, A. M., & Ellsworth, D. S. (2015). Stomatal sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit relates to climate of origin in Eucalyptus species. Tree Physiology, 35, 266–278. https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpv014

    Tree Physiology
    Abstract

    Selecting plantation species to balance water use and production requires accurate models for predicting how species will tolerate and respond to environmental conditions. Although interspecific variation in water use occurs‚ species-specific parameters are rarely incorporated into physiologically based models because often the appropriate species parameters are lacking. To determine the physiological control over water use in Eucalyptus‚ five stands of Eucalyptus species growing in a common garden were measured for sap flux rates and their stomatal response to vapour pressure deficit (D) was assessed. Maximal canopy conductance and whole-canopy stomatal sensitivity to D and reduced water availability were lower in species originating from more arid climates of origin than those from humid climates. Species from humid climates showed a larger decline in maximal sap flux density (JSmax) with reduced water availability‚ and a lower D at which stomatal closure occurred than species from more arid climates‚ implying larger sensitivity to water availability and D in these species. We observed significant (P < 0.05) correlations of species climate of origin with mean vessel diameter (R(2) = 0.90)‚ stomatal sensitivity to D (R(2) = 0.83) and the size of the decline in JSmax to restricted water availability (R(2) = 0.94). Thus aridity of climate of origin appears to have a selective role in constraining water-use response among the five Eucalyptus plantation species. These relationships emphasize that within this congeneric group of species‚ climate aridity constrains water use. These relationships have implications for species choices for tree plantation success against drought-induced losses and the ability to manage Eucalyptus plantations against projected changes in water availability and evaporation in the future.
    Citation

    Bourne, A. E., Haigh, A. M., & Ellsworth, D. S. (2015). Stomatal sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit relates to climate of origin in Eucalyptus species. Tree Physiology, 35, 266–278. https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpv014

  6. Campbell, L. P., Luther, C., Moo-Llanes, D., Ramsey, J. M., Danis-Lozano, R., & Peterson, A. T. (2015). Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 370, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0135

    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
    Abstract

    Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases‚ yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking‚ at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that‚ in turn‚ allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas‚ which— given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species—are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously‚ as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Campbell, L. P., Luther, C., Moo-Llanes, D., Ramsey, J. M., Danis-Lozano, R., & Peterson, A. T. (2015). Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 370, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0135

  7. Cornuault, J., Khimoun, A., Cuneo, P., & Besnard, G. (2015). Spatial segregation and realized niche shift during the parallel invasion of two olive subspecies in south-eastern Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 42, 1930–1941. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12538

    Journal of Biogeography
    Abstract

    Aim: Greater understanding of the processes underlying biological invasions is required to determine and predict invasion risk. Two subspecies of olive (Olea europaea subsp. europaea and Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata) have been introduced into Australia from the Mediterranean Basin and southern Africa during the 19th century. Our aim was to determine to what extent the native environmental niches of these two olive subspecies explain the current spatial segregation of the subspecies in their non-native range. We also assessed whether niche shifts had occurred in the non-native range‚ and examined whether invasion was associated with increased or decreased occupancy of niche space in the non-native range relative to the native range. Location: South-eastern Australia‚ Mediterranean Basin and southern Africa. Methods: Ecological niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify the similarity of native and non-native realized niches. Niche shifts were characterized by the relative contribution of niche expansion‚ stability and contraction based on the relative occupancy of environmental space by the native and non-native populations. Results: Native ENMs indicated that the spatial segregation of the two subspecies in their non-native range was partly determined by differences in their native niches. However‚ we found that environmentally suitable niches were less occupied in the non-native range relative to the native range‚ indicating that niche shifts had occurred through a contraction of the native niches after invasion‚ for both subspecies. Main conclusions: The mapping of environmental factors associated with niche expansion‚ stability or contraction allowed us to identify areas of greater invasion risk. This study provides an example of successful invasions that are associated with niche shifts‚ illustrating that introduced plant species are sometimes readily able to establish in novel environments. In these situations the assumption of niche stasis during invasion‚ which is implicitly assumed by ENMs‚ may be unreasonable. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
    Citation

    Cornuault, J., Khimoun, A., Cuneo, P., & Besnard, G. (2015). Spatial segregation and realized niche shift during the parallel invasion of two olive subspecies in south-eastern Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 42, 1930–1941. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12538

  8. Crameri, G., Durr, P. A., Barr, J., Yu, M., Graham, K., Williams, O. J., Kayali, G., Smith, D., Peiris, M., Mackenzie, J. S., & Wang, L. F. (2015). Absence of MERS-CoV antibodies in feral camels in Australia: Implications for the pathogen’s origin and spread. One Health, 1, 76–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2015.10.003

    One Health
    One Health
    Abstract

    Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections continue to be a serious emerging disease problem internationally with well over 1000 cases and a major outbreak outside of the Middle East region. While the hypothesis that dromedary camels are the likely major source of MERS-CoV infection in humans is gaining acceptance‚ conjecture continues over the original natural reservoir host(s) and specifically the role of bats in the emergence of the virus. Dromedary camels were imported to Australia‚ principally between 1880 and 1907 and have since become a large feral population inhabiting extensive parts of the continent. Here we report that during a focussed surveillance study‚ no serological evidence was found for the presence of MERS-CoV in the camels in the Australian population. This finding presents various hypotheses about the timing of the emergence and spread of MERS-CoV throughout populations of camels in Africa and Asia‚ which can be partially resolved by testing sera from camels from the original source region‚ which we have inferred was mainly northwestern Pakistan. In addition‚ we identify bat species which overlap (or neighbour) the range of the Australian camel population with a higher likelihood of carrying CoVs of the same lineage as MERS-CoV. Both of these proposed follow-on studies are examples of "proactive surveillance"‚ a concept that has particular relevance to a One Health approach to emerging zoonotic diseases with a complex epidemiology and aetiology.
    Citation

    Crameri, G., Durr, P. A., Barr, J., Yu, M., Graham, K., Williams, O. J., Kayali, G., Smith, D., Peiris, M., Mackenzie, J. S., & Wang, L. F. (2015). Absence of MERS-CoV antibodies in feral camels in Australia: Implications for the pathogen’s origin and spread. One Health, 1, 76–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2015.10.003

  9. Dalrymple, R. L., Kemp, D. J., Flores-Moreno, H., Laffan, S. W., White, T. E., Hemmings, F. A., Tindall, M. L., & Moles, A. T. (2015). Birds, butterflies and flowers in the tropics are not more colourful than those at higher latitudes. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24, 1424–1432. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12368

    Global Ecology and Biogeography
    abstract
    Citation

    Dalrymple, R. L., Kemp, D. J., Flores-Moreno, H., Laffan, S. W., White, T. E., Hemmings, F. A., Tindall, M. L., & Moles, A. T. (2015). Birds, butterflies and flowers in the tropics are not more colourful than those at higher latitudes. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24, 1424–1432. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12368

  10. Doherty, T. S., Davis, R. A., van Etten, E. J. B., Algar, D., Collier, N., Dickman, C. R., Edwards, G., Masters, P., Palmer, R., Robinson, S., & McGeoch, M. (2015). A continental-scale analysis of feral cat diet in Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 42, 964–975. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12469

    Journal of Biogeography
    abstract
    Citation

    Doherty, T. S., Davis, R. A., van Etten, E. J. B., Algar, D., Collier, N., Dickman, C. R., Edwards, G., Masters, P., Palmer, R., Robinson, S., & McGeoch, M. (2015). A continental-scale analysis of feral cat diet in Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 42, 964–975. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12469

  11. Firn, J., Martin, T. G., Chadès, I., Walters, B., Hayes, J., Nicol, S., & Carwardine, J. (2015). Priority threat management of non-native plants to maintain ecosystem integrity across heterogeneous landscapes. Journal of Applied Ecology, 52, 1135–1144. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12500

    Journal of Applied Ecology
    Abstract

    Invasive non-native plants have negatively impacted on biodiversity and ecosystem functions world-wide. Because of the large number of species‚ their wide distributions and varying degrees of impact‚ we need a more effective method for prioritizing control strategies for cost-effective investment across heterogeneous landscapes. Here‚ we develop a prioritization framework that synthesizes scientific data‚ elicits knowledge from experts and stakeholders to identify control strategies‚ and appraises the cost-effectiveness of strategies. Our objective was to identify the most cost-effective strategies for reducing the total area dominated by high-impact non-native plants in the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). We use a case study of the 120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin that comprises some of the most distinctive Australian landscapes‚ including Uluru-Kata Tjuta National Park. More than 240 non-native plant species are recorded in the Lake Eyre Basin‚ with many predicted to spread‚ but there are insufficient resources to control all species. Lake Eyre Basin experts identified 12 strategies to control‚ contain or eradicate non-native species over the next 50 years. The total cost of the proposed Lake Eyre Basin strategies was estimated at AU1·7 billion‚ an average of AU34 million annually. Implementation of these strategies is estimated to reduce non-native plant dominance by 17 million ha - there would be a 32% reduction in the likely area dominated by non-native plants within 50 years if these strategies were implemented. The three most cost-effective strategies were controlling Parkinsonia aculeata‚ Ziziphus mauritiana and Prosopis spp. These three strategies combined were estimated to cost only 0·01% of total cost of all the strategies‚ but would provide 20% of the total benefits. Over 50 years‚ cost-effective spending of AU2·3 million could eradicate all non-native plant species from the only threatened ecological community within the Lake Eyre Basin‚ the Great Artesian Basin discharge springs. Synthesis and applications. Our framework‚ based on a case study of the 120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin in Australia‚ provides a rationale for financially efficient investment in non-native plant management and reveals combinations of strategies that are optimal for different budgets. It also highlights knowledge gaps and incidental findings that could improve effective management of non-native plants‚ for example addressing the reliability of species distribution data and prevalence of information sharing across states and regions. Our framework‚ based on a case study of the 120 million ha Lake Eyre Basin in Australia‚ provides a rationale for financially efficient investment in non-native plant management and reveals combinations of strategies that are optimal for different budgets. It also highlights knowledge gaps and incidental findings that could improve effective management of non-native plants‚ for example addressing the reliability of species distribution data and prevalence of information sharing across states and regions. © 2015 British Ecological Society.
    Citation

    Firn, J., Martin, T. G., Chadès, I., Walters, B., Hayes, J., Nicol, S., & Carwardine, J. (2015). Priority threat management of non-native plants to maintain ecosystem integrity across heterogeneous landscapes. Journal of Applied Ecology, 52, 1135–1144. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12500

  12. Firn, J., Maggini, R., Chadès, I., Nicol, S., Walters, B., Reeson, A., Martin, T. G., Possingham, H. P., Pichancourt, J. B., Ponce-Reyes, R., & Carwardine, J. (2015). Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change. Global Change Biology, 21, 3917–3930. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13034

    Global Change Biology
    Abstract

    Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity‚ and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent‚ the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region’s most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions‚ experts estimated the cost‚ feasibility‚ and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change‚ with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered‚ with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall‚ we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making‚ even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
    Citation

    Firn, J., Maggini, R., Chadès, I., Nicol, S., Walters, B., Reeson, A., Martin, T. G., Possingham, H. P., Pichancourt, J. B., Ponce-Reyes, R., & Carwardine, J. (2015). Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change. Global Change Biology, 21, 3917–3930. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13034

  13. Harrington, G. N., & Murphy, S. A. (2015). The distribution and conservation status of Carpentarian grasswrens (Amytornis dorotheae), with reference to prevailing fire patterns. Pacific Conservation Biology, 21. https://doi.org/10.1071/pc15021

    Pacific Conservation Biology
    abstract
    Citation

    Harrington, G. N., & Murphy, S. A. (2015). The distribution and conservation status of Carpentarian grasswrens (Amytornis dorotheae), with reference to prevailing fire patterns. Pacific Conservation Biology, 21. https://doi.org/10.1071/pc15021

  14. Harris, R. M., Carter, O., Gilfedder, L., Porfirio, L. L., Lee, G., & Bindoff, N. L. (2015). Noah’s Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change. PLoS ONE, 10, e0124014. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124014

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    BACKGROUND: Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania‚ Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. METHODS: We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities‚ which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities‚ and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models‚ under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. RESULTS: All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered‚ but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century‚ and very little of that area is currently in good condition. CONCLUSIONS: As the climate becomes less suitable‚ a gradual change in the species composition‚ structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity‚ structure and function‚ rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale‚ and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation‚ weed invasion and stress from other land uses‚ while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term.
    Citation

    Harris, R. M., Carter, O., Gilfedder, L., Porfirio, L. L., Lee, G., & Bindoff, N. L. (2015). Noah’s Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change. PLoS ONE, 10, e0124014. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124014

  15. Hunter, D. O., Britz, T., Jones, M., & Letnic, M. (2015). Reintroduction of Tasmanian devils to mainland Australia can restore top-down control in ecosystems where dingoes have been extirpated. Biological Conservation, 191, 428–435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.07.030

    Biological Conservation
    Abstract

    Restoring missing ecological interactions by reintroducing locally extinct species or ecological surrogates for extinct species has been mooted as an approach to restore ecosystems. Australia’s apex predator‚ the dingo‚ is subject to culling in order to prevent attacks on livestock. Dingo culling has been linked to ecological cascades evidenced by irruptions of herbivores and introduced mesopredators and declines of small and medium sized mammals. Maintenance of dingo populations is untenable for land-managers in many parts of Australia owing to their depredations on livestock. However‚ it may be possible to fill the apex predator niche with the Tasmanian devil which has less impact on livestock Devils once occurred throughout Australia‚ but became extinct from the mainland about 3000 years ago‚ but are now threatened by a disease epidemic in Tasmania. To explore the feasibility of reintroducing devils to mainland Australia we used species distribution models (SDMs) to determine if suitable climatic conditions for devils exist and fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to predict the effects of devil reintroduction. Based on devils’ current distribution‚ our SDM indicates that suitable areas for devils exist in south-eastern Australia. Our FCM examined ecosystem responses to predator-management scenarios by manipulating the abundances of devils‚ dingoes and foxes. Our FCMs showed devils would have cascading effects similar to‚ but weaker than those of dingoes. Devil introduction was linked to lower abundances of introduced mesopredators and herbivores. Abundances of small and medium sized mammals and understorey vegetation complexity increased with devil introduction. However‚ threatened species vulnerable to fox predation benefited little from devil introduction. Our study suggests that reintroducing ecological surrogates for apex predators may yield benefits for biodiversity conservation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Hunter, D. O., Britz, T., Jones, M., & Letnic, M. (2015). Reintroduction of Tasmanian devils to mainland Australia can restore top-down control in ecosystems where dingoes have been extirpated. Biological Conservation, 191, 428–435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.07.030

  16. Lentini, P. E., & Wintle, B. A. (2015). Spatial conservation priorities are highly sensitive to choice of biodiversity surrogates and species distribution model type. Ecography, 38, 1101–1111. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01252

    Ecography
    Ecography
    abstract
    Citation

    Lentini, P. E., & Wintle, B. A. (2015). Spatial conservation priorities are highly sensitive to choice of biodiversity surrogates and species distribution model type. Ecography, 38, 1101–1111. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01252

  17. McLean, C. A., Stuart-Fox, D., & Moussalli, A. (2015). Environment, but not genetic divergence, influences geographic variation in colour morph frequencies in a lizard. BMC Evolutionary Biology, 15, 156. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12862-015-0442-x

    BMC Evolutionary Biology
    Abstract

    BACKGROUND: Identifying the causes of intraspecific phenotypic variation is essential for understanding evolutionary processes that maintain diversity and promote speciation. In polymorphic species‚ the relative frequencies of discrete morphs often vary geographically; yet the drivers of spatial variation in morph frequencies are seldom known. Here‚ we test the relative importance of gene flow and natural selection to identify the causes of geographic variation in colour morph frequencies in the Australian tawny dragon lizard‚ Ctenophorus decresii. RESULTS: Populations of C. decresii are polymorphic for male throat coloration and all populations surveyed shared the same four morphs but differed in the relative frequencies of morphs. Despite genetic structure among populations‚ there was no relationship between genetic similarity or geographic proximity and similarity in morph frequencies. However‚ we detected remarkably strong associations between morph frequencies and two environmental variables (mean annual aridity index and vegetation cover)‚ which together explained approximately 45 % of the total variance in morph frequencies. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial variation in selection appears to play an important role in shaping morph frequency patterns in C. decresii. Selection associated with differences in local environmental conditions‚ combined with relatively low levels of gene flow‚ is expected to favour population divergence in morph composition‚ but may be counteracted by negative frequency-dependent selection favouring rare morphs.
    Citation

    McLean, C. A., Stuart-Fox, D., & Moussalli, A. (2015). Environment, but not genetic divergence, influences geographic variation in colour morph frequencies in a lizard. BMC Evolutionary Biology, 15, 156. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12862-015-0442-x

  18. Miller, E. T., Wagner, S. K., Harmon, L. J., & Ricklefs, R. E. (2015). Radiating despite a lack of character: closely related, morphologically similar, co-occurring honeyeaters have diverged ecologically. BioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/034389

    bioRxiv
    bioRxiv
    abstract
    Citation

    Miller, E. T., Wagner, S. K., Harmon, L. J., & Ricklefs, R. E. (2015). Radiating despite a lack of character: closely related, morphologically similar, co-occurring honeyeaters have diverged ecologically. BioRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/034389

  19. Miskelly, C. M. (2015). Records of three vagrant Antarctic seal species (Family Phocidae) from New Zealand: crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophaga), Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) and Ross seal (Ommatophoca rossii). New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 49, 448–461. https://doi.org/10.1080/00288330.2015.1080173

    New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research
    abstract
    Citation

    Miskelly, C. M. (2015). Records of three vagrant Antarctic seal species (Family Phocidae) from New Zealand: crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophaga), Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) and Ross seal (Ommatophoca rossii). New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 49, 448–461. https://doi.org/10.1080/00288330.2015.1080173

  20. Mitchell, P. J., & O’Grady, A. P. (2015). Adaptation of leaf water relations to climatic and habitat water availability. Forests, 6, 2281–2295. https://doi.org/10.3390/f6072281

    Forests
    Forests
    Abstract

    Successful management of forest systems requires a deeper understanding of the role of ecophysiological traits in enabling adaptation to high temperature and water deficit under current and anticipated changes in climate. A key attribute of leaf water relations is the water potential at zero turgor (π<inf>tlp</inf>)‚ because it defines the operating water potentials over which plants actively control growth and gas exchange. This study examines the drivers of variation in π<inf>tlp</inf> with respect to species climate of origin and habitat water availability. We compiled a water relations database for 174 woody species occupying clearly delineated gradients in temperature and precipitation across the Australian continent. A significant proportion of the variability in π<inf>tlp</inf> (\textasciitilde35%) could be explained by climatic water deficit and its interaction with summertime maximum temperature‚ demonstrating the strong selective pressure of aridity and high temperature in shaping leaf water relations among Australian species. Habitat water availability (midday leaf water potential)‚ was also a significant predictor of π<inf>tlp</inf> (R2 = 0.43)‚ highlighting the importance of species ecohydrologic niche under a set of climatic conditions. Shifts in π<inf>tlp</inf> in response to both climatic and site-based drivers of water availability emphasises its adaptive significance and its suitability as a predictor of plant performance under future climatic change. © 2015 by the authors.
    Citation

    Mitchell, P. J., & O’Grady, A. P. (2015). Adaptation of leaf water relations to climatic and habitat water availability. Forests, 6, 2281–2295. https://doi.org/10.3390/f6072281

  21. Mo, M. (2015). The history and status of apostlebirds ('Struthidea cinerea’) in the Sydney Region. Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales, 137, 29–35.
    https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=755254353958690;res=IELHSS

    Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales
    abstract
    Citation

    Mo, M. (2015). The history and status of apostlebirds ('Struthidea cinerea’) in the Sydney Region. Proceedings of the Linnean Society of New South Wales, 137, 29–35.

  22. Pintor, A. F. V., Schwarzkopf, L., & Krockenberger, A. K. (2015). Rapoport’s Rule: Do climatic variability gradients shape range extent? Ecological Monographs, 85, 643–659. https://doi.org/10.1890/14-1510.1

    Ecological Monographs
    abstract
    Citation

    Pintor, A. F. V., Schwarzkopf, L., & Krockenberger, A. K. (2015). Rapoport’s Rule: Do climatic variability gradients shape range extent? Ecological Monographs, 85, 643–659. https://doi.org/10.1890/14-1510.1

  23. Peterson, A. T., & Campbell, L. P. (2015). Global potential distribution of the mosquito Aedes notoscriptus, a new alien species in the United States. Journal of Vector Ecology, 40, 191–194. https://doi.org/10.1111/jvec.12151

    Journal of Vector Ecology
    abstract
    Citation

    Peterson, A. T., & Campbell, L. P. (2015). Global potential distribution of the mosquito Aedes notoscriptus, a new alien species in the United States. Journal of Vector Ecology, 40, 191–194. https://doi.org/10.1111/jvec.12151

  24. Rosauer, D. F., Catullo, R. A., VanDerWal, J., Moussalli, A., & Moritz, C. (2015). Lineage range estimation method reveals fine-scale endemism linked to Pleistocene stability in Australian rainforest herpetofauna. PLoS ONE, 10, e0126274. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0126274

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    Areas of suitable habitat for species and communities have arisen‚ shifted‚ and disappeared with Pleistocene climate cycles‚ and through this shifting landscape‚ current biodiversity has found paths to the present. Evolutionary refugia‚ areas of relative habitat stability in this shifting landscape‚ support persistence of lineages through time‚ and are thus crucial to the accumulation and maintenance of biodiversity. Areas of endemism are indicative of refugial areas where diversity has persisted‚ and endemism of intraspecific lineages in particular is strongly associated with late-Pleistocene habitat stability. However‚ it remains a challenge to consistently estimate the geographic ranges of intraspecific lineages and thus infer phylogeographic endemism‚ because spatial sampling for genetic analyses is typically sparse relative to species records. We present a novel technique to model the geographic distribution of intraspecific lineages‚ which is informed by the ecological niche of a species and known locations of its constituent lineages. Our approach allows for the effects of isolation by unsuitable habitat‚ and captures uncertainty in the extent of lineage ranges. Applying this method to the arc of rainforest areas spanning 3500 km in eastern Australia‚ we estimated lineage endemism for 53 species of rainforest dependent herpetofauna with available phylogeographic data. We related endemism to the stability of rainforest habitat over the past 120‚000 years and identified distinct concentrations of lineage endemism that can be considered putative refugia. These areas of lineage endemism are strongly related to historical stability of rainforest habitat‚ after controlling for the effects of current environment. In fact‚ a dynamic stability model that allows movement to track suitable habitat over time was the most important factor in explaining current patterns of endemism. The techniques presented here provide an objective‚ practical method for estimating geographic ranges below the species level‚ and including them in spatial analyses of biodiversity.
    Citation

    Rosauer, D. F., Catullo, R. A., VanDerWal, J., Moussalli, A., & Moritz, C. (2015). Lineage range estimation method reveals fine-scale endemism linked to Pleistocene stability in Australian rainforest herpetofauna. PLoS ONE, 10, e0126274. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0126274

  25. Rozefelds, A. C., Dettmann, M. E., Clifford, H. T., & Lewis, D. (2015). Macrofossil evidence of early sporophyte stages of a new genus of water fernTecaropteris(Ceratopteridoideae: Pteridaceae) from the Paleogene Redbank Plains Formation, southeast Queensland, Australia. Alcheringa, 40, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1080/03115518.2015.1069460

    Alcheringa
    Alcheringa
    abstract
    Citation

    Rozefelds, A. C., Dettmann, M. E., Clifford, H. T., & Lewis, D. (2015). Macrofossil evidence of early sporophyte stages of a new genus of water fernTecaropteris(Ceratopteridoideae: Pteridaceae) from the Paleogene Redbank Plains Formation, southeast Queensland, Australia. Alcheringa, 40, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1080/03115518.2015.1069460

  26. Schories, D., Sanamyan, K., Sanamyan, N., Diaz, M. J., Garrido, I., Heran, T., Holtheuer, J., & Kohlberg, G. (2015). Geographic ranges of ascidians from Antarctica and the southeastern Pacific. Advances in Polar Science, 26, 8–23. https://doi.org/10.13679/j.advps.2015.1.00008

    Advances in Polar Science
    abstract
    Citation

    Schories, D., Sanamyan, K., Sanamyan, N., Diaz, M. J., Garrido, I., Heran, T., Holtheuer, J., & Kohlberg, G. (2015). Geographic ranges of ascidians from Antarctica and the southeastern Pacific. Advances in Polar Science, 26, 8–23. https://doi.org/10.13679/j.advps.2015.1.00008

  27. Saslis-Lagoudakis, C. H., Hua, X., Bui, E., Moray, C., & Bromham, L. (2015). Predicting species’ tolerance to salinity and alkalinity using distribution data and geochemical modelling: a case study using Australian grasses. Annals of Botany, 115, 343–351. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcu248

    Annals of Botany
    Abstract

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Salt tolerance has evolved many times independently in different plant groups. One possible explanation for this pattern is that it builds upon a general suite of stress-tolerance traits. If this is the case‚ then we might expect a correlation between salt tolerance and other tolerances to different environmental stresses. This association has been hypothesized for salt and alkalinity tolerance. However‚ a major limitation in investigating large-scale patterns of these tolerances is that lists of known tolerant species are incomplete. This study explores whether species’ salt and alkalinity tolerance can be predicted using geochemical modelling for Australian grasses. The correlation between taxa found in conditions of high predicted salinity and alkalinity is then assessed. METHODS: Extensive occurrence data for Australian grasses is used together with geochemical modelling to predict values of pH and electrical conductivity to which species are exposed in their natural distributions. Using parametric and phylogeny-corrected tests‚ the geochemical predictions are evaluated using a list of known halophytes as a control‚ and it is determined whether taxa that occur in conditions of high predicted salinity are also found in conditions of high predicted alkalinity. KEY RESULTS: It is shown that genera containing known halophytes have higher predicted salinity conditions than those not containing known halophytes. Additionally‚ taxa occurring in high predicted salinity tend to also occur in high predicted alkalinity. CONCLUSIONS: Geochemical modelling using species’ occurrence data is a potentially useful approach to predict species’ relative natural tolerance to challenging environmental conditions. The findings also demonstrate a correlation between salinity tolerance and alkalinity tolerance. Further investigations can consider the phylogenetic distribution of specific traits involved in these ecophysiological strategies‚ ideally by incorporating more complete‚ finer-scale geochemical information‚ as well as laboratory experiments.
    Citation

    Saslis-Lagoudakis, C. H., Hua, X., Bui, E., Moray, C., & Bromham, L. (2015). Predicting species’ tolerance to salinity and alkalinity using distribution data and geochemical modelling: a case study using Australian grasses. Annals of Botany, 115, 343–351. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcu248

  28. Sheehan, M. J., Botero, C. A., Hendry, T. A., Sedio, B. E., Jandt, J. M., Weiner, S., Toth, A. L., & Tibbetts, E. A. (2015). Different axes of environmental variation explain the presence vs. extent of cooperative nest founding associations in Polistes paper wasps. Ecology Letters, 18, 1057–1067. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12488

    Ecology Letters
    Abstract

    Ecological constraints on independent breeding are recognised as major drivers of cooperative breeding across diverse lineages. How the prevalence and degree of cooperative breeding relates to ecological variation remains unresolved. Using a large data set of cooperative nesting in Polistes wasps we demonstrate that different aspects of cooperative breeding are likely to be driven by different aspects of climate. Whether or not a species forms cooperative groups is associated with greater short-term temperature fluctuations. In contrast‚ the number of cooperative foundresses increases in more benign environments with warmer‚ wetter conditions. The same data set reveals that intraspecific responses to climate variation do not mirror genus-wide trends and instead are highly heterogeneous among species. Collectively these data suggest that the ecological drivers that lead to the origin or loss of cooperation are different from those that influence the extent of its expression within populations.
    Citation

    Sheehan, M. J., Botero, C. A., Hendry, T. A., Sedio, B. E., Jandt, J. M., Weiner, S., Toth, A. L., & Tibbetts, E. A. (2015). Different axes of environmental variation explain the presence vs. extent of cooperative nest founding associations in Polistes paper wasps. Ecology Letters, 18, 1057–1067. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12488

  29. Vidal-García, M., & Keogh, J. S. (2015). Convergent evolution across the Australian continent: Ecotype diversification drives morphological convergence in two distantly related clades of Australian frogs. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 28, 2136–2151. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeb.12746

    Journal of Evolutionary Biology
    Abstract

    Animals from different clades but subject to similar environments often evolve similar body shapes and physiological adaptations due to convergent evolution‚ but this has been rarely tested at the transcontinental level and across entire classes of animal. Australia’s biome diversity‚ isolation and aridification history provide excellent opportunities for comparative analyses on broad-scale macroevolutionary patterns. We collected morphological and environmental data on eighty-four (98%) Australian hylid frog species and categorized them into ecotypes. Using a phylogenetic framework‚ we tested the hypothesis that frogs from the same ecotype display similar body shape patterns: (i) across all the Australian hylids‚ and (ii) through comparison with a similar previous study on 127 (97%) Australian myobatrachid species. Body size and shape variation did not follow a strong phylogenetic pattern and was not tightly correlated with environment‚ but there was a stronger association between morphotype and ecotype. Both arboreal and aquatic frogs had long limbs‚ whereas limbs of fossorial species were shorter. Other terrestrial species were convergent on the more typical frog body shape. We quantified the strength of morphological convergence at two levels: (i) between fossorial myobatrachid and hylid frogs‚ and (ii) in each ecomorph within the hylids. We found strong convergence within ecotypes‚ especially in fossorial species. Ecotypes were also reflected in physiological adaptations: both arboreal and cocooned fossorial frogs tend to have higher rates of evaporative water loss. Our results illustrate how adaptation to different ecological niches plays a crucial role in morphological evolution‚ boosting phenotypic diversity within a clade. Despite phylogenetic conservatism‚ morphological adaptation to repeatedly emerging new environments can erase the signature of ancestral morphotypes‚ resulting in phenotypic diversification and convergence both within and between diverse clades. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
    Citation

    Vidal-García, M., & Keogh, J. S. (2015). Convergent evolution across the Australian continent: Ecotype diversification drives morphological convergence in two distantly related clades of Australian frogs. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 28, 2136–2151. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeb.12746

  30. Wardle, G. M., Greenville, A. C., Frank, A. S. K., Tischler, M., Emery, N. J., & Dickman, C. R. (2015). Ecosystem risk assessment of Georgina gidgee woodlands in central Australia. Austral Ecology, 40, 444–459. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12265

    Austral Ecology
    Abstract

    Ecosystems across the world‚ and the biodiversity they support‚ are experiencing increasing anthropogenic pressure‚ and many will not persist without intervention. Given their complexity‚ the International Union for Conservation of Nature has adopted an international standard for ecosystem risk assessment that builds on the strengths of the species-based Red List criteria. We applied this protocol to the relatively understudied Georgina gidgee woodland ecosystem‚ which has a patchy but widespread distribution in central Australia. To address the extensive knowledge gaps‚ we gathered data to provide the first description of the characteristic biota‚ distribution of dominant species and the processes that support the ecosystem. Criteria evaluated include historical‚ current and future declines in spatial distribution‚ the extent and area of occupancy‚ and disruptions to abiotic and biotic processes. Future declines in suitable habitat were based on key climatic variables of rainfall‚ temperature and soil substrate. We also quantified the uncertainty in bioclimatic models and scenarios as part of predicting degradation of the abiotic environment. Overall‚ we assessed the risk status of Georgina gidgee woodlands as vulnerable based on the degradation of abiotic and biotic processes. Bioclimatically suitable habitat was predicted to decline by at least 30% in eight scenarios over the period 2000 to 2050. Predicted declines in overall suitable habitat varied substantially across all scenarios (7-95%). Pressures from grazing‚ weed encroachment and altered fire regimes further threaten the ecosystem; therefore‚ vulnerable status was also recorded for future declines based on altered biotic processes. Accurate mapping and monitoring of the study ecosystem should receive priority to inform conservation decisions‚ and sustainable grazing practices encouraged. Our findings focus attention on other patchily distributed ecosystems that may also have escaped attention despite their contribution to supporting unique biodiversity and ecosystem services. It is timely that environmental monitoring and policy account for these natural assets.
    Citation

    Wardle, G. M., Greenville, A. C., Frank, A. S. K., Tischler, M., Emery, N. J., & Dickman, C. R. (2015). Ecosystem risk assessment of Georgina gidgee woodlands in central Australia. Austral Ecology, 40, 444–459. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12265

  31. Wen, L., Saintilan, N., Yang, X., Hunter, S., & Mawer, D. (2015). MODIS NDVI based metrics improve habitat suitability modelling in fragmented patchy floodplains. Remote Sensing Applications, 1, 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2015.08.001

    Remote Sensing Applications
    abstract
    Citation

    Wen, L., Saintilan, N., Yang, X., Hunter, S., & Mawer, D. (2015). MODIS NDVI based metrics improve habitat suitability modelling in fragmented patchy floodplains. Remote Sensing Applications, 1, 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2015.08.001

  32. Worth, J. R. P., Harrison, P. A., Williamson, G. J., & Jordan, G. J. (2015). Whole range and regional-based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii). Austral Ecology, 40, 126–138. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12184

    Austral Ecology
    abstract
    Citation

    Worth, J. R. P., Harrison, P. A., Williamson, G. J., & Jordan, G. J. (2015). Whole range and regional-based ecological niche models predict differing exposure to 21st century climate change in the key cool temperate rainforest tree southern beech (Nothofagus cunninghamii). Austral Ecology, 40, 126–138. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12184

  33. Zhao, L., Hou, P., Zhu, G. P., Li, M., Xie, T. X., & Liu, Q. (2015). Mapping the disjunct distribution of introduced codling moth Cydia pomonella in China. Agricultural and Forest Entomology, 17, 214–222. https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12104

    Agricultural and Forest Entomology
    Abstract

    Eastern China was once listed as an area infested with the invasive codling moth Cydia pomonellaL. (Lepidoptera: Tortricide). Intensive efforts later revealed the absence of such infestation. Currently‚ the majority of the population is distributed in western China. A disjunct population is also observed in the north east. In present study‚ the disjunct distribution was interpreted by mapping the climate dimension and potential distribution using an ecological niche modelling approach. The preferred niche models were utilized to identify the relative roles of climate‚ human influence and vegetation with respect to the present distribution and also to extrapolate the climate dimensions suitable for the codling moth in China. The results of the present study suggest that a combination of climate suitability and human influence explain the range expansion. Undistributed areas in eastern China were found to have low to medium climate suitability. Nonetheless‚ these areas belong to apple-growing regions that have high propagule pressure; thus‚ eventual establishment appears to be possible because of host plant availability‚ human activity and the wide ecological flexibility of the moth. Highly suitable habitats were found to be strongly related to high temperature and low precipitation throughout the year‚ whereas areas with low temperature and plenty of rainfall are unfavourable.
    Citation

    Zhao, L., Hou, P., Zhu, G. P., Li, M., Xie, T. X., & Liu, Q. (2015). Mapping the disjunct distribution of introduced codling moth Cydia pomonella in China. Agricultural and Forest Entomology, 17, 214–222. https://doi.org/10.1111/afe.12104

  34. Bush, A. (2015). Priorities and Uncertainties of Predicted Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Biodiversity in New South Wales (p. 96). Macquarie University.
    https://www.mq.edu.au/research/research-centres-groups-and-facilities/secure-planet/centres/biodiversity-node/our-projects/Effect-of-Climate-Change-on-Freshwater-Biodiversity-of-NSW.-Final-Report.pdf

    Abstract

    Alongside a growing awareness that climate change represents a substantial threat
    to biodiversity in New South Wales‚ it has become increasingly evident that we
    cannot afford to wait until climatic shifts result in confirmed impacts to ecosystems.
    The scale of projected changes‚ and the significant implications these will have for
    the functioning of ecological communities mean we must act early to reduce the risk
    posed by climate change‚ in addition to multiple other processes driving biodiversity
    loss. Freshwater systems are challenging environments to manage for multiple
    stakeholders‚ and climate change will further exacerbate many existing conflicts or
    threats to biodiversity. This report provides guidance for land and water managers on
    conservation management may improve the long-term capacity of freshwater
    ecosystems to adapt and reduce biodiversity loss. A comprehensive assessment
    was made of the risk posed by climate change to the persistence of over 500
    freshwater plants and animals in the basins of New South Wales. The report deals
    first with the projected vulnerability of those species to the impacts of climate
    change‚ and to what extent sources of uncertainty influences our assessment‚ and
    ultimately our choice of management priorities. The second part focuses in detailed
    approach to understanding how environmental management of non-climatic threats
    at local to regional scales could be best used to alleviate the impacts of climate
    change to fish species and communities.
    Citation

    Bush, A. (2015). Priorities and Uncertainties of Predicted Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Biodiversity in New South Wales (p. 96). Macquarie University.

  35. Zimmer, H. C., Brodribb, T. J., Delzon, S., & Baker, P. J. (2015). Drought avoidance and vulnerability in the Australian Araucariaceae. Tree Physiology, 36, 218–228. https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpv111

    Tree Physiology
    Abstract

    The Araucariaceae is an iconic tree family. Once globally important‚ the Araucariaceae declined dramatically over the Cenozoic period. Increasing aridity is thought to be responsible for extinction and range contraction of Araucariaceae in Australia‚ yet little is known about how these trees respond to water stress. We examined the response to water stress of the recently discovered tree Wollemia nobilis Jones‚ W.G.‚ Hill‚ K.D. &amp; Allen‚ J.M. (Araucariaceae) and two closely related and widespread tree species‚ Araucaria bidwillii Hook. and Araucaria cunninghamii Mudie‚ and the island-endemic species‚ Araucaria heterophylla (Salisb.) Franco. Leaf water potential in all Araucaria spp. remained remarkably unchanged during both dehydration and rehydration‚ indicating strong isohydry. The xylem tensions at which shoot and stem hydraulic conductances were reduced to 50% (P50shoot and P50stem) were closely correlated in all species. Among the four species‚ W. nobilis exhibited greater resistance to xylem hydraulic dysfunction during water stress (as indicated by P50shoot and P50stem). Unexpectedly‚ W. nobilis also experienced the highest levels of crown mortality in response to dehydration‚ suggesting that this was the most drought-sensitive species in this study. Our results highlight that single traits (e.g.‚ P50) should not be used in isolation to predict drought survival. Further‚ we found no clear correlation between species’ P50 and rainfall across their distributional range. Diversity in drought response among these closely related Araucariaceae species was surprisingly high‚ considering their reputation as a functionally conservative family. © 2015 The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions‚ please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
    Citation

    Zimmer, H. C., Brodribb, T. J., Delzon, S., & Baker, P. J. (2015). Drought avoidance and vulnerability in the Australian Araucariaceae. Tree Physiology, 36, 218–228. https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpv111

  36. Duke, N. C., Burrows, D., & Mackenzie, J. R. (2015). Mangrove and Freshwater Wetland Habitat Status of the Torres Strait Islands. Biodiversity, Biomass and Changing Condition of Wetlands. (p. 117). Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Lmt.
    http://www.nerptropical.edu.au/publication/project-22-final-report-mangrove-and-freshwater-wetland-habitat-status-torres-strait

    abstract
    Citation

    Duke, N. C., Burrows, D., & Mackenzie, J. R. (2015). Mangrove and Freshwater Wetland Habitat Status of the Torres Strait Islands. Biodiversity, Biomass and Changing Condition of Wetlands. (p. 117). Reef and Rainforest Research Centre Lmt.

  37. Bernays, S. (2015). Chasing the Dragon: The Resilience of a Species to Climate Change in the Wet Tropics, Australia [PhD]. Griffith University.
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367595

    Abstract

    Throughout history‚ climatic changes have caused environmental systems to shift and have influenced biotic assemblages. Most of these changes have occurred slowly‚ over millions of years‚ enabling species to either adapt to new conditions‚ endure the changes‚ or shift distributions to maintain their habitat requirements. Due to the fast rate at which climate change is currently occurring‚ it is unknown if species will be able to use these mechanisms to successfully respond to this rapidly changing environment. Areas that have small geographical extents‚ elevated uplands and high numbers of endemic species‚ such as the Wet Tropics in north-eastern Queensland‚ are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. The endemic species in this at-risk area are also expected to be more susceptible to climate change. The endemic Boyd’s forest dragon (Hypsilurus boydii‚ Macleay) is a highly camouflaged‚ large lizard that inhabits lowland and upland forests from the northern to the southern boundary of the Wet Tropics. Determining how H. boydii has responded to previous climate change may give insight into how the species may respond to future climatic changes. The main aims of this study were to understand how geographical features and climate have influenced the genetic makeup‚ morphology and distribution of H. boydii‚ and to use this information to determine how climate change may influence future populations. This study used genetic analyses to identify evolutionary and geographical relationships across the Wet Tropics (north vs. south of the Black Mountain corridor [BMC] and upland vs. lowland) and within each of these regions; explore morphological variation across the regions and examine conformity to three eco-geographical rules (Bergmann’s rule‚ Allen’s rule‚ and the isolation rule); and attempt to predict species distribution patterns of the species throughout the Wet Tropics during past‚ present and future climatic scenarios. Seventy-seven dragons were collected from nine sites across the Wet Tropics‚ with a blood sample (for genetic analyses) taken from each individual‚ 47 of these individuals‚ from eight of the sites‚ were sampled for morphological measurements. Due to the cryptic and ambush nature of the species‚ sample sizes were low and uneven.
    Citation

    Bernays, S. (2015). Chasing the Dragon: The Resilience of a Species to Climate Change in the Wet Tropics, Australia [PhD]. Griffith University.

  38. Hageer, Y. (2015). Modelling the distributions of Australian shrublands and shrub species: the role of climate and soil properties [PhD]. Macquarie University.
    http://hdl.handle.net/1959.14/1068495

    Abstract

    Shrubs‚ short multi-stemmed species‚ are an important plant growth form that can play a key role in biogeochemical cycles‚ stability of soil and prevention of soil and water erosion‚ provision of forage for livestock‚ and are a source of wood and non-woody products and foodstuff for many populations. However‚ there is a lack of knowledge regarding the influence of environmental variables on shrub distributions‚ and shrubland remains undefined as a plant functional type in most global vegetation models.
    Broadly‚ the goal of my thesis was to assess relationships between the distribution of Australian shrubland and shrub species and environmental properties‚ specifically climate and soil characteristics. The objectives of my thesis were three-fold. I initially assessed how the climate envelope of shrubland differed from other major vegetation types (forest‚ woodland‚ grassland) as well as differences between the six major shrubland classes (Acacia‚ Chenopod‚ Heathland‚ Mallee‚ Tall shrublands‚ “other” shrublands). Using generalized linear models I found that shrublands separate from other major vegetation types along a seasonal soil moisture gradient‚ with shrublands being the dominant vegetation type in areas with lower moisture.
    I then used MaxEnt‚ a species distribution model‚ to assess drivers of thedistributions of 29 shrub species that together represented dominant members of each of the six shrubland classes. In particular‚ I sought to determine whether the inclusion of soil characteristics‚ along with climate variables‚ improved models of species distributions. I found that whilst models calibrated with soil and climate were not significantly more powerful than those calibrated with only climate variables‚ for some species projections of the distribution of suitable habitat differed substantially across these models. This led to regional differences in projected species richness‚ highlighting the value of exploring a broader range of predictor variables when developing models‚ rather than relying solely on climate.
    Finally‚ I examined spatial changes to the distribution of suitable habitat for the 29 shrub species that may occur due to climate change. Given uncertainty in the direction of future precipitation changes‚ I compared distribution patterns that may result under a hot‚ dry future versus a warm‚ wet future. In general‚ the size of suitable habitat was projected to decline for most species‚ with greater contractions in central and western regions of Australia and some extensions in temperate regions. Importantly‚ for some species the direction and magnitude of projected changes varied between models calibrated with only climate variables versus those calibrated with climate and soil variables. The net impact of this meant that different regional patterns in species richness may be projected as a result of model calibration and future climate scenario.
    This thesis has identified the climate envelopes of shrublands and dominant Australian shrub species; highlighted the importance of considering soil properties when modelling plant species distributions; demonstrated potential impacts of climate change and how patterns of species richness may vary depending on whether the future is warm and wet or hot and dry; and revealed uncertainty in projections of future suitable habitat that may occur due to selection of predictor variables.
    Citation

    Hageer, Y. (2015). Modelling the distributions of Australian shrublands and shrub species: the role of climate and soil properties [PhD]. Macquarie University.

  39. Sing, A. E. (2015). Forest ecosystem water use: does species identity and ecosystem composition matter? [PhD]. Western Sydney University (Australia).
    http://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:37544

    Abstract

    Transpirational water use by trees has been long known to be regulated by evaporative demand and temperature‚ solar radiation‚ stomatal conductance and tree leaf area. More recently control of transpiration by plant hydraulic traits has been highlighted‚ and these as well as stomatal conductance and its response to air saturation vapour pressure deficit remain unstudied for the majority of Australian native tree species. To predict how forested ecosystem water use may change under future climates and enable better estimates of catchment water losses‚ we must understand stomatal and hydraulic behaviour of trees in the field under a range of conditions. In this study‚ I quantified traits describing stomatal and hydraulic behaviour for five Eucalyptus species from differing climates. Patterns in whole tree water use‚ stomatal sensitivity and responses to low water availability of these species in a common garden were correlated with species identity and with their characteristic climate of origin. I found that different Eucalyptus species employed different strategies to deal with water deficits which were linked to hydraulic‚ anatomical and leaf tissue water relations characteristics‚ and also with the original climatic range of the species. Tree water use‚ growth and tolerance of low water availability were enhanced in species mixtures compared to monocultures‚ an effect ascribed to asymmetric competition of component species in these mixtures. A basis for incorporating species stomatal and hydraulic parameters into forest stand-level water use models is provided. Ultimately‚ doing so will enhance predictions of water use‚ and enable estimates of stand water-use efficiency and productivity under current and future climate conditions. The findings are key to inform plantation and land management decisions‚ and can assist in the identification of vulnerable species or ecosystems‚ and the conservation of catchment water supplies in a changing climate.
    Citation

    Sing, A. E. (2015). Forest ecosystem water use: does species identity and ecosystem composition matter? [PhD]. Western Sydney University (Australia).

  40. Trumbo, D. R. (2015). Landscape genomics and species range limit evolution of the invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina) in Australia [PhD]. Washington State University.
    http://search.proquest.com/openview/605b92e2de6bf3ec220791a006d00a38/1.pdf?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y#page=29

    Abstract

    The cane toad (Rhinella [Bufo] marina) is one of only three amphibians to be named one of the top 100 world’s worst invasive species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. This large‚ Neotropical toad has been introduced and become invasive in over 40 countries in tropical and subtropical ecosystems around the world. The largest and arguably most damaging invasion site is in Australia. Originally introduced in 1935 as a biocontrol agent to control sugar cane beetle pests‚ the toad has since expanded its Australian range across nearly 20% of the continent’s landmass. It is still expanding its range in northwest Australia‚ while range edges in eastern and southern Australia are relatively stable. Species invasions‚ although unfortunate‚ provide unique opportunities to study the evolutionary and ecological causes for species’ geographic range limits. This field has had an abundance of theoretical development over the last few decades‚ but fewer empirical studies. Understanding species’ range limits in natural systems has become an urgent priority because global warming‚ exotic species invasions‚ and habitat alteration are currently changing the distributions of many species around the world. We used the cane toad invasion of Australia as a model system to study the ecological and evolutionary causes for species’ geographic range limits in a landscape genomics framework. Using next generation sequencing we developed approximately 28‚000 genomic markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms) for population and landscape genomic analyses. We first investigated general patterns of genomic diversity and differentiation across the cane toad’s Australian range in the context of species’ range limits. We found that the ‘central marginal hypothesis’ for species’ range limits is supported. We then used genetic differentiation outliers and genotype environment association analyses to detect genomic regions under selection. We found strong evidence for rapid evolution at the expanding invasion front‚ at even higher levels than stable range edges in eastern and southern Australia. Finally‚ we performed a common garden laboratory experiment and found phenotypic evidence of local adaptation to breeding pond temperatures at an arid inland edge‚ but not at a cold southern edge‚ of the cane toad’s Australian range.
    Citation

    Trumbo, D. R. (2015). Landscape genomics and species range limit evolution of the invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina) in Australia [PhD]. Washington State University.

2014

  1. Auerbach, N. A., Tulloch, A. I. T., & Possingham, H. P. (2014). Informed actions: Where to cost effectively manage multiple threats to species to maximize return on investment. Ecological Applications, 24, 1357–1373. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-0711.1

    Ecological Applications
    Abstract

    Conservation practitioners‚ faced with managing multiple threats to biodiversity and limited funding‚ must prioritize investment in different management actions. From an economic perspective‚ it is routine practice to invest where the highest rate of return is expected. This return-on-investment (ROI) thinking can also benefit species conservation‚ and researchers are developing sophisticated approaches to support decision-making for costeffective conservation. However‚ applied use of these approaches is limited. Managers may be wary of "black-box" algorithms or complex methods that are difficult to explain to funding agencies. As an alternative‚ we demonstrate the use of a basic ROI analysis for determining where to invest in cost-effective management to address threats to species. This method can be applied using basic geographic information system and spreadsheet calculations. We illustrate the approach in a management action prioritization for a biodiverse region of eastern Australia. We use ROI to prioritize management actions for two threats to a suite of threatened species: habitat degradation by cattle grazing‚ and predation by invasive red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We show how decisions based on cost-effective threat management depend upon how expected benefits to species are defined and how benefits and costs co-vary. By considering a combination of species richness‚ restricted habitats‚ species vulnerability‚ and costs of management actions‚ small investments can result in greater expected benefit compared with management decisions that consider only species richness. Furthermore‚ a landscape management strategy that implements multiple actions is more efficient than managing only for one threat‚ or more traditional approaches that don’t consider ROI. Our approach provides transparent and logical decision support for prioritizing different actions intended to abate threats associated with multiple species; it is of use when managers need a justifiable and repeatable approach to investment. © 2014 by the Ecological Society of America.
    Citation

    Auerbach, N. A., Tulloch, A. I. T., & Possingham, H. P. (2014). Informed actions: Where to cost effectively manage multiple threats to species to maximize return on investment. Ecological Applications, 24, 1357–1373. https://doi.org/10.1890/13-0711.1

  2. Ashcroft, M. B., Cavanagh, M., Eldridge, M. D. B., Gollan, J. R., & Daniel Kissling, W. (2014). Testing the ability of topoclimatic grids of extreme temperatures to explain the distribution of the endangered brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). Journal of Biogeography, 41, 1402–1413. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12298

    Journal of Biogeography
    abstract
    Citation

    Ashcroft, M. B., Cavanagh, M., Eldridge, M. D. B., Gollan, J. R., & Daniel Kissling, W. (2014). Testing the ability of topoclimatic grids of extreme temperatures to explain the distribution of the endangered brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). Journal of Biogeography, 41, 1402–1413. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12298

  3. Booth, T. H. (2014). Using biodiversity databases to verify and improve descriptions of tree species climatic requirements. Forest Ecology and Management, 315, 95–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.12.028

    Forest Ecology and Management
    Abstract

    Understanding tree species climatic adaptability‚ as well as climatic conditions within their natural distributions‚ is crucial for managing forests for both commercial and conservation objectives under climate change. Multi-million dollar investments in biodiversity databases are providing forestry professionals with freely accessible tools to carry out these kinds of analyses for many tree species. The climatic requirements of hundreds of tree species have been described in the commercially available Forestry Compendium developed by CAB International‚ but these descriptions have often relied on expert opinion where information is lacking. It is desirable that descriptions of tree species climatic requirements should‚ as far as possible‚ be explicit‚ quantitative and based on specific observations. This paper describes how the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) can provide specific observations to assist verifying and‚ where necessary‚ improving descriptions of tree species climatic requirements. It focuses mainly on Australian species as the ALA is one of the most sophisticated biodiversity databases currently available for a single country. However‚ the ALA also has international relevance as Australian eucalypts and acacias are important plantation species in many countries. Data in the GBIF complement the ALA data by providing very useful information on where Australian tree species are growing outside Australia. Analyses of a commercially important species (Eucalyptus nitens) and a lesser-known species (E. botryoides) demonstrate how descriptions of climatic requirements can be verified and‚ if necessary‚ improved. However‚ the general methods described have the potential to be applied to many tree species. Some of the advantages and disadvantages of these systems are discussed and possible improvements are suggested. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
    Citation

    Booth, T. H. (2014). Using biodiversity databases to verify and improve descriptions of tree species climatic requirements. Forest Ecology and Management, 315, 95–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.12.028

  4. Blackman, C. J., Gleason, S. M., Chang, Y., Cook, A. M., Laws, C., & Westoby, M. (2014). Leaf hydraulic vulnerability to drought is linked to site water availability across a broad range of species and climates. Annals of Botany, 114, 435–440. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcu131

    Annals of Botany
    Abstract

    Background and Aims Vulnerability of the leaf hydraulic pathway to water-stress-induced dysfunction is a key component of drought tolerance in plants and may be important in defining species’ climatic range. However‚ the generality of the association between leaf hydraulic vulnerability and climate across species and sites remains to be tested.
    Methods Leaf hydraulic vulnerability to drought (P50(leaf)‚ the water potential inducing 50% loss in hydraulic function) was measured in a diverse group of 92 woody‚ mostly evergreen angiosperms from sites across a wide range of habitats. These new data together with some previously published were tested against key climate indices related to water availability. Differences in within-site variability in P50(leaf) between sites were also examined.
    Key Results Values of hydraulic vulnerability to drought in leaves decreased strongly (i.e. became more negative) with decreasing annual rainfall and increasing aridity across sites. The standard deviation in P50(leaf) values recorded within each site was positively correlated with increasing aridity. P50(leaf) was also a good indicator of the climatic envelope across each species’ distributional range as well as their dry-end distributional limits within Australia‚ although this relationship was not consistently detectable within sites.
    Conclusions The findings indicate that species sorting processes have influenced distributional patterns of P50(leaf) across the rainfall spectrum‚ but alternative strategies for dealing with water deficit exist within sites. The strong link to aridity suggests leaf hydraulic vulnerability may influence plant distributions under future climates.
    Citation

    Blackman, C. J., Gleason, S. M., Chang, Y., Cook, A. M., Laws, C., & Westoby, M. (2014). Leaf hydraulic vulnerability to drought is linked to site water availability across a broad range of species and climates. Annals of Botany, 114, 435–440. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcu131

  5. Booth, T. H., Jovanovic, T., & Harwood, C. E. (2014). A generic method for climate change impact analysis of tree species planting domains. New Forests, 45, 507–522. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-014-9413-0

    New Forests
    Abstract

    A trial application is described‚ largely using freely available datasets‚ for the preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on planting domains of key plantation species. The example study examines how climate change may affect locations in parts of South East Asia and southern China suitable for growing Acacia mangium‚ A. auriculiformis and A. crassicarpa. Simple descriptions of their climatic requirements are checked and‚ where necessary‚ refined. Climate data for current conditions as well as projected conditions in 2030‚ 2050 and 2080 are then used to map areas at a 10 min (about 18 km) resolution that are likely to have suitable climatic conditions for growing the species. Assuming a "business as usual" climate change scenario‚ climate change impacts are expected to be low in 2030‚ but likely to become medium by 2050 and high by 2080 as existing plantation sites increasingly fall outside the range of conditions known to be climatically suitable. Assessing likely impacts can help to identify plantations that are potentially most at risk‚ where performance should be carefully monitored to pick up early signs of any problems. The vulnerability of Acacia plantations of the three target species across the region is considered briefly in terms of the impacts of climate change and the ability of managers to adapt plantations to changing conditions. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
    Citation

    Booth, T. H., Jovanovic, T., & Harwood, C. E. (2014). A generic method for climate change impact analysis of tree species planting domains. New Forests, 45, 507–522. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11056-014-9413-0

  6. Bowman, V. C., Francis, J. E., Askin, R. A., Riding, J. B., & Swindles, G. T. (2014). Latest Cretaceous-earliest Paleogene vegetation and climate change at the high southern latitudes: palynological evidence from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 408, 26–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.04.018

    Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology
    Abstract

    Fluctuations in Late Cretaceous climate were already influencing biotic change prior to the environmental upheaval at the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary‚ but their general nature‚ magnitude and timing remain controversial. A high-resolution dataset on terrestrially-derived palynomorphs is presented from the high southern palaeolatitudes that unlocks details of small-scale climate variability throughout this period of significant global change. Specifically‚ this is a quantitative spore and pollen analysis of an expanded uppermost Cretaceous to lowermost Paleogene (Maastrichtian-earliest Danian) shallow marine sedimentary succession from Seymour Island‚ off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula‚ then (as now) located at similar to 65 degrees S. Using nearest living relatives the first detailed vegetation‚ habitat and climate reconstruction is presented for the emergent volcanic arc at this time. On the coastal lowlands‚ a cool to warm temperate rainforest is envisaged growing in a riverine landscape‚ with both wet (river margin‚ pond) and relatively dry (interfluve‚ canopy gap) habitats. Diverse podocarps and southern beech trees grew alongside angiosperm herbs and shrubs in mean annual temperatures of similar to 10-15 degrees C. Higher altitude araucarian forests gave way to open ericaceous heathland‚ beyond the tree line‚ in subalpine to alpine conditions with mean annual temperatures of a cold similar to 5-8 degrees C. There is no exact modern botanical equivalent‚ but the closest modern flora is that of the Andes of southern Chile and Argentina. Maastrichtian climate is shown to have fluctuated from cool‚ humid conditions‚ through a rapid warming similar to 2 million years prior to the K-Pg transition‚ followed by cooling during the earliest Danian‚ a trend supported by previous work on this interval. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
    Citation

    Bowman, V. C., Francis, J. E., Askin, R. A., Riding, J. B., & Swindles, G. T. (2014). Latest Cretaceous-earliest Paleogene vegetation and climate change at the high southern latitudes: palynological evidence from Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 408, 26–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.04.018

  7. Capinha, C., Vermeulen, J. J., bin Lakim, M., Schilthuizen, M., & Kappes, H. (2014). Susceptibility of tropical mountain forests to biological invasions from the temperate and subtropical zone, exemplified by Zonitoides (Gastropoda: Gastrodontidae). Raffles Bulletin of Zoology, 62, 600–609.
    https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/publications/susceptibility-of-tropical-mountain-forests-to-biological-invasions-from-the-temperate-and-subtropical-zone-exemplified-by-zonitoides-gastropoda-gastrodontidae(13380536-0132-4f09-9f15-094d3a6a26e4)/export.html

    Raffles Bulletin of Zoology
    abstract
    Citation

    Capinha, C., Vermeulen, J. J., bin Lakim, M., Schilthuizen, M., & Kappes, H. (2014). Susceptibility of tropical mountain forests to biological invasions from the temperate and subtropical zone, exemplified by Zonitoides (Gastropoda: Gastrodontidae). Raffles Bulletin of Zoology, 62, 600–609.

  8. Dillon, S., McEvoy, R., Baldwin, D. S., Rees, G. N., Parsons, Y., & Southerton, S. (2014). Characterisation of adaptive genetic diversity in environmentally contrasted populations of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh. (river red gum). PLoS ONE, 9, e103515. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0103515

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    As an increasing number of ecosystems face departures from long standing environmental conditions under climate change‚ our understanding of the capacity of species to adapt will become important for directing conservation and management of biodiversity. Insights into the potential for genetic adaptation might be gained by assessing genomic signatures of adaptation to historic or prevailing environmental conditions. The river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh.) is a widespread Australian eucalypt inhabiting riverine and floodplain habitats which spans strong environmental gradients. We investigated the effects of adaptation to environment on population level genetic diversity of E. camaldulensis‚ examining SNP variation in candidate gene loci sampled across 20 climatically diverse populations approximating the species natural distribution. Genetic differentiation among populations was high (F(ST) = 17%)‚ exceeding previous estimates based on neutral markers. Complementary statistical approaches identified 6 SNP loci in four genes (COMT‚ Dehydrin‚ ERECTA and PIP2) which‚ after accounting for demographic effects‚ exhibited higher than expected levels of genetic differentiation among populations and whose allelic variation was associated with local environment. While this study employs but a small proportion of available diversity in the eucalyptus genome‚ it draws our attention to the potential for application of wide spread eucalypt species to test adaptive hypotheses.
    Citation

    Dillon, S., McEvoy, R., Baldwin, D. S., Rees, G. N., Parsons, Y., & Southerton, S. (2014). Characterisation of adaptive genetic diversity in environmentally contrasted populations of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh. (river red gum). PLoS ONE, 9, e103515. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0103515

  9. Ekins, M., & Gershwin, L. (2014). First record of the Caribbean box jellyfish Tripedalia cystophora in Australian waters. Marine Biodiversity Records, 7. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755267214001183

    Marine Biodiversity Records
    Abstract

    This is the first published report of this species in Australia as well as the Indian Ocean (Seychelles)‚ Thailand and Grand Bahama. Originally described from Jamaica‚ Tripedalia cystophora has since been found in the Philippines‚ Ecuador‚ Japan‚ Puerto Rico‚ Brazil‚ Indonesia and Florida. Moreover‚ this report from Australia is now the southerly-most locality for this species‚ bringing its total global distribution from 32°N to 28°S latitude. Because of its broad and expanding distribution‚ and its preferred habitat of mangrove thickets that occur at higher latitudes than its current distribution‚ T. cystophora may become a model organism for tracking climate-related high latitude range expansion. © Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom 2014.
    Citation

    Ekins, M., & Gershwin, L. (2014). First record of the Caribbean box jellyfish Tripedalia cystophora in Australian waters. Marine Biodiversity Records, 7. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755267214001183

  10. Donaldson, J. E., Hui, C., Richardson, D. M., Robertson, M. P., Webber, B. L., & Wilson, J. R. (2014). Invasion trajectory of alien trees: the role of introduction pathway and planting history. Global Change Biology, 20, 1527–1537. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12486

    Global Change Biology
    Abstract

    Global change is driving a massive rearrangement of the world’s biota. Trajectories of distributional shifts are shaped by species traits‚ the recipient environment and driving forces with many of the driving forces directly due to human activities. The relative importance of each in determining the distributions of introduced species is poorly understood. We consider 11 Australian Acacia species introduced to South Africa for different reasons (commercial forestry‚ dune stabilization and ornamentation) to determine how features of the introduction pathway have shaped their invasion history. Projections from species distribution models (SDMs) were developed to assess how the reason for introduction influences the similarity between climatic envelopes in native and alien ranges. A lattice model for an idealized invasion was developed to assess the relative contribution of intrinsic traits and introduction dynamics on the abundance and extent over the course of simulated invasions. SDMs show that alien populations of ornamental species in South Africa occupy substantially different climate space from their native ranges‚ whereas species introduced for forestry occupy a similar climate space in native and introduced ranges. This may partly explain the slow spread rates observed for some alien ornamental plants. Such mismatches are likely to become less pronounced with the current drive towards ’eco gardens’ resulting in more introductions of ornamental species with a close climate match between native and newly introduced regions. The results from the lattice model showed that the conditions associated with the introduction pathway (especially introduction pressure) dominate early invasion dynamics. The placement of introduction foci in urban areas limited the extent and abundance of invasive populations. Features of introduction events appear to initially mask the influence of intrinsic species traits on invasions and help to explain the relative success of species introduced for different purposes. Introduction dynamics therefore can have long-lasting influences on the outcomes of species redistributions‚ and must be explicitly considered in management plans.
    Citation

    Donaldson, J. E., Hui, C., Richardson, D. M., Robertson, M. P., Webber, B. L., & Wilson, J. R. (2014). Invasion trajectory of alien trees: the role of introduction pathway and planting history. Global Change Biology, 20, 1527–1537. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12486

  11. Gonzalez-Orozco, C. E., Ebach, M. C., Laffan, S., Thornhill, A. H., Knerr, N. J., Schmidt-Lebuhn, A. N., Cargill, C. C., Clements, M., Nagalingum, N. S., Mishler, B. D., & Miller, J. T. (2014). Quantifying phytogeographical regions of Australia using geospatial turnover in species composition. PLoS ONE, 9, e92558. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092558

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    The largest digitized dataset of land plant distributions in Australia assembled to date (750‚741 georeferenced herbarium records; 6‚043 species) was used to partition the Australian continent into phytogeographical regions. We used a set of six widely distributed vascular plant groups and three non-vascular plant groups which together occur in a variety of landscapes/habitats across Australia. Phytogeographical regions were identified using quantitative analyses of species turnover‚ the rate of change in species composition between sites‚ calculated as Simpson’s beta. We propose six major phytogeographical regions for Australia: Northern‚ Northern Desert‚ Eremaean‚ Eastern Queensland‚ Euronotian and South-Western. Our new phytogeographical regions show a spatial agreement of 65% with respect to previously defined phytogeographical regions of Australia. We also confirm that these new regions are in general agreement with the biomes of Australia and other contemporary biogeographical classifications. To assess the meaningfulness of the proposed phytogeographical regions‚ we evaluated how they relate to broad scale environmental gradients. Physiographic factors such as geology do not have a strong correspondence with our proposed regions. Instead‚ we identified climate as the main environmental driver. The use of an unprecedentedly large dataset of multiple plant groups‚ coupled with an explicit quantitative analysis‚ makes this study novel and allows an improved historical bioregionalization scheme for Australian plants. Our analyses show that: (1) there is considerable overlap between our results and older biogeographic classifications; (2) phytogeographical regions based on species turnover can be a powerful tool to further partition the landscape into meaningful units; (3) further studies using phylogenetic turnover metrics are needed to test the taxonomic areas.
    Citation

    Gonzalez-Orozco, C. E., Ebach, M. C., Laffan, S., Thornhill, A. H., Knerr, N. J., Schmidt-Lebuhn, A. N., Cargill, C. C., Clements, M., Nagalingum, N. S., Mishler, B. D., & Miller, J. T. (2014). Quantifying phytogeographical regions of Australia using geospatial turnover in species composition. PLoS ONE, 9, e92558. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092558

  12. Gonzalez-Orozco, C. E., Thornhill, A. H., Knerr, N., Laffan, S., & Miller, J. T. (2014). Biogeographical regions and phytogeography of the eucalypts. Diversity and Distributions, 20, 46–58. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12129

    Diversity and Distributions
    Abstract

    AimTo map spatial patterns of species richness‚ species endemism and species turnover of the eucalypts; to propose a biogeographical regionalization of eucalypts based on species turnover; and to identify the environmental correlates of these patterns.
    LocationAustralia and Malesia.
    MethodsWe analysed 798 eucalypt species (Angophora‚ Corymbia and Eucalyptus) with distributions across Australia and Malesia using square cells with a resolution of 100x100km. Species richness‚ endemism and species turnover were calculated. Phytogeographical regions were identified using an agglomerative cluster analysis derived from a matrix of pairwise Simpson’s beta ((sim)) dissimilarity values. Eleven environmental variables were used to analyse the environmental correlates of species turnover. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) of the (sim)‚ Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot spatial statistics and an ordination of the (sim) -NMDS were used to investigate the environmental drivers at the continental level and for each of the phytogeographical regions.
    ResultsWe identified three centres of species richness and fourteen of endemism‚ of which several are newly identified. The main centres of species richness agree with previous studies. Six major eucalypt phytogeographical regions are proposed based on the species turnover: monsoon‚ tropical/subtropical‚ south-east‚ south-west‚ Eremaean north and Eremaean south. These findings are supported by significant environmental differences of the NMDS vectors and the Gi* statistics. The environmental drivers of species turnover are broadly consistent with the continental patterns of summer and winter rainfall below and above the Tropic of Capricorn.
    Main conclusionsThe proposed phytogeographical regions are similar to the Australian biomes. Climate is the main driver of the phytogeographical regions‚ varying from region to region. Comprehensive bioregionalization frameworks and phytogeography updates‚ as proposed here‚ are fundamental for enhancing our understanding of the spatial distribution of biodiversity and therefore benefit global biogeography and help planners to identify regions of high conservation relevance.
    Citation

    Gonzalez-Orozco, C. E., Thornhill, A. H., Knerr, N., Laffan, S., & Miller, J. T. (2014). Biogeographical regions and phytogeography of the eucalypts. Diversity and Distributions, 20, 46–58. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12129

  13. Hill, L. (2014). Lesser armyworm,’Spodoptera exigua’(Hubner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a vagrant moth in Tasmania. Plant Protection Quarterly, 29, 131–142.
    https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=950421781107211;res=IELAPA

    Plant Protection Quarterly
    abstract
    Citation

    Hill, L. (2014). Lesser armyworm,’Spodoptera exigua’(Hubner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a vagrant moth in Tasmania. Plant Protection Quarterly, 29, 131–142.

  14. Jacobs, L. E. O., Richardson, D. M., & Wilson, J. R. U. (2014). Melaleuca parvistaminea Byrnes (Myrtaceae) in South Africa: Invasion risk and feasibility of eradication. South African Journal of Botany, 94, 24–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sajb.2014.05.002

    South African Journal of Botany
    Abstract

    We document and assess management options for the first reported invasion of Melaleuca parvistaminea Byrnes (initially identified as M. ericifolla) in the world‚ in the context of a South African wetland ecosystem. Delimitation surveys indicate that the entire invasion is restricted to three sites between Tulbagh and Wolseley and that populations are only associated with areas currently or previously covered by pine plantations (primarily Pinus radiata). To estimate abundance we surveyed 42% of the three identified areas and found similar to 26‚000 plants over 1800 ha (condensed canopy area of 1.15 ha). At least 63% of recorded plants were seedlings or juveniles‚ mostly <4 yrs old‚ and most occurred in seasonally inundated (but not waterlogged) habitats. M. parvistaminea creates monospecific stands that overtop the native shrubland vegetation (Breede Shale Renosterveld) and is thus considered a potential transformer species. Species distribution modelling also revealed large areas of climatically suitable habitat in the Western Cape‚ pointing to substantial invasion debt for the species in South Africa. Felling triggers seed release from serotinous capsules‚ resulting in prolific seedling recruitment after winter rains (up to similar to 18‚000 seedlings/m(2)). No evidence of a soil-stored seed bank was found‚ and when plants are cut at ground level or treated with herbicide after cutting‚ plants do not resprout The invasive populations of this water-dispersed species are close to major rivers (the Berg and Breede)‚ but the intervening countryside is largely transformed and is unfavourable for establishment. Much of the area downstream from the invaded area is open vegetation that is unsuitable for major recruitment but easy to survey and detect small plants. Consequently‚ although the extent of invasion is large (potentially 9185 ha)‚ the invasion can be delimited with some confidence‚ and eradication is considered achievable since seeds only survive for about a year‚ seedlings achieve maturity after 4 years‚ and because the species is an obligate reseeder. Given the threats posed‚ eradication is desirable and M. parvistaminea should be listed as a category-1a invader (requiring compulsory control) under the proposed invasive species regulations under South Africa’s National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act (10/2004). We estimate that search and destroy operations could eradicate the species by 2021 at a cost of ZAR 3 475 000 (US 355 400). (C) 2014 SAAB. Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Jacobs, L. E. O., Richardson, D. M., & Wilson, J. R. U. (2014). Melaleuca parvistaminea Byrnes (Myrtaceae) in South Africa: Invasion risk and feasibility of eradication. South African Journal of Botany, 94, 24–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sajb.2014.05.002

  15. McLean, E. H., Prober, S. M., Stock, W. D., Steane, D. A., Potts, B. M., Vaillancourt, R. E., & Byrne, M. (2014). Plasticity of functional traits varies clinally along a rainfall gradient in Eucalyptus tricarpa. Plant Cell and Environment, 37, 1440–1451. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.12251

    Plant Cell and Environment
    Abstract

    Widespread species often occur across a range of climatic conditions‚ through a combination of local genetic adaptations and phenotypic plasticity. Species with greater phenotypic plasticity are likely to be better positioned to cope with rapid anthropogenic climate changes‚ while those displaying strong local adaptations might benefit from translocations to assist the movement of adaptive genes as the climate changes. Eucalyptus tricarpa occurs across a climatic gradient in south-eastern Australia‚ a region of increasing aridity‚ and we hypothesized that this species would display local adaptation to climate. We measured morphological and physiological traits reflecting climate responses in nine provenances from sites of 460 to 1040 mm annual rainfall‚ in their natural habitat and in common gardens near each end of the gradient. Local adaptation was evident in functional traits and differential growth rates in the common gardens. Some traits displayed complex combinations of plasticity and genetic divergence among provenances‚ including clinal variation in plasticity itself. Provenances from drier locations were more plastic in leaf thickness‚ whereas leaf size was more plastic in provenances from higher rainfall locations. Leaf density and stomatal physiology (as indicated by delta(13)C and delta(18)O) were highly and uniformly plastic. In addition to variation in mean trait values‚ genetic variation in trait plasticity may play a role in climate adaptation.
    Citation

    McLean, E. H., Prober, S. M., Stock, W. D., Steane, D. A., Potts, B. M., Vaillancourt, R. E., & Byrne, M. (2014). Plasticity of functional traits varies clinally along a rainfall gradient in Eucalyptus tricarpa. Plant Cell and Environment, 37, 1440–1451. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.12251

  16. Mellick, R., Wilson, P. D., & Rossetto, M. (2014). Demographic history and niche conservatism of tropical rainforest trees separated along an altitudinal gradient of a biogeographic barrier. Australian Journal of Botany, 62, 438–450. https://doi.org/10.1071/Bt14103

    Australian Journal of Botany
    Abstract

    The genetic disjunctions and distributions of long-lived species provide valuable signatures of past demographic response to environmental change. Here we use genetic markers to study two Elaeocarpus species from the Australian Wet Tropics to understand changes in palaeodistribution and demography associated with environmental change on either side of the Black Mountain Corridor (BMC). Contrasting the genetic structure of species with different distributions along altitudinal gradients is important to explore some of the environmental drivers of adaptive evolution. Using coalescent-based molecular and environmental niche models‚ we investigate the demographic history of two long-lived‚ altitudinally differentiated species that were previously identified as genetically divergent across the BMC. The origin of the genetic disjunction across the BMC is inferred to have occurred during the last glacial cycle in relation to 13 combined molecular histories of both plastid and nuclear loci. Interestingly‚ whereas midland populations show a dynamic history of expansion and contraction‚ the highland populations do not. Molecular history and environmental niche models show the populations north of the BMC have remained relatively stable over time in response to environmental change. Populations south of the BMC have been more dynamic in response to environmental change. These differences are likely to highlight the topographical character and environmental heterogeneity of areas separated by the BMC.
    Citation

    Mellick, R., Wilson, P. D., & Rossetto, M. (2014). Demographic history and niche conservatism of tropical rainforest trees separated along an altitudinal gradient of a biogeographic barrier. Australian Journal of Botany, 62, 438–450. https://doi.org/10.1071/Bt14103

  17. Mokany, K., Prasad, S., & Westcott, D. A. (2014). Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change. Nature Communications, 5, 3971. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4971

    Nature Communications
    Abstract

    The capacity of species to track shifting climates into the future will strongly influence outcomes for biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate. However‚ we know remarkably little about the dispersal abilities of most species and how these may be influenced by climate change. Here we show that climate change is projected to substantially reduce the seed dispersal services provided by frugivorous vertebrates in rainforests across the Australian Wet Tropics. Our model projections show reductions in both median and long-distance seed dispersal‚ which may markedly reduce the capacity of many rainforest plant species to track shifts in suitable habitat under climate change. However‚ our analyses suggest that active management to maintain the abundances of a small set of important frugivores under climate change could markedly reduce the projected loss of seed dispersal services and facilitate shifting distributions of rainforest plant species.
    Citation

    Mokany, K., Prasad, S., & Westcott, D. A. (2014). Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change. Nature Communications, 5, 3971. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4971

  18. Mokany, K., Westcott, D. A., Prasad, S., Ford, A. J., & Metcalfe, D. J. (2014). Identifying priority areas for conservation and management in diverse tropical forests. PLoS ONE, 9, e89084. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0089084

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    The high concentration of the world’s species in tropical forests endows these systems with particular importance for retaining global biodiversity‚ yet it also presents significant challenges for ecology and conservation science. The vast number of rare and yet to be discovered species restricts the applicability of species-level modelling for tropical forests‚ while the capacity of community classification approaches to identify priorities for conservation and management is also limited. Here we assessed the degree to which macroecological modelling can overcome shortfalls in our knowledge of biodiversity in tropical forests and help identify priority areas for their conservation and management. We used 527 plant community survey plots in the Australian Wet Tropics to generate models and predictions of species richness‚ compositional dissimilarity‚ and community composition for all the 4‚313 vascular plant species recorded across the region (>1.3 million communities (grid cells)). We then applied these predictions to identify areas of tropical forest likely to contain the greatest concentration of species‚ rare species‚ endemic species and primitive angiosperm families. Synthesising these alternative attributes of diversity into a single index of conservation value‚ we identified two areas within the Australian wet tropics that should be a high priority for future conservation actions: the Atherton Tablelands and Daintree rainforest. Our findings demonstrate the value of macroecological modelling in identifying priority areas for conservation and management actions within highly diverse systems‚ such as tropical forests.
    Citation

    Mokany, K., Westcott, D. A., Prasad, S., Ford, A. J., & Metcalfe, D. J. (2014). Identifying priority areas for conservation and management in diverse tropical forests. PLoS ONE, 9, e89084. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0089084

  19. Moodley, D., Geerts, S., Rebelo, T., Richardson, D. M., & Wilson, J. R. U. (2014). Site-specific conditions influence plant naturalization: The case of alien Proteaceae in South Africa. Acta Oecologica, 59, 62–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2014.05.005

    Acta Oecologica
    Abstract

    The outcome of plant introductions is often considered in binary terms (invasive or non-invasive). However‚ most species experience a time lag before naturalization occurs‚ and many species become naturalized at some sites but not at others. It is therefore important to understand the site-specific mechanisms underlying naturalization. Proteaceae is an interesting case as some species are widespread invaders‚ while others‚ despite a long history of cultivation‚ show no signs of naturalization. At least 26 non-native Proteaceae species have been introduced to‚ and are cultivated in‚ South Africa. We mapped populations and examined differences between naturalized and non-naturalized populations (e.g. propagule pressure‚ land use and bioclimatic suitability). Of the 15 species surveyed‚ 6 were naturalized at one or more sites. Of these‚ Hakea salicifolia is most widely cultivated‚ but is only naturalizing in some areas (32 naturalized populations out of 62 populations that were surveyed). We found propagule pressure to be the most important determinant of naturalization for H. salicifolia. However‚ in suboptimal climatic conditions‚ naturalization only occurred if micro-site conditions were suitable‚ i.e. there was some disturbance and water available. For the other naturalized species there were few sites to compare‚ but we came to similar conclusions - Banksia integrifolia only naturalized at the site where it was planted the longest; Banksia serrata only naturalized at a site influenced by fire regimes; while Banksia formosa naturalized at sites with high propagule pressure‚ absence of fires and where there is no active clearing of the plants. Naturalization of Proteaceae in South Africa appears to be strongly mediated by site-specific anthropogenic activities (e.g. many planted individuals and water availability). More broadly‚ we argue that invasion biology needs to focus more closely on the mechanisms by which species and pathways interact to determine the likelihood and consequence of an invasion. (C) 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Moodley, D., Geerts, S., Rebelo, T., Richardson, D. M., & Wilson, J. R. U. (2014). Site-specific conditions influence plant naturalization: The case of alien Proteaceae in South Africa. Acta Oecologica, 59, 62–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actao.2014.05.005

  20. Nevill, P. G., Bradbury, D., Williams, A., Tomlinson, S., & Krauss, S. L. (2014). Genetic and palaeo-climatic evidence for widespread persistence of the coastal tree species Eucalyptus gomphocephala (Myrtaceae) during the Last Glacial Maximum. Annals of Botany, 113, 55–67. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mct253

    Annals of Botany
    Abstract

    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Few phylogeographic studies have been undertaken of species confined to narrow‚ linear coastal systems where past sea level and geomorphological changes may have had a profound effect on species population sizes and distributions. In this study‚ a phylogeographic analysis was conducted of Eucalyptus gomphocephala (tuart)‚ a tree species restricted to a 400 x 10 km band of coastal sand-plain in south west Australia. Here‚ there is little known about the response of coastal vegetation to glacial/interglacial climate change‚ and a test was made as to whether this species was likely to have persisted widely through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)‚ or conforms to a post-LGM dispersal model of recovery from few refugia. METHODS: The genetic structure over the entire range of tuart was assessed using seven nuclear (21 populations; n = 595) and four chloroplast (24 populations; n = 238) microsatellite markers designed for eucalypt species. Correlative palaeodistribution modelling was also conducted based on five climatic variables‚ within two LGM models. KEY RESULTS: The chloroplast markers generated six haplotypes‚ which were strongly geographically structured (GST = 0.86 and RST = 0.75). Nuclear microsatellite diversity was high (overall mean HE 0.75) and uniformly distributed (FST = 0.05)‚ with a strong pattern of isolation by distance (r(2) = 0.362‚ P = 0.001). Distribution models of E. gomphocephala during the LGM showed a wide distribution that extended at least 30 km westward from the current distribution to the palaeo-coastline. CONCLUSIONS: The chloroplast and nuclear data suggest wide persistence of E. gomphocephala during the LGM. Palaeodistribution modelling supports the conclusions drawn from genetic data and indicates a widespread westward shift of E. gomphocephala onto the exposed continental shelf during the LGM. This study highlights the importance of the inclusion of complementary‚ non-genetic data (information on geomorphology and palaeoclimate) to interpret phylogeographic patterns.
    Citation

    Nevill, P. G., Bradbury, D., Williams, A., Tomlinson, S., & Krauss, S. L. (2014). Genetic and palaeo-climatic evidence for widespread persistence of the coastal tree species Eucalyptus gomphocephala (Myrtaceae) during the Last Glacial Maximum. Annals of Botany, 113, 55–67. https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mct253

  21. Pavlova, A., Selwood, P., Harrisson, K. A., Murray, N., Quin, B., Menkhorst, P., Smales, I., & Sunnucks, P. (2014). Integrating phylogeography and morphometrics to assess conservation merits and inform conservation strategies for an endangered subspecies of a common bird species. Biological Conservation, 174, 136–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.04.005

    Biological Conservation
    Abstract

    Understanding the evolutionary history of threatened populations can improve their conservation management. Re-establishment of past but recent gene flow could re-invigorate threatened populations and replenish genetic diversity‚ necessary for population persistence. One of the four nominal subspecies of the common yellow-tufted honeyeater‚ Lichenostomus melanops cassidix‚ is critically endangered despite substantial conservation efforts over 55 years. Using a combination of morphometric‚ genetic and modeling approaches we tested for its evolutionary distinctiveness and conservation merit. We confirmed that cassidix has at least one morphometric distinction. It also differs genetically from the other subspecies in allele frequencies but not phylogenetically‚ implying that its evolution was recent. Modeling historical distribution supported a lack of vicariance and suggested possible gene flow among subspecies at least since the late Pleistocene. Multi-locus coalescent analyses indicated that cassidix diverged from its common ancestor with neighboring subspecies gippslandicus sometime from the mid-Pleistocene to the Holocene‚ and that it has the smallest historical effective population size of all subspecies. It appears that cassidix diverged from its ancestor with gippslandicus through a combination of drift and local selection. From patterns of genetic subdivision on two spatial scales and morphological variation we concluded that cassidix‚ gippslandicus and (melanops + meltoni) are diagnosable as subspecies. Low genetic diversity and effective population size of cassidix may translate to low genetic fitness and evolutionary potential‚ accordingly we recommend managed gene flow from gippslandicus (with which it can be inferred to have recently experienced natural gene flow) to favor recovery of cassidix. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Pavlova, A., Selwood, P., Harrisson, K. A., Murray, N., Quin, B., Menkhorst, P., Smales, I., & Sunnucks, P. (2014). Integrating phylogeography and morphometrics to assess conservation merits and inform conservation strategies for an endangered subspecies of a common bird species. Biological Conservation, 174, 136–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.04.005

  22. Porfirio, L. L., Harris, R. M., Lefroy, E. C., Hugh, S., Gould, S. F., Lee, G., Bindoff, N. L., & Mackey, B. (2014). Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change. PLoS ONE, 9, e113749. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113749

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    Choice of variables‚ climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However‚ an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables‚ climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly)‚ and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection‚ climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled‚ but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management‚ and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.
    Citation

    Porfirio, L. L., Harris, R. M., Lefroy, E. C., Hugh, S., Gould, S. F., Lee, G., Bindoff, N. L., & Mackey, B. (2014). Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change. PLoS ONE, 9, e113749. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113749

  23. Potts, J. M., Beeton, N. J., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Williamson, G. J., Lefroy, E. C., & Johnson, C. N. (2014). Predicting the future range and abundance of fallow deer in Tasmania, Australia. Wildlife Research, 41. https://doi.org/10.1071/wr13206

    Wildlife Research
    abstract
    Citation

    Potts, J. M., Beeton, N. J., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Williamson, G. J., Lefroy, E. C., & Johnson, C. N. (2014). Predicting the future range and abundance of fallow deer in Tasmania, Australia. Wildlife Research, 41. https://doi.org/10.1071/wr13206

  24. Rosauer, D. F., Ferrier, S., Williams, K. J., Manion, G., Keogh, J. S., & Laffan, S. W. (2014). Phylogenetic generalised dissimilarity modelling: a new approach to analysing and predicting spatial turnover in the phylogenetic composition of communities. Ecography, 37, 21–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00466.x

    Ecography
    Ecography
    abstract
    Citation

    Rosauer, D. F., Ferrier, S., Williams, K. J., Manion, G., Keogh, J. S., & Laffan, S. W. (2014). Phylogenetic generalised dissimilarity modelling: a new approach to analysing and predicting spatial turnover in the phylogenetic composition of communities. Ecography, 37, 21–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00466.x

  25. Steane, D. A., Potts, B. M., McLean, E., Prober, S. M., Stock, W. D., Vaillancourt, R. E., & Byrne, M. (2014). Genome-wide scans detect adaptation to aridity in a widespread forest tree species. Molecular Ecology, 23, 2500–2513. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.12751

    Molecular Ecology
    Abstract

    Patterns of adaptive variation within plant species are best studied through common garden experiments‚ but these are costly and time-consuming‚ especially for trees that have long generation times. We explored whether genome-wide scanning technology combined with outlier marker detection could be used to detect adaptation to climate and provide an alternative to common garden experiments. As a case study‚ we sampled nine provenances of the widespread forest tree species‚ Eucalyptus tricarpa‚ across an aridity gradient in southeastern Australia. Using a Bayesian analysis‚ we identified a suite of 94 putatively adaptive (outlying) sequence-tagged markers across the genome. Population-level allele frequencies of these outlier markers were strongly correlated with temperature and moisture availability at the site of origin‚ and with population differences in functional traits measured in two common gardens. Using the output from a canonical analysis of principal coordinates‚ we devised a metric that provides a holistic measure of genomic adaptation to aridity that could be used to guide assisted migration or genetic augmentation.
    Citation

    Steane, D. A., Potts, B. M., McLean, E., Prober, S. M., Stock, W. D., Vaillancourt, R. E., & Byrne, M. (2014). Genome-wide scans detect adaptation to aridity in a widespread forest tree species. Molecular Ecology, 23, 2500–2513. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.12751

  26. Vidal-García, M., Byrne, P. G., Roberts, J. D., & Keogh, J. S. (2014). The role of phylogeny and ecology in shaping morphology in 21 genera and 127 species of Australo-Papuan myobatrachid frogs. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 27, 181–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeb.12292

    Journal of Evolutionary Biology
    Abstract

    Body shape is predicted to differ among species for functional reasons and in relation to environmental niche and phylogenetic history. We quantified morphological differences in shape and size among 98.5% of the 129 species and all 21 genera of the Australo-Papuan endemic myobatrachid frogs to test the hypothesis that habitat type predicts body shape in this radiation. We tested this hypothesis in a phylogenetic context at two taxonomic levels: across the entire radiation and within the four largest genera. Thirty-four external measurements were taken on 623 museum specimens representing 127 species. Data for seven key environmental variables relevant to anurans were assembled for all Australian-distributed species based on species’ distributions and 131‚306 locality records. The Australo-Papuan myobatrachid radiation showed high diversity in adult body size‚ ranging from minute (15 mm snout-vent length) to very large species (92 mm)‚ and shape‚ particularly sin relative limb length. Five main morphological and environmental summary variables displayed strong phylogenetic signal. There was no clear relationship between body size and environmental niche‚ and this result persisted following phylogenetic correction. For most species‚ there was a better match between environment/habitat and body shape‚ but this relationship did not persist following phylogenetic correction. At a broad level‚ species fell into three broad groups based on environmental niche and body shape: 1) species in wet habitats with relatively long limbs‚ 2) species in arid environments with relatively short limbs (many of which are forward or backward burrowers) and 3) habitat generalist species with a conservative body shape. However‚ these patterns were not repeated within the four largest genera - Crinia‚ Limnodynastes‚ Pseudophryne and Uperoleia. Each of these genera displayed a highly conservative anuran body shape‚ yet individual species were distributed across the full spectrum of Australian environments. Our results suggest that phylogenetic legacy is important in the evolution of body size and shape in Australian anurans‚ but also that the conservative body plan of many frogs works well in a wide variety of habitats. © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.
    Citation

    Vidal-García, M., Byrne, P. G., Roberts, J. D., & Keogh, J. S. (2014). The role of phylogeny and ecology in shaping morphology in 21 genera and 127 species of Australo-Papuan myobatrachid frogs. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 27, 181–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeb.12292

  27. Williamson, G. J., Prior, L. D., Grose, M. R., Harris, R. M. B., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2014). Projecting canopy cover change in Tasmanian eucalypt forests using dynamically downscaled regional climate models. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1373–1386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0577-5

    Regional Environmental Change
    Abstract

    Loss of forest cover is a likely consequence of climate change in many parts of the world. To test the vulnerability of eucalypt forests in Australia’s island state of Tasmania‚ we modelled tree canopy cover in the period 2070-2099 under a high-emission scenario using the current climate-canopy cover relationship in conjunction with output from a dynamically downscaled regional climate model. The current climate-canopy cover relationship was quantified using Random Forest modelling‚ and the future climate projections were provided by three dynamically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Three GCMs were used to show a range of projections for the selected scenario. We also explored the sensitivity of key endemic and non-endemic Tasmanian eucalypts to climate change. All GCMs suggested that canopy cover should remain stable (proportional cover change < 10 %) across similar to 70 % of the Tasmanian eucalypt forests. However‚ there were geographic areas where all models projected a decline in canopy cover due to increased summer temperatures and lower precipitation‚ and in addition‚ all models projected an increase in canopy cover in the coldest part of the state. The model projections differed substantially for other areas. Tasmanian endemic species appear vulnerable to climate change‚ but species that also occur on the mainland are likely to be less affected. Given these changes‚ restoration and carbon sequestration plantings must consider the species and provenances most suitable for future‚ rather than present‚ climates.
    Citation

    Williamson, G. J., Prior, L. D., Grose, M. R., Harris, R. M. B., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2014). Projecting canopy cover change in Tasmanian eucalypt forests using dynamically downscaled regional climate models. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1373–1386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0577-5

  28. Worth, J. R. P., Williamson, G. J., Sakaguchi, S., Nevill, P. G., & Jordan, G. J. (2014). Environmental niche modelling fails to predict Last Glacial Maximum refugia: niche shifts, microrefugia or incorrect palaeoclimate estimates? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 1186–1197. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12239

    Global Ecology and Biogeography
    Abstract

    AimMany predictions of responses to future climate change utilize ecological niche models (ENMs). We assess the capacity of these models to predict species distributions under conditions that differ from the current environment by testing whether they can predict past distributions of species.
    LocationFrom 43 degrees S to 31 degrees S in south-eastern Australia (including Tasmania).
    MethodsWe studied three dominant tree species of temperate Australian mesic forests‚ Atherosperma moschatum‚ Eucalyptus regnans and Nothofagus cunninghamii. Phylogeographic evidence indicates that these species each survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in multiple refugia. We modelled the current distribution of each species and projected those models onto LGM climates under six palaeoclimatic scenarios. The support for phylogeographic-based glacial refugia was estimated under each scenario using three different thresholds for inferring species presence/absence.
    ResultsThe LGM models under scenarios that allowed for a realistic level of rainfall failed to predict survival of the study species in refugia identified from genetic evidence‚ apart from those in perhumid western Tasmania.
    Main conclusionsCorrect prediction of nearly all modern occurrences of the species suggests that this failure of ENMs to predict refugial survival was not methodological. Rather we conclude that the existing realized niches of these species may have changed since the LGM. Such niche changes may have involved the occurrence of non-analogue climates in the LGM and some significant alteration of fundamental niche (for at least E.regnans). Our results emphasize that predictions of future impacts of climate change on biodiversity will benefit from awareness of the limitations of ENMs in predicting the extinction of populations/species. Greater knowledge of how niches have changed through time and how this relates to the characteristics of species is needed to improve the reliability of ENMs. Niche changes in plants may also affect palaeoclimatic estimates based on fossil pollen.
    Citation

    Worth, J. R. P., Williamson, G. J., Sakaguchi, S., Nevill, P. G., & Jordan, G. J. (2014). Environmental niche modelling fails to predict Last Glacial Maximum refugia: niche shifts, microrefugia or incorrect palaeoclimate estimates? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 1186–1197. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12239

  29. Koopman, M., & Knuckey, I. (2014). Advice on CITES Appendix II shark listings (p. 144). Fishwell Consulting.
    https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/39c06695-8436-49c2-b24f-c647b4672ca2/files/cites-appendix-ii-shark-listing-advice.pdf

    abstract
    Citation

    Koopman, M., & Knuckey, I. (2014). Advice on CITES Appendix II shark listings (p. 144). Fishwell Consulting.

  30. Tulloch, A. I. T., Gordon, A., & Rhodes, J. R. (2014). Identifying conservation priorities and evaluating scenarios of cumulative impacts of mining infrastructure in the Upper Spencer Gulf Region in South Australia. NERP Environmental Decisions Hub.
    http://www.environment.gov.au/science/nerp/publications/identifying-conservation-priorities-evaluating-scenarios-usg

    Abstract

    The aim of this work is to analyse the impacts of mining infrastructure scenarios on conservation values in the Upper Spencer Gulf (USG) and associated regions of mining value in South Australia. We map the habitat suitability and distribution of a wide array of Matters of National Environmental Significance (MNES)‚ State-listed species and other biodiversity features‚ such as threatened ecological communities and important RAMSAR-listed wetlands. We then identify areas of high conservation priority in the USG Region and how these areas are currently represented in protected areas with various levels of legislative security. Finally‚ we assess how the areas of high conservation value are likely to be affected under different development scenarios representing cumulative impacts of infrastructure development related to mine expansion and associated port development. We exclude impacts at the mine sites and focus only on the infrastructure. For each development scenario we report the overlap of areas proposed for development with areas of high conservation priority‚ expected losses of biodiversity (average proportion of feature distributions within the USG Region that are lost due to development) and maximum impacts on biodiversity (which biodiversity features will be most affected). We evaluate the difference in outcomes if infrastructure eliminates target species‚ but only at the infrastructure footprint‚ versus a more realistic evaluation of an infrastructure zone of impact that affects species groups in different ways and with different distances from the immediate area of development.
    Citation

    Tulloch, A. I. T., Gordon, A., & Rhodes, J. R. (2014). Identifying conservation priorities and evaluating scenarios of cumulative impacts of mining infrastructure in the Upper Spencer Gulf Region in South Australia. NERP Environmental Decisions Hub.

  31. Howard, S. (2014). Variation in chain-length of leaf wax N-Alkanes in plants and soils across Australia [B.Sc.(Hon)]. University of Adelaide.
    http://hdl.handle.net/2440/110468

    Abstract

    Long chain n-alkanes are produced as part of leaf epicuticular wax and are ideal biomarkers for palaeoclimatology and palaeoecology due to their persistence in soils and sediments. Sedimentary records often show shifts in average chain-lengths (ACL) of n-alkanes‚ both across geologic time and modern-day climate gradients and this shift may be climate driven. Australia spans a broad range of different climate conditions providing an ideal study area for investigating the relationship of ACL to climate. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) has developed a network of biodiversity monitoring plots (AusPlots and TREND) at which plant and soil samples are collected and made available to the research community. By analysing n-alkane ACL present in plants and soils collected from these sites and comparing with each site’s respective climatic conditions‚ this study examines whether ACL of leaf wax n-alkanes varies systematically in modern plants and soils in relation to climate over a N-S transect of Australia. Specifically‚ this study examines whether: (1) ACL in plants correlates with different climate variables. (2) ACL measured in soil represents a weighted average of the ACL of the dominant plant species at each site. (3) ACL signature in the soils correlates to different climate variables. This study finds no relationship between the different climate variables to ACL of modern plants. Further‚ the weighted average of the dominant plant species ACL from each site analysed is a poor predictor of the actual ACL present in the soils. In contrast to ACL from plants‚ the ACL from the soils shows a strong relationship with temperature and aridity measures. Soils may correlate better with climate because they integrate a long-term average of highly variable ACL values from all contributing organisms. This study supports climate as a driver of ACL in sediments across space and time.
    Citation

    Howard, S. (2014). Variation in chain-length of leaf wax N-Alkanes in plants and soils across Australia [B.Sc.(Hon)]. University of Adelaide.

  32. Harvey, J. M. (2014). Regional variability in Salmon Gum (Eucalyptus salmonophloia) woodlands of south-western Australia, with particular focus on the Great Western Woodlands [Master]. Curtin University.
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/257

    Abstract

    The floristic survey and analysis of 100 plots in pure salmon gum woodland in the Great Western Woodlands (GWW) region of Western Australia contributed to the classification of salmon gum communities across south–western Australia. Gradients in annual mean rainfall and temperature‚ and seasonal rainfall patterns influence the floristic patterns and delineation of five range-wide communities. Strong differences were detected between Wheatbelt and GWW communities‚ confirming the threatened status of the Wheatbelt salmon gum woodlands.
    Citation

    Harvey, J. M. (2014). Regional variability in Salmon Gum (Eucalyptus salmonophloia) woodlands of south-western Australia, with particular focus on the Great Western Woodlands [Master]. Curtin University.

  33. Miller, E. T. (2014). Evolution and ecology of two iconic Australian clades: The Meliphagidae (birds) and the Hakeinae (plants) [PhD]. University of Missouri - Saint Louis.
    https://irl.umsl.edu/dissertation/200

    Abstract

    The first part of this dissertation explores the evolution of two iconic groups of species through Australian climate space: the Meliphagidae‚ or honeyeaters‚ which are primarily nectar-feeding birds‚ and the Hakeinae‚ a section of the plant family Proteaceae. Both groups are inferred to have had their origins in Gondwanan rainforests that were widespread across Australia 45 million years ago and then diversified into more arid environments as the continent’s climate became more arid. Accordingly‚ dry environments are inhabited by closely related (phylogenetically clustered) sets of species‚ although‚ in contrast to the honeyeaters‚ Hakeinae communities are characterized by more localized diversification. The impressive and rapid Hakeinae diversification may have been driven by specialization onto a variety of highly weathered‚ nutrient-poor soil types on the ancient Australian landmass. The second part of this dissertation reviews a variety of methods to assess the phylogenetic structure of communities‚ such as local assemblages of honeyeaters and Hakeinae. Many published methods were found to be redundant‚ and some of the truly unique approaches do not measure what they purport to. Accordingly‚ only a small subset of phylogenetic community structure methods have merit. In the third part of the dissertation‚ observations on foraging by 74 of 75 Australian honeyeater species are used to explore patterns of community assembly. Australian honeyeater communities reflect both stochastic and deterministic processes. Co-occurring species exhibit substantial overlap in foraging niche space‚ in contrast to predictions from assembly theory based on competition. At the same time‚ species tend to occupy characteristic portions of niche space and available niche space is smaller in the arid regions of the continent. Within this smaller available niche space‚ arid-zone species tend to be more widely separated in niche space than species in more mesic environments.
    Citation

    Miller, E. T. (2014). Evolution and ecology of two iconic Australian clades: The Meliphagidae (birds) and the Hakeinae (plants) [PhD]. University of Missouri - Saint Louis.

  34. Newby, Z. J. (2014). Quantification of the risk of phytophthora dieback in the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area [PhD]. University of Sydney.
    http://hdl.handle.net/2123/10286

    Abstract

    Biological invasions exert great pressure on natural ecosystems and conservation
    areas‚ the latter of which have been established to conserve biodiversity. The presence of
    invasive species in natural ecosystems disrupts evolutionary processes‚ alters species
    abundance and can potentially lead to extinction (Mack et al.‚ 2000; Crowl et al.‚ 2008).
    When an invasive species is the cause of plant disease‚ the potential for that pathogen to
    survive in a new environment and the expectation of the impacts it may cause‚ can be
    estimated from locations where it already occurs. Understanding the dynamics of disease is
    important for management and research alike‚ and will hopefully make way for a proactive
    rather than reactive response.
    Citation

    Newby, Z. J. (2014). Quantification of the risk of phytophthora dieback in the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area [PhD]. University of Sydney.

2013

  1. Baker, G. H., Grevinga, L., & Banks, N. (2013). Invasions of the Portuguese millipede, Ommatoiulus moreleti, in southern Australia. Pedobiologia, 56, 213–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pedobi.2013.08.002

    Pedobiologia
    Abstract

    The Portuguese millipede‚ Ommatoiulus moreleti‚ was first recorded in Australia on Eyre Peninsula‚ South Australia in 1953. By the early 1980s‚ O. moreleti had spread to several sites across southern Australia where it had become a significant nuisance pest invading houses in large numbers in autumn and spring. At that time‚ it was predicted that O. moreleti would further expand its distribution to occupy most areas of southern Australia with mean annual rainfall of 300-2400 mm (excluding areas with summer rain maxima)‚ mean daily minimum air temperatures in winter of 0-15 degrees C and mean daily maximum temperatures in summer of 18-33 degrees C‚ based on climatic matching of where it had already spread to. This paper reports the known distribution of O. moreleti in Australia in 2013 and confirms the earlier prediction. Whilst stadial age and body size (width) of O. moreleti now vary greatly between individual sites in Australia‚ geographic scale patterns in these traits are slight‚ with both age and size only weakly correlated with rainfall and temperature. Millipedes are smaller in Australia compared with Portugal. The importance of this size variation is discussed with reference to its likely influence on fecundity and the success of an introduced biological control agent (Pelidnoptera nigripennis: Diptera‚ Sciomyzidae). Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
    Citation

    Baker, G. H., Grevinga, L., & Banks, N. (2013). Invasions of the Portuguese millipede, Ommatoiulus moreleti, in southern Australia. Pedobiologia, 56, 213–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pedobi.2013.08.002

  2. Harris, R. M. B., Porfirio, L. L., Hugh, S., Lee, G., Bindoff, N. L., Mackey, B., & Beeton, N. J. (2013). To Be Or Not to Be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate. Ecological Management and Restoration, n/a-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1111/emr.12055

    Ecological Management and Restoration
    abstract
    Citation

    Harris, R. M. B., Porfirio, L. L., Hugh, S., Lee, G., Bindoff, N. L., Mackey, B., & Beeton, N. J. (2013). To Be Or Not to Be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate. Ecological Management and Restoration, n/a-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1111/emr.12055

  3. Mellick, R., Wilson, P. D., & Rossetto, M. (2013). Post-glacial spatial dynamics in a rainforest biodiversity hot spot. Diversity, 5, 124–138. https://doi.org/10.3390/d50100124

    Diversity
    Diversity
    Abstract

    Here we investigate the interaction between ecology and climate concerning the distribution of rainforest species differentially distributed along altitudinal gradients of eastern Australia. The potential distributions of the two species closely associated with different rainforest types were modelled to infer the potential contribution of post-glacial warming on spatial distribution and altitudinal range shift. Nothofagus moorei is an integral element of cool temperate rainforest‚ including cloud forests at high elevation. This distinct climatic envelope is at increased risk with future global warming. Elaeocarpus grandis on the other hand is a lowland species and typical element of subtropical rainforest occupying a climatic envelope that may shift upwards into areas currently occupied by N. moorei. Climate envelope models wereused to infer range shift differences between the two species in the past (21 thousand years ago)‚ current and future (2050) scenarios‚ and to provide a framework to explain observed genetic diversity/structure of both species. The models suggest continuing contraction of the highland cool temperate climatic envelope and expansion of the lowland warm subtropical envelope‚ with both showing a core average increase in elevation in response to post-glacial warming. Spatial and altitudinal overlap between the species climatic envelopes was at a maximum during the last glacial maximum and is predicted to be a minimum at 2050. © 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI‚ Basel‚ Switzerland.
    Citation

    Mellick, R., Wilson, P. D., & Rossetto, M. (2013). Post-glacial spatial dynamics in a rainforest biodiversity hot spot. Diversity, 5, 124–138. https://doi.org/10.3390/d50100124

  4. Miller, E. T., Zanne, A. E., & Ricklefs, R. E. (2013). Niche conservatism constrains Australian honeyeater assemblages in stressful environments. Ecology Letters, 16, 1186–1194. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12156

    Ecology Letters
    Abstract

    The hypothesis of phylogenetic niche conservatism proposes that most extant members of a clade remain in ancestral environments because expansion into new ecological space imposes a selectional load on a population. A prediction that follows is that local assemblages contain increasingly phylogenetically clustered subsets of species with increasing difference from the ancestral environment of a clade. We test this in Australian Meliphagidae‚ a continental radiation of birds that originated in wet‚ subtropical environments‚ but subsequently spread to drier environments as Australia became more arid during the late Cenozoic. We find local assemblages are increasingly phylogenetically clustered along a gradient of decreasing precipitation. The pattern is less clear along a temperature gradient. We develop a novel phyloclimatespace to visualise the expansion of some lineages into drier habitats. Although few species extend into arid regions‚ those that do occupy larger ranges and thus local species richness does not decline predictably with precipitation.
    Citation

    Miller, E. T., Zanne, A. E., & Ricklefs, R. E. (2013). Niche conservatism constrains Australian honeyeater assemblages in stressful environments. Ecology Letters, 16, 1186–1194. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12156

  5. Nash, M. A. (2013). Alien invertebrates are invading the Australian Alps. Victorian Naturalist, The, 130(3), 127–136.
    https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=425560986580906;res=IELHSS

    Victorian Naturalist, The
    abstract
    Citation

    Nash, M. A. (2013). Alien invertebrates are invading the Australian Alps. Victorian Naturalist, The, 130(3), 127–136.

  6. Pavlova, A., Amos, J. N., Joseph, L., Loynes, K., Austin, J. J., Keogh, J. S., Stone, G. N., Nicholls, J. A., & Sunnucks, P. (2013). Perched at the mito-nuclear crossroads: divergent mitochondrial lineages correlate with environment in the face of ongoing nuclear gene flow in an Australian bird. Evolution, 67, 3412–3428. https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.12107

    Evolution
    Evolution
    Abstract

    Relationships among multilocus genetic variation‚ geography‚ and environment can reveal how evolutionary processes affect genomes. We examined the evolution of an Australian bird‚ the eastern yellow robin Eopsaltria australis‚ using mitochondrial (mtDNA) and nuclear (nDNA) genetic markers‚ and bioclimatic variables. In southeastern Australia‚ two divergent mtDNA lineages occur east and west of the Great Dividing Range‚ perpendicular to latitudinal nDNA structure. We evaluated alternative scenarios to explain this striking discordance in landscape genetic patterning. Stochastic mtDNA lineage sorting can be rejected because the mtDNA lineages are essentially distinct geographically for > 1500 km. Vicariance is unlikely: the Great Dividing Range is neither a current barrier nor was it at the Last Glacial Maximum according to species distribution modeling; nuclear gene flow inferred from coalescent analysis affirms this. Female philopatry contradicts known female-biased dispersal. Contrasting mtDNA and nDNA demographies indicate their evolutionary histories are decoupled. Distance-based redundancy analysis‚ in which environmental temperatures explain mtDNA variance above that explained by geographic position and isolation-by-distance‚ favors a nonneutral explanation for mitochondrial phylogeographic patterning. Thus‚ observed mito-nuclear discordance accords with environmental selection on a female-linked trait‚ such as mtDNA‚ mtDNA-nDNA interactions or genes on W-chromosome‚ driving mitochondrial divergence in the presence of nuclear gene flow.
    Citation

    Pavlova, A., Amos, J. N., Joseph, L., Loynes, K., Austin, J. J., Keogh, J. S., Stone, G. N., Nicholls, J. A., & Sunnucks, P. (2013). Perched at the mito-nuclear crossroads: divergent mitochondrial lineages correlate with environment in the face of ongoing nuclear gene flow in an Australian bird. Evolution, 67, 3412–3428. https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.12107

  7. Shattuck, S. O., & O’Reilly, A. J. (2013). Revision of the Australian endemic ant genera Pseudonotoncus and Teratomyrmex (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Formicinae). Zootaxa, 3669, 287–301. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.3669.3.5

    Zootaxa
    Zootaxa
    Abstract

    The Australian endemic formicine ant genera Pseudonotoncus and Teratomyrmex are revised and their distributions and biologies reviewed. Both genera are limited to forested areas along the east coast of Australia. Pseudonotoncus is known from two species‚ P. eurysikos (new species) and P hirsutus (= P. turneri‚ new synonym)‚ while Teratomyrmex is known from three species‚ T. greavesi‚ T. substrictus (new species) and T. tinae (new species). Distribution modelling was used to examine habitat preferences within the Pseudonotoncus species.
    Citation

    Shattuck, S. O., & O’Reilly, A. J. (2013). Revision of the Australian endemic ant genera Pseudonotoncus and Teratomyrmex (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Formicinae). Zootaxa, 3669, 287–301. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.3669.3.5

  8. Shabani, F., & Kumar, L. (2013). Risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in areas suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) cultivation under various climate change projections. PLoS ONE, 8. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083404

    PLoS ONE
    PLoS ONE
    Abstract

    Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction‚ which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models‚ covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation‚ among other crops. Therefore‚ in this study‚ the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp.‚ confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs‚ was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs‚ to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp.‚ for 2030‚ 2050‚ 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%‚ 37%‚ 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus‚ compared with 37%‚ 39%‚ 43% and 42% under low risk‚ for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231‚ 212‚ 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030‚ 2050‚ 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship‚ ensure that the predictions become robust‚ rather than producing hypothetical findings‚ limited purely to publication. © 2013 Shabani‚ Kumar.
    Citation

    Shabani, F., & Kumar, L. (2013). Risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in areas suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) cultivation under various climate change projections. PLoS ONE, 8. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0083404

  9. Taylor, G. S., & Kent, D. S. (2013). Potential economic pests of solanaceous crops: a new species of Solanum-feeding psyllid from Australia and first record from New Zealand of Acizzia solanicola (Hemiptera: Psyllidae). Zootaxa, 3613, 257–273. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.3613.3.4

    Zootaxa
    Zootaxa
    Abstract

    Acizzia credoensis sp. n. is described from a single population on the native plant‚ Solanum lasiophyllum‚ from semi-arid Western Australia. The host range of Acizzia solanicola Kent & Taylor‚ initially recorded as damaging eggplant‚ S. melongena‚ in commercial crops and gardens and on wild tobacco bush‚ S. mauritianum in eastern Australia‚ is expanded to include the following Solanaceae: rock nightshade‚ S. petrophilum‚ cape gooseberry‚ Physalis peruviana‚ and an undetermined species of angel’s trumpet Brugmansia and Datura. New Zealand specimens of A. solanicola collected in early 2012 from S. mauritianum are the first record for this species from outside Australia‚ and possibly represent a very recent incursion. The potential for the solanaceous-inhabiting Psyllidae to vector Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum‚ an economically important plant pathogen‚ on native Australian Solanaceae is discussed. The occurrence of A. credoensis and A. solanicola on native Australian Solanum supports the Australian origin for the solanaceous-inhabiting Acizzia psyllids.
    Citation

    Taylor, G. S., & Kent, D. S. (2013). Potential economic pests of solanaceous crops: a new species of Solanum-feeding psyllid from Australia and first record from New Zealand of Acizzia solanicola (Hemiptera: Psyllidae). Zootaxa, 3613, 257–273. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.3613.3.4

  10. James, C., VanDerWal, J., Capon, S., Hodgson, L., Waltham, N., Ward, D., Anderson, B., & Pearson, R. (2013). Identifying climate refuges for freshwater biodiversity across Australia (p. 424). National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.
    https://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/identifying-climate-refuges-freshwater-biodiversity

    Abstract

    Severe climatic changes are predicted for Australia before the close of this century. Climate change threatens biodiversity in all ecosystems; a management and conservation priority is to identify areas and habitats — refuges — that could shelter species from the worst impacts. Freshwater ecosystems contain high biodiversity‚ but are especially vulnerable to climatic changes due to their limited extent and connectivity. In much of Australia‚ they are highly susceptible to drying resulting from high variability in temperatures and rainfall. Identifying‚ protecting and managing refuges in freshwater systems must therefore be a key component of future conservation planning and policy.
    Using a variety of approaches‚ we explore the history and definitions of refuges in freshwater systems‚ assess the relatively stability and general refugial value of large-scale regions across the Australian continent and provide three case studies demonstrating applications of the continental analysis to inform more local adaptation strategies. A review of existing concepts of refuges for biodiversity highlights a number of issues that contribute to confusion and imprecision surrounding their definition‚ and we offer a new‚ simplified concept of refuges with respect to climate change in freshwater systems.
    Projected climate changes are highly spatially and seasonally variable‚ and this project has identified freshwater regions which will remain stable in the future‚ and those which will likely not. Many regions will likely experience climates and events well outside their current range of variability‚ and we predict significant changes in community structure and ecosystem assemblages. In these areas of instability‚ we propose that refuges will be of high priority‚ for example areas where temperature changes are buffered by vegetation or topographic shading. We show that some current protected areas will fail to offer refuge and protection under projected climatic changes. We further highlight significant changes in perenniality of streams and waterholes‚ particularily in the south-western region of Australia. Finally‚ our research identified a number of knowledge gaps which currently hinder climate change adaptation research in freshwater systems. We provide a discussion of these gaps and outline the future research directions required to ultimately benefit species and habitat conservation.
    Citation

    James, C., VanDerWal, J., Capon, S., Hodgson, L., Waltham, N., Ward, D., Anderson, B., & Pearson, R. (2013). Identifying climate refuges for freshwater biodiversity across Australia (p. 424). National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.

  11. Jerry, D. R., Smith-Keune, C. S. K., Hodgson, L., Pirozzi, I., Carton, A. G., Hutson, K. S., Brazenor, A. K., Trujillo, G., Gamble, S., Collins, G., & VanDerWal, J. (2013). Vulnerability of an Iconic Australian Finfish (barramundi-Lates Calcarifer) and Aligned Industries to Climate Change Across Tropical Australia (Project No. 2010/521; p. 222). Fisheries Research and Development Corporation and James Cook Universityresearchgate.net.
    http://www.frdc.com.au/Archived-Reports/FRDC%20Projects/2010-521-DLD.pdf

    abstract
    Citation

    Jerry, D. R., Smith-Keune, C. S. K., Hodgson, L., Pirozzi, I., Carton, A. G., Hutson, K. S., Brazenor, A. K., Trujillo, G., Gamble, S., Collins, G., & VanDerWal, J. (2013). Vulnerability of an Iconic Australian Finfish (barramundi-Lates Calcarifer) and Aligned Industries to Climate Change Across Tropical Australia (Project No. 2010/521; p. 222). Fisheries Research and Development Corporation and James Cook Universityresearchgate.net.

2012

  1. Jackson, S., Finn, M., & Featherston, P. (2012). Aquatic Resource Use by Indigenous Australians in Two Tropical River Catchments: the Fitzroy River and Daly River. Human Ecology, 40, 893–908. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-012-9518-z

    Human Ecology
    abstract
    Citation

    Jackson, S., Finn, M., & Featherston, P. (2012). Aquatic Resource Use by Indigenous Australians in Two Tropical River Catchments: the Fitzroy River and Daly River. Human Ecology, 40, 893–908. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-012-9518-z

A zot_bib_web bibliography.